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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 5:34:23 PM   
thompsonx


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quote:

I am so fucked


You say that like it is a bad thing

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 5:42:17 PM   
thompsonx


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quote:

Some would say that I am ridiculously optimistic. I can't help but have confidence that even as of 2008, that we would recover, that life would be fine, and that I would succeed


I am with you on this one.
There were a few moments in the 60's where I was brought face to face with my potential mortality. Since I became a civilian though I have never doubted my ability to succeed and prosper.


< Message edited by thompsonx -- 6/10/2011 5:55:01 PM >

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 5:54:06 PM   
thompsonx


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quote:

When you see a loaf of bread (not the premium kind) in the 5- 6 dollar range it's going to become obvious to most people what lies ahead.


Flour cost me .40 cents a pound. Essentially a pound of flour and a pound of water make a two pound loaf of bread...that is a long way from the $3.00 a two pound loaf of bread cost in the store or the five-six you are predicting

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 6:25:14 PM   
tj444


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quote:

ORIGINAL: thompsonx

quote:

When you see a loaf of bread (not the premium kind) in the 5- 6 dollar range it's going to become obvious to most people what lies ahead.


Flour cost me .40 cents a pound. Essentially a pound of flour and a pound of water make a two pound loaf of bread...that is a long way from the $3.00 a two pound loaf of bread cost in the store or the five-six you are predicting


Hmmm,.. maybe its not the cost of the flour, perhaps its the cost of all the additives, preservatives and fillers they add to it.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 8:45:46 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

We have been heading towards disaster for a long time now. I mean how long can you keep inflating the currency with out serious consequences ?

  I believe in being prepared. I have a food supply, a garden, a seed bank and canning supplies as hyper inflation being the most likely scenario food will be more difficult to come by and a valuable commodity.



If the voters with brains prevail Obama will not have had time to screw things up as badly as Ford and Carter, and no gardens were needed then.

World food prices are high, and it's coming home here, regardless of who sits in the White House.

Rising fuel prices are only going to exacerbate the problem.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 8:51:34 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

So..... now what about you????


I'm not an extremist.

I do look at trends. When Bush ignored Greenspan's warning about the reckless irresponsibility of his tax cuts, followed by two invasions deliberately keep out of the budget but continually funded through additional appropriations, it wasn't hard to see financial times were going to change. When oil crept up, and fresh produce tripled, what had formerly been more than what I wanted to get into became something I wanted to do, and thus, my orchards, vineyards, berry patches and gardens were born.

All that's changed since then is the rhetoric. I didn't foresee the mortgage derivative mess or the credit crunch, but all that meant for me is to work from my savings instead of cheap short-term credit.

Today, I'm designing/building a passive solar home, partially earth-sheltered, needing near zero energy. Next year, I'll add a windmill for electricity. I grow and freeze my produce for the year. I eat better, and I'm largely self-sufficient. More importantly, though, the home takes advantage of a beautiful spot, significantly enhancing my quality of day to day life.

I also own quite a bit of timber, and have saved well for retirement and emergencies, in diverse investments. I don't need boom times to have it prove profitable. If they come again, I'll reap the difference by moving partially into money markets. If not, I'll live off the dividends.

My accumulated work will let me retire with my health insurance.

So I'm about as well-situated as is possible.



< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 6/10/2011 8:58:53 PM >

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 9:42:51 PM   
tj444


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

So..... now what about you????


I'm not an extremist.

I do look at trends. When Bush ignored Greenspan's warning about the reckless irresponsibility of his tax cuts, followed by two invasions deliberately keep out of the budget but continually funded through additional appropriations, it wasn't hard to see financial times were going to change. When oil crept up, and fresh produce tripled, what had formerly been more than what I wanted to get into became something I wanted to do, and thus, my orchards, vineyards, berry patches and gardens were born.

All that's changed since then is the rhetoric. I didn't foresee the mortgage derivative mess or the credit crunch, but all that meant for me is to work from my savings instead of cheap short-term credit.

Today, I'm designing/building a passive solar home, partially earth-sheltered, needing near zero energy. Next year, I'll add a windmill for electricity. I grow and freeze my produce for the year. I eat better, and I'm largely self-sufficient. More importantly, though, the home takes advantage of a beautiful spot, significantly enhancing my quality of day to day life.

I also own quite a bit of timber, and have saved well for retirement and emergencies, in diverse investments. I don't need boom times to have it prove profitable. If they come again, I'll reap the difference by moving partially into money markets. If not, I'll live off the dividends.

My accumulated work will let me retire with my health insurance.

So I'm about as well-situated as is possible.

I remember now, you were talking about building in another thread. I would love to have a garden again, very soon but right now I have no idea where i will be living. I used to freeze veggies and do canning and make jams and things like that. When i decide where my base will be, I will do that again. I would do the solar and windmill things too but it would depend on where I ended up. I am not sure a windmill would be allowed in the city and in SoCal, some cities see solar as another cash cow and apparently charge as much as $15,000 just for a building permit to put solar on your house. Talk about crazy or what?

I am curious, how much land do you have? And what got you into the timber thing? Were they trees you planted yourself?

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 9:52:22 PM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

I am curious, how much land do you have? And what got you into the timber thing? Were they trees you planted yourself?


The land is modest, three and a half acres, but big enough to afford a lot of flexibility. I bought it several years ago, a field, when I was just starting and struggling. I bought the trees from the state, very cheap, and with support from the state forester. I planted every single tree myself, with a shovel. Today, I live in a beautiful meadow surrounded by a forest. Small changes make big differences over time.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 11:04:58 PM   
tj444


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

I am curious, how much land do you have? And what got you into the timber thing? Were they trees you planted yourself?


The land is modest, three and a half acres, but big enough to afford a lot of flexibility. I bought it several years ago, a field, when I was just starting and struggling. I bought the trees from the state, very cheap, and with support from the state forester. I planted every single tree myself, with a shovel. Today, I live in a beautiful meadow surrounded by a forest. Small changes make big differences over time.


Yes, you can do a lot with a few acres, especially if you go into it with a plan in your mind already. I think I would plant Paulownia trees for timber tho or another kind of tree I read about, as long as they could handle the zone.

One thing that I couldnt live without tho, having good internet! I know there is satelite internet but not sure how reliable it is or how fast.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/10/2011 11:12:27 PM   
Musicmystery


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DSL offers 3 meg service.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 5:27:26 AM   
Aneirin


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Prophets of Doom, yeah that fits my mentality, but in a way that has been my employment mentality for years where I was employed as a troubleshooter of sorts which meant plan for the worst case scenario and if it doesn't happen, then it's a plus, but if it's not a plus then the situation is covered. In anything I do I tend to err towards what is the worst that can happen and deal with it from there.

As to the future when if ever that comes, I am relying on skills, things I can do, which is quite a lot when one thinks about it, and  I am generally highly skilled in those being self taught with an interest. But one thing I did do years back, was ignore all those who said train for whatever as that is where the money will be, instead, I modelled myself on the craftsmen of old, those that achieved without electricity, the result being, I can work materials in the most primitive of technologies and repair many machines and systems from an age where we did not throw things away because it was broke or was no longer in fashion. I see the make do and mend mentality coming back as resources become more expensive or finite.

As it is around here, like many less wealthy and some better off parts of the country there exists a community scheme that has just grown out of need, a system of trade, where skills are traded, no money changes hands, for money is banned within the scheme and that because when money changes hands the system evolves into that which we are trying to escape from.

But of society, maybe what society has become, who knows, perhaps it was always the same or even worse and those that see the doom are those that perhaps don't want to be part of society or as another said, wish to profit from the fear they create, but there has always existed those that do not want to connect with the majority. But with the last few centuries many people came down from the hills to seek the big money that was in the major conurbations, the mass industrial drive made that very attractive, but when the work dried up, everyone stayed where they were, perhaps hoping because it was there before, it will come back. Perhaps we have now hit the realisation that as technology moves ever forward, the work will not come back as it is no longer needed, so why hang around depending on what society cannot create, may as well do one's own thing and get out of the rat race. But even with the desire to return to the hills there is a problem, for that is now largely sewn up, government regulation has stamped it's foot behind us to keep us where it can use and control us, for without our money, they can do nothing and they know that, it is just a pity many of the populace don't.

< Message edited by Aneirin -- 6/11/2011 5:28:36 AM >


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Everything we are is the result of what we have thought, the mind is everything, what we think, we become - Guatama Buddha

Conservatism is distrust of people tempered by fear - William Gladstone

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 6:08:03 AM   
OrionTheWolf


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~FR~

" It is perfectly obvious that the whole world is going to hell. The only possible chance that it might not is that we do not attempt to prevent it from doing so. " Robert Oppenheimer

"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all possible worlds; and the pessimist fears this is true. " James Branch Cabell

_____________________________

When speaking of slaves people always tend to ignore this definition "One who is abjectly subservient to a specified person or influence."

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 6:55:29 AM   
tj444


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

DSL offers 3 meg service.


But back to the doom and gloom & extreme thing.
I actually like it, the extremes when they happen, that is where money can be made when one is prepared and waits for the turn arounds and right time. But that means believing in yourself against pretty much the rest of the world, cuz they are screaming that the sky is falling (like now and for the last 2 years or so). People buying real estate right now and who buy for the long term will eventually make a lot of money, just like those that bought after the depression in the 30s. People can make $ going long or short, depending on the extreme and commodity play.
There was some famous investor (cant remember exactly who right now) that said to buy when there is blood in the streets.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 7:57:29 AM   
Musicmystery


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quote:

There was some famous investor (cant remember exactly who right now) that said to buy when there is blood in the streets.

attributed to Philippe de Rothschild (1902 – 1988)

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 12:25:13 PM   
Moonhead


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444


quote:

ORIGINAL: thompsonx

quote:

When you see a loaf of bread (not the premium kind) in the 5- 6 dollar range it's going to become obvious to most people what lies ahead.


Flour cost me .40 cents a pound. Essentially a pound of flour and a pound of water make a two pound loaf of bread...that is a long way from the $3.00 a two pound loaf of bread cost in the store or the five-six you are predicting


Hmmm,.. maybe its not the cost of the flour, perhaps its the cost of all the additives, preservatives and fillers they add to it.

High fructose corn syrup is cheap though: that's why manufacturers started using that muck instead of (pricier) cane syrup in the first place...

_____________________________

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 1:48:31 PM   
Musicmystery


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Sugar is far cheaper...or would be, without the massive tariffs we impose here.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 2:58:22 PM   
Moonhead


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Well, that's the problem in a nutshell, isn't it? It was a set of stupid import tariffs to stop Americans buying Cuban produce that hiked Coke's overheads and set them looking for an alternative in the first place. Always baffled me that, as there's a lot of the southern 'States that would be ideal for farming sugar cane (it's probably about all you actually could grow in Florida besides mosquitos, for a start) but there's almost very little domestic production of sugar cane. Are the tariffs being applied to domestic produce as well as the imported stuff?

_____________________________

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(Simon R Green on the late James Herbert)

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 3:03:19 PM   
Musicmystery


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No, that's not it--this goes back to the early 1800s....

The Great Sugar Shaft
by James Bovard, April 1998

The U.S. government has devotedly jacked up American sugar prices far above world market prices since the close of the War of 1812. The sugar industry is one of America's oldest infant industries — yet it dodders with the same uncompetitiveness that it showed during the second term of James Madison. Few cases better illustrate how trade policy can be completely immune to economic sense.

The U.S. imposed high tariffs on sugar in 1816 in order to placate the growers in the newly acquired Louisiana territory. In the 1820s, sugar plantation owners complained that growing sugar in the United States was "warring with nature" because the U.S. climate was unsuited to sugar production. Naturally, the plantation owners believed that all Americans should be conscripted into the "war." Protectionists warned that if sugar tariffs were lifted, then the value of slaves working on the sugar plantations would collapse — thus causing a general fall in slave values throughout the South.

In 1934, the U.S. government imposed sugar import quotas to complement high sugar tariffs and direct government subsidies to sugar growers. By the 1950s, the U.S. sugar program was renown for its byzantine, impenetrable regulations. Like most arcane systems, the sugar program vested vast power in the few people who understood and controlled the system. As author Douglas Cater observed in 1964, "In reviewing the sugar quotas, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Cooley has had the habit of receiving the [foreign representatives interested in acquiring sugar quotas] one by one to make their presentations, then summoning each afterward to announce his verdict. By all accounts, he has a zest for this princely power and enjoys the frequent meetings with foreign ambassadors to confer on matters of sugar and state."

Sugar quotas have also provided a safety net for former congressmen, many of whom have been hired as lobbyists for foreign sugar producers.

Since 1980, the sugar program has cost consumers and taxpayers the equivalent of more than $3 million for each American sugar grower. Some people win the lottery; other people grow sugar. Congressmen justify the sugar program as protecting Americans from the "roller-coaster of international sugar prices," as Rep. Byron Dorgan (D.-N.D.) declared. Unfortunately, Congress protects consumers from the roller-coaster by pegging American sugar prices on a level with the Goodyear blimp floating far above the amusement park. U.S. sugar prices have been as high as or higher than world prices for 44 of the last 45 years.

Sugar sold for 21 cents a pound in the United States when the world sugar price was less than 3 cents a pound. Each 1-cent increase in the price of sugar adds between $250 million and $300 million to consumers' food bills. A Commerce Department study estimated that the sugar program was costing American consumers more than $3 billion a year.

Congress, in a moment of economic sobriety, abolished sugar quotas in June 1974. But, on May 5, 1982, President Reagan reimposed import quotas. The quotas sought to create an artificial shortage of sugar that would drive up U.S. prices and force consumers to unknowingly support American sugar growers. And by keeping the subsidies covert and off-budget, quotas did not interfere with Reagan's bragging about how he was cutting wasteful government spending.

Between May 1982 and November 1984, the U.S. government reduced the sugar import quotas six times as the USDA desperately tried to balance foreign and domestic sugar supplies with domestic demand.

While USDA bureaucrats worked overtime to minutely regulate the quantity of sugar allowed into the United States, a bomb went off that destroyed their best-laid plans. On November 6, 1984, both Coca Cola and Pepsi announced plans to stop using sugar in soft drinks, replacing it with high-fructose corn syrup. At the drop of two press releases, U.S. sugar consumption decreased by more than 500,000 tons a year — equal to the entire quotas of 25 of the 42 nations allowed to sell sugar to the United States. The quota program drove sugar prices so high that it wrecked the market for sugar — and thereby destroyed the government's ability to control sugar supply and demand. On January 16, 1985, Agriculture Secretary John Block announced an effective 20 percent cut in the quota for all exporting countries.

Sugar quotas made it very profitable to import products with high amounts of sugar. As a USDA report noted, "The incentive to circumvent restrictions had led to creation of new products which had never been traded in the United States and which were designed specifically for the U.S. market." On June 28, 1983, Reagan declared an embargo on imports of certain blends and mixtures of sugar and other ingredients in bulk containers. Naturally, businesses began importing some of the same products in smaller containers. The Economic Report of the President noted, "Entrepreneurs were importing high-sugar content products, such as iced-tea mix, and then sifting their sugar content from them and selling the sugar at the high domestic price." On November 7, 1984, the Customs Service announced new restrictions on sugar- and sweetener-blend imports.

Federal restrictions made sugar smuggling immensely profitable. The Justice Department caught 30 companies in a major sting operation named Operation Bittersweet. Federal prosecutors were proud that the crackdown netted $16 million in fines for the government — less than one-tenth of 1 percent of what the sugar program cost American consumers during the 1980s. The Justice Department was more worried about businessmen's bringing in cheap foreign sugar than about the sugar lobby's bribing of congressmen to extort billions of dollars from consumers. (Public Voice for Food and Health Policy, a Washington, D.C., consumer lobby, reported that the sugar lobby donated more than $3 million to congressmen between 1984 and 1989.)

A few thousand sugar growers became the tail that wagged the dog of American foreign policy. Early in 1982, Reagan announced the Caribbean Basin Initiative (CBI) to aid Caribbean nations by giving them expanded access to the U.S. market. In his May 5, 1982, announcement, Reagan promised, "The interests of foreign suppliers are also protected, since this system provides such suppliers reasonable access to a stable, higher-priced U.S. market. In arriving at this decision, we have taken fully into account the CBI." But between 1981 and 1988, USDA slashed the amount of sugar that Caribbean nations could ship to the United States by 74 percent. The State Department estimated that the reductions in sugar-import quotas cost Third World nations $800 million a year. The sugar program has indirectly become a full-employment program for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency, as many poor Third World farmers who previously grew sugar cane are now harvesting marijuana.

The Reagan administration responded to sugar-import cutbacks by creating a new foreign-aid program — the Quota Offset Program — to give free food to countries hurt by reductions. In 1986, the United States. dumped almost $200 million of free food on Caribbean nations and the Philippines. As the Wall Street Journal reported, "By flooding local markets and driving commodity prices down, the U.S. is making it more difficult for local farmers to replace sugar with other crops." Richard Holwill, deputy assistant secretary of state, observed, "It makes us look like damn fools when we go down there and preach free enterprise."

The U.S. government's generosity to sugar farmers victimizes other American businesses. Brazil retaliated against the United States for cutting its sugar quota by reducing its purchases of American grain. In the Dominican Republic, former sugar growers are now producing wheat and corn, thereby providing more competition for American farmers. American candy producers are at a disadvantage because foreign companies can buy their sugar at much lower prices. Since 1982, dextrose and confectionery coating imports have risen tenfold and chocolate imports are up fivefold.

The sugar program has also decreased soybean exports. In the Red River valley of Minnesota, heavily subsidized sugar growers have bid up the rents on farmland by more than 50 percent. As a result, relatively unsubsidized soybean farmers can no longer find sufficient land to grow soybeans, America's premier export crop. This illustrates how restrictions on imports become restrictions on exports.

The sugar program is corporate welfare in its most overt form. The General Accounting Office estimated that only 17 of the nation's largest sugar cane farmers received more than half of all the benefits provided by the sugar cane subsidies. GAO also estimated that the 28 largest Florida sugar cane producers received almost 90 percent of all the benefits enjoyed by Florida sugar producers from federal programs.

The number of American jobs destroyed by sugar quotas since 1980 exceeds the total number of sugar farmers in the United States. The Commerce Department estimates that the high price of sugar has destroyed almost 9,000 U.S. jobs in food manufacturing since 1981. In early 1990, the Brach Candy Company announced plans to close its Chicago candy factory and relocate 3,000 jobs to Canada because of the high cost of sugar in the United States. Thanks to the cutback in sugar imports, 10 sugar refineries have closed in recent years and 7,000 refinery jobs have been lost. The United States has only 13,000 sugar farmers.

Many observers expected that, with the Republican Revolution in Congress, the sugar program would be abolished when the new farm bill was written in 1996. Instead, the sugar program's survival became one of the starkest symbols of that revolution's collapse. Two-hundred and twenty-three House members cosponsored a bill to get rid of the sugar program; but, when push came to shove, the sugar lobby persuaded several sponsors of the bill (including freshman conservative stalwarts Rep. Steve Stockman [R.-Tex.] and Rep. Sue Myrick [R.-N.C.]) to switch sides. The House voted 217-208 to continue the program.

Environmentalists were anxious about the adverse effects of Florida sugar cane production on the Everglades. Congress did not choose the obvious solution — ending subsides that irrationally encourage sugar production in a fragile area — but instead voted $200 million to clean up the Everglades by buying some of the sugar cane fields from farmers.

There is no reason why the United States must produce its own sugar cane. Sugar is cheaper in Canada primarily because Canada has almost no sugar growers — and thus no trade restrictions or government support programs. Paying lavish subsidies to produce sugar in Florida makes as much sense as creating a federal subsidy program to grow bananas in Massachusetts. The only thing that could make American sugar cane farmers world-class competitive would be massive global warming.

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/11/2011 3:20:16 PM   
Moonhead


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Very interesting read, thanks. I'd always thought the punitive import tariffs were a '50s thing aimed at Cuba and had no idea they went that far back.
13,000 sugar farmers have more political clout than elected politicians, in order to allow them to keep producing heavily subsidised produce at a ludicrously inflated price and people claim that the free market works fine in America? Bloody hell...

_____________________________

I like to think he was eaten by rats, in the dark, during a fog. It's what he would have wanted...
(Simon R Green on the late James Herbert)

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RE: Prophets of Doom - 6/13/2011 8:24:27 AM   
thompsonx


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead

Very interesting read, thanks. I'd always thought the punitive import tariffs were a '50s thing aimed at Cuba and had no idea they went that far back.
13,000 sugar farmers have more political clout than elected politicians, in order to allow them to keep producing heavily subsidised produce at a ludicrously inflated price and people claim that the free market works fine in America? Bloody hell...



The only free enterprise left in my country are dope dealers and whores.

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