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MrRodgers -> RE: Jim Rogers: US nearing worse financial crisis (6/9/2011 2:30:02 PM)
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ORIGINAL: provfivetine
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ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
All except for one thing...you, the poster and Jim Rodgers are all wrong. You are wrong on almost every count. The whole idea that anytime soon, say in the next 20 years, this country is in real serious danger and are predicting some sort of financial apocolypse...are wrong. If one reads, is objective...one can learn much and gain a unique perspective. Easy for Mr. Rodgers (no relation) to predict as others have with very general effects of 'greatest depression' and 'staggering' and the resulting 'disaster' without saying just exactly how beyond debt.
Let's take a closer look, shall we ? Obama has taken on so far approx. $2.8 trillion of two years worth of Keynesian policy much like his 3 repub predecessors. Most of the deficit in yr. 1 was $700 billion for TARP, submitted and signed by Bush. Bush's total additional debt was $4.8 trillion. So Obama has not yet become the biggest borrow. The largest contributions being huge tax cuts, then starting 2 wars and adding a huge drug benefit, Those number don't go away...they remain now for all presidents.
Real estate values are dropping because their rise was pure speculation and with the immense help Bush's low interest rates. Greenspan now conveniently says he was wrong about the tax cuts. Obama has had absolutely nothing whatever to do with real estate prices. Some areas are seeing home prices going back up.
Obama cut taxes for "Joe" who was a fraud and seized upon by the repubs to purely demagogue. Seems they've convinced you...but of what exactly, I don't know from your post.
Early 83 Reagan's approval rating had hit a low of 35% and as of Dec. 1983, 2 years into Reagan unemployment was 10.8% and trust me...it was worse than this. The prime rate was more than once 20% and by 9/84 was still 17%. Housing was as much a disaster or more so then now. Fewer foreclosures because there weren't the millions of fraudulent loans and of course, 10's of millions fewer homes.
Reagan passed an enormous cut in taxes twice and then had to raise taxes, even while uneployment was higher than now. It wasn't until election year that the economy came out of a worse recession than the recent one over all.
Briefly...if we are in such bad shape or purgatory is right around the corner...then answer these questions:
Everything you've said so far says nothing about why I'm wrong. It just pins the blame on additional perpetrators. Obama inherited a bad situation and preceded to make it worse. Stop carrying Obama's water.
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Why is it that 10-year treasuries today...auctioned off at 2.95% ?
I don't know. Do you? Who's going to keep buying these?
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Why did the dollar go up today vs almost all other currencies and all of the ones that really matter...like maybe 2 or 3 ?
Not only are you wrong because the dollar actually fell earlier, but even if it rose you can't take one days worth of movement and extrapolate that to a trend. Look at the dollar index, it's flirting with 5 year lows.
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With federal debt at $14.2 trillion and GDP at $14.7, does that mean with say a $102,000 mortgage at around 3-3.5% and an income of say about $107,000/yr....I am in danger of foreclosure ? Hardly and when I am done soon, I will submit a separate post on why both parties are guilty one more than the other and why we have this chance over the next 20 years to pare our debt and go back to work. Just a chance but one if we do not take, then we are in real trouble say 40-50 years.
The federal public debt doesn't contain the liabilities of Freddie and Fannie, of Sallie Mae or any of the contingency liabilities like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid - that's over 60 trillion in debt right there on top of the 14.2 that's reported. That's more than the total world GDP.
Your foreclosure example means nothing.
We aren't in trouble in 40-50 years. We're in trouble right now.
Obama has not become the largest borrower.
Unemployment was higher during Reagan 1st term
Housing is not as hard hit than during Reagan's 1st term
The dollar was up yesterday and is up right now (I have Bloom on all day)
10 year bonds are at 2.95% in fact because of the strength in the US dollar by definition.
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If the Chinese did sell 97% of it's [one] year 'treasuries' where did the price go ? Nowhere and in fact for any single so-called sovereign wealth fund to dispose of that much in US debt, if anything was going to make those securities go up...that would. Seems they didn't have any problems finding buyers at all and why because the Chinese must...must have a strong dollar.
The to disprove these predictions even further...what do the Chinese do ? If you read down...they turn right around and buy long term US bonds. That right there is an example of how incorrect the doomsayers are or nobody would want any part of our 10 yr or longer bonds.
The federal debt contains all of the liabilities of the federal govt.
As for the US dollar vis-a-vis other currencies...it was for more then a generation $2.5 to 1 pound sterling. Many have used that as a comparative for the Euro. Well if it is anything even close, then historically...the US dollar is much higher flirting at $1.50 to the Euro, a place considered by many...an absolute low. If the Euro goes lower than and it really is now...dollars are King.
You cannot just postulate that Obama has made anything worse. Worse than what ? Worse than what would have been had we not bailed-out the billionaires. Worse than the policies of borrow and spend that got us here especially when the borrowing and spending wasn't until now...all on the books ?
If a CEO of a large private firm borrows for 8 yrs. while paying themselves like royalty...runs up a variety of unfunded obligations for their friends and the board, would it take more than two years to keep it out of bankruptcy and without any opposition at all ? Yes it would.
We have a president, presiding over a repub house whose first priority is not the debt, is not jobs but to make Obama a 1 term president. I label them scum bag, corrupt, traitors closer than being such than any dem who opposed these wars.
I look for the dems should Obama lose, to tell their colleagues that their first priority would be to make the new repub pres,...a one term man too.
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