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A political scandal involving a government MP over payments to prostitutes, which threatens Australia's minority government, deepened on Wednesday when the lawmaker's former union asked police to investigate his union credit card bills. The move by the Health Services Union (HSU) increases the likelihood that police will launch a criminal investigation into the credit card bills of the union's former boss Craig Thomson, now a government MP, including payments to a Sydney brothel. Thomson has denied any wrongdoing. But if police decide he can be charged with a criminal offence of which he is then found guilty, he would be forced to leave parliament, sparking a by-election that could bring down Gillard's government which has a one-seat majority.

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The next election is not due until the second half of 2013, but if Thomson were to be convicted of a crime before then, Labor would likely lose his seat in a by-election, which could force an early election. Were the opposition to win a by-election in Thomson's seat, the government and opposition would control 75 seats each in the 150 seat parliament. But the government must provide parliament's speaker, who does not normally vote on bills. That would in all probability leave neither side of the house able to control a majority, which could force the Governor-General to intervene and call an early election.

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Gillard won national elections a year ago this week with a one-seat majority, thanks to the support of one Green and three independent lawmakers. Polls suggest she would be convincingly thrown from office if an election were held today.