RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (Full Version)

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mnottertail -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 12:18:54 PM)

Well, it begs the question, hows this gonna look for the fall sweeps?



Moonhead -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 12:20:17 PM)

The news shows should do better in the ratings than they normally do: a war in the middle east is always good business for them, isn't it?



mnottertail -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 12:23:06 PM)

This may be Ruperts revenge. His big comeback. Headline:  'JEWS FIGHT TO SAVE FAUX NUZE'.....or the like. But I do not see the neo-cons venturing their armchair generalship here that Israel shouldn't be telegraphing their war plans or their parlez plans so far ahead of the event curve.

But they would were it us.



Louve00 -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 4:09:31 PM)

I heard someone mentioning Russia earlier?

Russia will begin loading fuel rods into Iran’s new nuclear reactor on Friday. Ultimately, the Bushehr complex will produce Plutonium (Pu239) much faster than centrifuges can deliver Uranium (U235), and Pu239 is better material for atomic weapons. But unlike attacks on similar reactors in Iraq (1981) and Syria (2007), the Israelis will not attempt to destroy Bushehr in the next two days or, indeed, two months. Why not?

I have no opinions or bias on this, either way...except I found it while surfing the net and remembered this thread.  I thoughts the article...and the strategies involved were interesting.

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2010/08/19/will-israel-attack-irans-nuclear-reactor/



hardcybermaster -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 4:20:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy

Okay...I am willing once again to take bets. That an unprovoked attack by Israel upon Iran will not occur in the next 12 months.

you people are idiots.

I will cover your bets, this is utter bullshit.
$100 says Israel will not attack Iran in the next 12 months?
who wants some action?
I will even give you 2/1



rawtape -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 6:20:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

quote:

ORIGINAL: rawtape

quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy
Okay...I am willing once again to take bets. That an unprovoked attack by Israel upon Iran will not occur in the next 12 months.
you people are idiots.

Why don't you first define what you consider provocation, DG? And give us examples of the provocations that led to pre-emptive attacks on the Syrian nuclear plant (Operation Orchard) and the Iraqi Osirak reactor (Operation Babylon)?

Given that the consensus among US Intelligence Agencies (who are preseumably viewing the same intelligence as Mossad and Netanyahu) is that Iran is NOT building a necular weapons program, won't any attack on Iran under the pretext of "preventing/destroying Iranian nuclear capability' be an unprovoked attack?

The only way I can see this changing is if (a) definitive evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program emerges and (b) if Israel was under clear and immediate threat of attack from such weapons. Even if (a) turns out to be correct, unless Israel is under immediate threat, there is still no justification for an attack. Attacking another country just because it has weapons one side fears is completely unacceptable. The threat of attack has to be clear, credible, and imminent. All other alternatives must be exhausted first.

As Israel has been consistently predicting the imminent nuclear arming of Iran since 1992 at least, I would suggest that Israeli pronouncements on this issue be taken with a large pinch of salt. Their track record to date reads: 100% wrong.

TB, note that the attacks on the Syrian nuclear plant and the Iraqi Osirak reactors were carried out when Israel was not under clear and immediate threat of attacks. Note also the deployment of the Stuxnet worm against the controllers of the centrifuges used by Iran for uranium enrichment. While I agree with you that all other alternatives should be exhausted first, Israel hasn't, in the past, played by these rules.

Note also that an attack would invite reprisals, probably involving Hamas, which could affect the vote in the General Assembly. I am not saying that an attack WILL occur; in fact, given the possible consequences, I hope it does not. But when someone as far to the right as Dagan suggests that Netanyahu is considering it, I admit to some trepidation.



jlf1961 -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 6:37:52 PM)

Considering that this RUMOR has gone around every years since Bush II second term, I doubt very much if it will happen.



rawtape -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 6:45:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy
quote:

ORIGINAL: rawtape
Why don't you first define what you consider provocation, DG? And give us examples of the provocations that led to pre-emptive attacks on the Syrian nuclear plant (Operation Orchard) and the Iraqi Osirak reactor (Operation Babylon)?

In 1981 you were 12. 'nuff said.

I didn't realize senility was prerequisite for carrying on a discussion with you.

quote:

Operation Orchard. 2007 both the white House and the CIA confirmed that it was a nuclear facility with a military purpose. There was no outcry from any neighboring Arab nations and the IAEA found significant traces of uranium at the site.
It was a reactor that was not supposed to be there and they blew it up. Provocation? You are Isral and an illegal and unauthorized nuclear reactor is being built, what do you do?

So, by the same logic, wouldn't the neighbouring Arab states be justified in carrying out a pre-emptive attack on Dimona, where Israel reprocesses plutonium for its nuclear weapons? Or do different rules apply to Israel?

quote:

This is what I do know. Israel will not attack Iran in September and that wilbur is an idiot.
Which two of those points would you like to argue?

Nice little use of rhetorical tricks there, DG, trite, but nice -- using poor willy as a butt. And it's nice to see you that confident. As I've mentioned repeatedly, I would share the same confidence if Dagan, Gabi Ashkenazi, etc. were still at their posts. Without them, Netanyahu's decisions are harder to predict.



Termyn8or -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 7:10:12 PM)

"I didn't realize senility was prerequisite for carrying on a discussion with you."

That has got to be the snappy comeback of the day.

"So, by the same logic, wouldn't the neighbouring Arab states be justified in carrying out a pre-emptive attack on Dimona, where Israel reprocesses plutonium for its nuclear weapons? Or do different rules apply to Israel? "

I would plaster that on every newpaper front page, billboard and every other place people could see it. Indeed the rules are different, but why ?

I think they are playing with fire. Nobody is even thinking about Russia, and they didn't just disappear. They have oil, and oil is more important than money when it comes to fueling a war machine. It's pretty clear whose side they're on now. Cooperating with Iran's nuclear program isn't exactly an indication that they are enemies.

If Israel goes through with it, the US is right in the fire rather than the frying pan. If that happens I suspect Russia will get into it, almost for sure. No more cold war, it will be a hot war. WW3 folks, unless these megalomaniacs come to their senses.

And the worst part of it, considering natural resources, ecomonic state and a few other things, "we" will probably lose. My apologies to the flagwavers, but I think it's true. Our chances are not very good at all.

T^T



Aneirin -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 8:52:00 PM)

I also think if the US became involved, it would lose, and that because after two and a half wars in ten years, neither of which seems to be an outright success, perhaps belief in the military machine, or rather it's controllers is somewhat eroded. That coupled with the fact that the US has an economic problem which is affecting many of it's countrymen, countrymen who know damned well it was their own country that caused their problems, somehow I just don't believe the American people will stomach another waste of American lives and resources over someone elses problem.

Furthermore, I think it unlikely Britain will become involved for the same reasons, perhaps it is, we have had enough of it all, as let's face it, we not any safer, and not any richer for our sacrifices. The other thing we have to be aware of, is domestic terrorism, as undoubtedly aiding the Israelis will be seen as going to war against Islam again, and what's worse, is aiding the Jews against Islam. Added to that, is the fact that we have had our armed forces severely cut, equipment gone and military personel to be laid off, will we have the fighting capacity even if we did aid the Israelis, well, one thing is for sure, we won't have a carrier fleet unless the french will hire theirs out undoubtedly at ridiculous rental rates that might show the money saved by scrapping our fleet as a complete waste of time.



Aswad -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 8:58:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

Any Israeli attack on Iran (with or without US support) will be a belligerent aggressive act of war.


Agreed.

quote:

It runs the risk of plunging the entire region into full scale war.


Not just the region.

quote:

And it's far from clear that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons anyway.


This, however, I must arrest you on. Stuxnet is pretty clear evidence that intelligence has not only confirmed the existence of a fissile materials refinement plant, but indeed obtained some rather detailed specifications. It targetted a specific bit of control logic from one manufacturer, a bit that only does one thing: control the stability of a 90.000 RPM centrifuge used for separation of fissile U-235 from other isotopes. Shortly after it made its way into Iran, there was an explosive event consistent with the sudden, catastrophic failure of Zippe centrifuges with a significant payload.

And before commenting anything to the effect that it may have been planted, allow me to explain. Constructing the Stuxnet targetted digital attack virus would take experts in several fields working for at least a year with immense resources and hundreds of people in some setting where they have incredibly competent and effective management. Quite simply, it is one of the most impressive feats of human computing history. There is no known private organization or university with the skills, let alone resources, to do this. But the cyberwar department of the IDF, however, is known to possess the resources and many of the skills, while nationalists in universities around the country could supply the remaining expertise, though it would still count as a massive operation. Disabling the international stock market would be child's play in comparison.

Israel would neither expend the effort, nor know what to target, without conclusive intelligence.

Health,
al-Aswad.



tweakabelle -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/1/2011 9:08:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rawtape


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

quote:

ORIGINAL: rawtape

quote:

ORIGINAL: domiguy
Okay...I am willing once again to take bets. That an unprovoked attack by Israel upon Iran will not occur in the next 12 months.
you people are idiots.

Why don't you first define what you consider provocation, DG? And give us examples of the provocations that led to pre-emptive attacks on the Syrian nuclear plant (Operation Orchard) and the Iraqi Osirak reactor (Operation Babylon)?

Given that the consensus among US Intelligence Agencies (who are preseumably viewing the same intelligence as Mossad and Netanyahu) is that Iran is NOT building a necular weapons program, won't any attack on Iran under the pretext of "preventing/destroying Iranian nuclear capability' be an unprovoked attack?

The only way I can see this changing is if (a) definitive evidence of an Iranian nuclear weapons program emerges and (b) if Israel was under clear and immediate threat of attack from such weapons. Even if (a) turns out to be correct, unless Israel is under immediate threat, there is still no justification for an attack. Attacking another country just because it has weapons one side fears is completely unacceptable. The threat of attack has to be clear, credible, and imminent. All other alternatives must be exhausted first.

As Israel has been consistently predicting the imminent nuclear arming of Iran since 1992 at least, I would suggest that Israeli pronouncements on this issue be taken with a large pinch of salt. Their track record to date reads: 100% wrong.

TB, note that the attacks on the Syrian nuclear plant and the Iraqi Osirak reactors were carried out when Israel was not under clear and immediate threat of attacks. Note also the deployment of the Stuxnet worm against the controllers of the centrifuges used by Iran for uranium enrichment. While I agree with you that all other alternatives should be exhausted first, Israel hasn't, in the past, played by these rules.

Note also that an attack would invite reprisals, probably involving Hamas, which could affect the vote in the General Assembly. I am not saying that an attack WILL occur; in fact, given the possible consequences, I hope it does not. But when someone as far to the right as Dagan suggests that Netanyahu is considering it, I admit to some trepidation.


Yes. Little niceties like international law haven't ever proved a brake on Israeli aggression in the past have they? So I don't think we need worry about whether there will be an actual 'provocation' or not.

Will Netanyahu decide to attack? Past form indicates if Israel perceives a threat it will attack. There's no doubt that plans have been drawn up and there's a suggestion that the Syrian attack was a dry-run for an Iran attack.

Palestinians have learned over the years that Israel is most likely to commit a new atrocity or aggression if there's an election coming up in Israel. So if Netanyahu's coalition gets into domestic political trouble, I will be most anxious. The question Netanyahu will be asking himself is: Can I face the Israeli electorate after allowing an Iranian nuclear program to proceed to fruition without trying to destroy it? Ultimately Israeli domestic political considerations could well over ride all other factors, including US disapproval.



HannahLynHeather -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/2/2011 2:20:58 AM)

israel is going to attack iran? how? what the fuck with?

for fuck's sake this is such a stupid idea. think it through. israel doesn't have the capability to make an effective attack on iran without the cooperation of other countries, countries that fucking hate israel.

christ's blood on toast, some fucking people. [8|]



MrRodgers -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/2/2011 5:19:23 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

Given that the consensus among US Intelligence Agencies (who are preseumably viewing the same intelligence as Mossad and Netanyahu) is that Iran is NOT building a necular weapons program, won't any attack on Iran under the pretext of "preventing/destroying Iranian nuclear capability' be an unprovoked attack?


Interesting, since you are so quick to dismiss those same agencies' intelligence on WMDs in Iraq.

Well, this is quite a bit different. Saddam hadn't even really gotten started with nukes but Iran is well on their way.

I don't claim to be a expert but if I am to believe the press accounts, Iran is enriching uranium to weapons grade capability. Why ? If they are...that is a clear provocation if only because of 40 years of rhetorically 'blowing Israel of the map' in so many words.



MrRodgers -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/2/2011 5:20:35 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: HannahLynHeather

israel is going to attack iran? how? what the fuck with?

for fuck's sake this is such a stupid idea. think it through. israel doesn't have the capability to make an effective attack on iran without the cooperation of other countries, countries that fucking hate israel.

christ's blood on toast, some fucking people. [8|]


To my knowledge, they needed no help taking out Iraq nuke reactor.



Termyn8or -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/2/2011 10:10:01 AM)

"israel is going to attack iran? how? what the fuck with? "

You have got to be kidding me. They have one of the best militaries in the world and plenty of nukes.

T^T



Termyn8or -> RE: Israel to attack Iran this Fall (8/2/2011 10:12:52 AM)

"Iran is enriching uranium to weapons grade capability. Why ?"

Given the events of the last few decades, if I were them the FIRST thing I would do is persue nuclear weapons. After all Israel has them. The thing that should bother you is that Russia is helping Iran.

T^T



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