rawtape
Posts: 105
Joined: 10/31/2006 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: DarkSteven The US ain't gonna release it until Pakistan starts working with us. Wonder what'll happen. WAY overdue in my opinion. If they won't be an ally, why should we shell out? Let me preface this by saying that I am not the biggest fan of Pakistan, what with having between 1-3 million of my countrymen slaughtered by their armed forces during the 1971 war. That said, how one views this decision to withhold aid depends on one's notions of the US role in Asia. I think it will just confirm their (the Pakistanis') opinion of the US as an unreliable ally and drive them to seek further support from China (which has already built a strategic deep sea port in Pakistani territory at the apex of the Arabian Sea and at the entrance of the Persian Gulf, and is willing to sell Pakistan the J-20, their 5th generation stealth fighter). It is also quite possible that this escalating tit-for-tat game (recall that the Pakistanis withdrew the visas of numerous US agents in Pakistan, and this withdrawal of aid is partly a response to that) will also have repercussions for American troops in Afghanistan (transit for the bulk of the supplies is through Pakistan). Note that if the Pakistani government were to play that card, it would also go over well with their civilian population, who see the US as favouring India, and have not been overly happy with what they viewed as US encroachment on their sovereignty. So I see this ultimately as a loss of influence of the US in South Asia, with a concomitant increase of that of China. Hardball is effective when one has someone cornered and at a serious disadvantage -- which is not quite the case with Pakistan which has been in this situation previously (the aid package was not that large in the past either) and which has another potential ally in the wings eager to woo them. Now, I personally don't see this as a poor decision on the part of the current US administration. Given the current state of the economy, the US would be hard put not to retrench. Moreover, the mood of the populace (according to recent polls) has been turning more and more isolationist. And, unlike some other posters, I am not overly concerned about how changes in the Pakistani regime might affect the role of their nuclear weapons. Governments (as opposed to non-state actors) tend to be rational and, except for the US, all other countries possessing nuclear weapons have used them only as deterrents. But I can understand others not being too happy about ceding ground to China.
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