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The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 10:46:30 AM   
tolovetolaugh


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Status: offline 		http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

The Keys are statements that favor the re election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
-----------------------
How many are false to you, and do you see this as a valid system?



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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 11:10:19 AM   
Hillwilliam


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Status: offline 		It looks like the jury is out. A lot will depend on the economy over the next 12 months and who the R side nominates.

Economy improves (Americans have a short memory so whatever happened within the last 3 months matters more) it favors Obama tremendously.

Certain of the extremists get the R nomination. It also looks good for Obama because they're just fucking scarey.


Economy declines and/or one of the more moderate folks like Romney wins the Republican nomination It's touch and go.

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 11:16:07 AM   
willbeurdaddy


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Joined: 4/8/2006
Status: offline 		Its as valid as AGW models. Keep tweaking parameters until it comes up with the answer you want. There are only 2 criteria that are needed. What was GDP growth the 4 quarters prior to the election and what was the unemployment rate a month before the election.

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 11:53:30 AM   
mnottertail


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Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		Almost a Laffer curve there sport. Unfounded asswipe.

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 12:04:39 PM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
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quote:

ORIGINAL: tolovetolaugh

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House

The Keys are statements that favor the re election of the incumbent party. When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party wins. When six or more are false, the challenging party wins.
  1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
  3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
  5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
  8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
  10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
-----------------------
How many are false to you, and do you see this as a valid system?




Wow, Oblunder is screwed! But we all knew that didn't we.

P.S. there may be another key.

"Can't have an uncle "Omar" who's been in the country illegally for many years , has already been ordered deported and gets arrested by Framingham, Mass police last week for DWI."
It has to make you wonder just how many other "relatives" from Kenya are in the U.S. illegally and stealing benefits from us Taxpayers.

< Message edited by popeye1250 -- 8/31/2011 12:37:49 PM >

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 12:44:45 PM   
popeye1250


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Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Almost a Laffer curve there sport. Unfounded asswipe.


Oblunder should have a family reunion and invite ICE.


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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 12:49:13 PM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		keep wishin pops
Id rather see you get more edumackated but thats not liable to happen is it

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 1:19:29 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

keep wishin pops
Id rather see you get more edumackated but thats not liable to happen is it


quote:

ORIGINAL: popeye1250

Oblunder should have a family reunion and invite ICE.

You have to admit, Lucy, if you have a sense of humor, that this was pretty frigging funny. 

Firm


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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 1:21:41 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		Who or what is ICE? Just like you had to tell me what AGW is (or was it Rich?) I ain't joking, and Moonhead had to tell me what pwned means; no fuckin idea what it is.....

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 1:23:41 PM   
FirmhandKY


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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

Who or what is ICE? Just like you had to tell me what AGW is (or was it Rich?) I ain't joking, and Moonhead had to tell me what pwned means; no fuckin idea what it is.....


Immigration and Customs Enforcement

The replacement for INS.

Firm


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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 1:25:12 PM   
mnottertail


Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004
Status: offline 		LOL. do they do anything less or more or different than INS did? Cuz, I am K (MIB) all the way in that little vignette.

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 1:37:40 PM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
Joined: 8/27/2008
Status: offline 		TY Firm. I was getting ready to ask the same thing.

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Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 1:59:25 PM   
FirmhandKY


Posts: 8948
Joined: 9/21/2004
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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

LOL. do they do anything less or more or different than INS did? Cuz, I am K (MIB) all the way in that little vignette.

ICE has become a real player:

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement was formed pursuant to the Homeland Security Act of 2002 following the events of September 11, 2001. With the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security the functions and jurisdictions of several border and revenue enforcement agencies were combined and consolidated into U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Consequently, ICE is the largest investigative arm of the Department of Homeland Security, and the second largest contributor to the nation's Joint Terrorism Task Force (after the Federal Bureau of Investigation).

The agencies that were either moved entirely or merged in part into ICE included the investigative and intelligence resources of the United States Customs Service, the criminal investigation resources of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, and the Federal Protective Service. The Federal Protective Service was transferred from ICE to the National Protection and Programs Directorate effective October 28, 2009. At one point, the Federal Air Marshals Service was moved from the Transportation Security Administration to ICE, but they were eventually moved back to the TSA.

Their reach and jurisdiction is pretty broad, but has been back and forth a bit.  Don't be surprised to see them become more visible and more involved than the FBI and the ATF.

Firm


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RE: The 13 keys to the white house - 8/31/2011 2:05:09 PM   
Lucylastic


Posts: 40310
Status: offline 		well seeing as theyve deported more illegal criminals since Obama has taken over, I dont see why a party at his house would make any difference, why not just go to the people involved> unless its to sign waivers and mass naturalise them.



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