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Aswad -> RE: Media and the Oslo attacks (7/29/2011 8:36:14 PM)
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We're not expecting the figure to remain unchanged, even now that everyone is accounted for.
There were close to a hundred people injured, if memory serves, most of them from the island. And the injuries were sufficiently severe that it was a minor miracle that so many of the injured could be saved. Onsite triage was between medevac, ambulance, body pile and 'give them a blanket until someone has time to get them to the hospital'. Medevac in this case means a "mobile hospital" helicopter with a trauma doctor and nurses in it to begin definitive treatment en route to the emergency room. Six of those units were in continuous operation throughout the day and most of the night, while some fourty ambulances took care of the rest.
Bear in mind that these weren't the kind of injuries you see in a common shooting.
This is more like being hit with a shotgun at close range.
The bullets break up on their way into the body, shrapnel flying every which way, shredding the tissue far from the point of impact and delivering a concussive pulse that frequently damages vessels, lungs, intestines and spinal cord. It's an "improvement" over hollowpoint ammunition, intended for use only in firefights inside the cabin of an in-flight airplane, where any degree of overpenetration (or failure to disintegrate on a missed shot) may result in catastrophic loss of life.
Now, load a Ruger AC556 (comparable to the M14) with these and shoot everyone twice.
If those hundred-ish injured actually survive this, that will be a minor miracle. And it will take a year before those survivors are ready for rehab. Death from firearm injuries is not necessarily immediate. Even after you have stabilized them, it takes time to see how things go, especially when there is so extensive tissue damage. Bear in mind that bullets drive bacteria deep into the body, and that these people were on an island with natural soil, and most were exposed to the water. Infections are going to be a major concern. As such, the figure of 77 dead should be seen as 75 DOA and excellent hospital care only losing 2 in the second peak.
The third peak is when we're probably going to start seeing this figure climb noticeably again.
That'll be around the time the trial preliminaries get going.
Not that I want to sound pessimistic or alarmist or anything, it's just not a good idea to assume we've seen the final figure yet. That can be problematic when we do get to the third critical peak, for anyone emotionally invested in the event. Infections take time to run their course in people with a functioning immune system, and even with good antibiotics and a low prevalence of resistant strains, there will be a lot of people going septic over the next few months. Successful treatment of the infections (viri, bacteria, yeasts, diatoms, nematodes, fungi and so forth) will determine how many of the injured will live, and some will experience recurring issues with that (particularly the ones which get yeasts or fungi). Even so, the drugs used, and the infections themselves, will leave many with disabilities beyond what the injuries are directly causative of.
We're not out of the woods yet.
My thoughts definitely go out to the medical staff that have been sorely tried, and whose trials are not yet over. They can't take much time off to process this, as they are critical personell without a lot to spare, in jobs where they are needed, and will continue to be needed. They note that they could've dealt with even greater numbers than they got, but that's a testament to good organizational ability in a crisis, not a statement of excess capacity. Most of their processing will have to be done on the job. And these patients will be with them for at least one year, except for a lucky few, I expect.
Health,
al-Aswad.
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