Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy

Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (Full Version)

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DarkSteven -> Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 7:27:45 AM)
http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/04/zakaria-in-defense-of-german-sluggishness/?hpt=hp_t2 Note that he says that Greece CANNOT be rescued. Banks gotta quit loaning to it.

FirstQuaker -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 10:02:23 AM)
Been watching the Greek grenade going off all week. The Chinese and the Japanese took a nice haircut on the place The next one to fall will likely be Italy. I don't know it Italy is too big to fail, but it is unquestioned that it is too big to bail, and with the interest on their bonds working its way up towards that magic 7 percent number . . .

Termyn8or -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 10:50:13 AM)
Read most of it, I get the idea. Germany is not dumb, as a matter of fact I remember some years ago they exercised an option on their own bonds that pissed a few people off. They were acting in their own best national interest. Many countries do, it's just difficult for US citizens to fathom the idea. Usury is not inherently bad. They now define usury as excessive interest but look to an older definition. Bible or not, there have been admonishments thoughout history. Reasonable people however, would not go so far as to say there should be no interest, however I think it's going to become clear soon that this should not be the primary method of making money. What portion of this nation's GNP or GDP is basically derived from interest or capital gains ? This is moneychanging. They outlaw poker games but let this go on. What a bunch of idiots, nay, I dare say not idiots because sometimes that which is attributed to malice or greed, is attributed rightly. I wouldn't call it quite a tragedy though. It's more of a learning process. Lending causes problems, we've seen that with our own eyes. However some lending is necessary or commerce would simply stop. So what is going to have to happen is that there will have to be a limit on the amount of money lent. That was the job of the fed here and obviously similar institutions in most countries. They failed. The reason that credit should be so hard to get, on a national as well as personal level, is that even if it is not abused it will cause devaluation of the currency. You call it inflation. I do not. I call it what it is. If people had to pay cash for a new car what do you suppose they would cost ? If people had to pay cash for heart operations what do you think they would cost ? Credit is like insurance in a way, it ENABLES. It distorts the supply/demand dynamic. That made it a seller's market and now we have the results, bubbles in damnear everything. The one that burst was the housing bubble, but it's not the only one. Anything people finance is in a bubble. Anything paid mainly by insurance or tax revenues is in a bubble. This includes quite a bit of actual work going on. This has supported bloated paychecks for certain workers as well, which supports the bubble. Housing got out of hand, and even it's not over by a longshot. FQ kinda hit it square on with "too big to bail". I think we better think on that a bit because let's put it this way - when the US economy really tanks, it's going to be damn hard to find anyone big enough to help our ass out of the hole. China is already in hip deep, Russia will say "Fuck you", Israel ? We send them fucking checks. Poland ? Yeah right, if they had the money and sent it to us the people would overthrow the government. Who else ? The EU is going down the tubes so they're not a likely saviour. Who is left ? The Arabs ? If ALL the Arab nations got together they could probably help, but really I think they would say "Are you fucking kidding me after the shit you been doing for the last fifty years" ! We are in for a hell of a ride. T^T

FirstQuaker -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 11:05:52 AM)
That is about the core of it, the Germans are not a stupid people, and they certainly have a banking system that knows what it is trying to do. I think the Germans are getting tired of the circus, and are looking further down the road then anyone else. If the EUro collapses, they can go back to marks for money and be sitting relatively pretty. The invoked devastaion in the rest of EUrope is another story, the new franc, drachma or lira will about worthless. And there will likely be the mother of all runs on banks if any country leaves the EUrozone, for eample Greece, if such a thing occurs, will have everyone trying to get their money before it "converts" from the Euro to whatever fiat currency the Greek government decides to use. Pensions, savings, etc. will be wiped out.

DarkSteven -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 11:13:44 AM)
To be honest, I never understood why the Eurozone was a good idea in the first place. I still don't.

FirstQuaker -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 11:21:27 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven To be honest, I never understood why the Eurozone was a good idea in the first place. I still don't. I think they looked at the United States and thought they could do a similar thing, with some nanny state "improvements."

Anaxagoras -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 1:06:06 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven To be honest, I never understood why the Eurozone was a good idea in the first place. I still don't. The EU pretty much started out as some coal and steel treaties to increase economic co-operation between France and Germany after a series of disastrous episodes going back to the Franco-Prussian war. Some level of co-operation without sacrificing sovereignty was a good idea IMO. It did bring benefits for a while along with a comical level of bureaucracy which was the ugly gravy train side of Europe that the Brits were right to be sceptical about. The EU became too powerful in its own right, and ntegration started going too far in the 1990's leading to the Euro which wasn't robust enough to weather storms like this without further integration that would seriously sacrifice the economic freedom of each nation.

Ninebelowzero -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 1:10:33 PM)
You are missing the elephant in the room folks. The banks with most to loose are mostly French. with about 60-70% of the total greek debt. The EU isn't bailing out Greece per se rather they are shoring up the French banks.

FirstQuaker -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 1:38:51 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero You are missing the elephant in the room folks. The banks with most to loose are mostly French. with about 60-70% of the total greek debt. The EU isn't bailing out Greece per se rather they are shoring up the French banks. No doubt. Sarkozy thought Libya would bail him out, too. The Frogs are actually walking on the edge right now, and have been sending various worthies off to beg money from Peking. But the Hungarian Carpetbagger will likely keep the place together until the elections next spring.

Ninebelowzero -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 1:58:43 PM)
I'm not sure the dynamics of this is fully understood. I suspect this could be a financial Chernobyl. The French government practically own most of the big French banks & industrial complex's & if the banks go south then the government will have to slash & burn expenditure & that implodes French industry. quote: ORIGINAL: FirstQuaker quote: ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero You are missing the elephant in the room folks. The banks with most to loose are mostly French. with about 60-70% of the total greek debt. The EU isn't bailing out Greece per se rather they are shoring up the French banks. No doubt. Sarkozy thought Libya would bail him out, too. The Frogs are actually walking on the edge right now, and have been sending various worthies off to beg money from Peking. But the Hungarian Carpetbagger will likely keep the place together until the elections next spring.

FirstQuaker -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 2:14:16 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero I'm not sure the dynamics of this is fully understood. I suspect this could be a financial Chernobyl. The French government practically own most of the big French banks & industrial complex's & if the banks go south then the government will have to slash & burn expenditure & that implodes French industry. quote: ORIGINAL: FirstQuaker quote: ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero You are missing the elephant in the room folks. The banks with most to loose are mostly French. with about 60-70% of the total greek debt. The EU isn't bailing out Greece per se rather they are shoring up the French banks. No doubt. Sarkozy thought Libya would bail him out, too. The Frogs are actually walking on the edge right now, and have been sending various worthies off to beg money from Peking. But the Hungarian Carpetbagger will likely keep the place together until the elections next spring. Here is the Big Frog's discussion of his situation as it stands right now - Sarkozy cuts France's 2012 economic growth forecast to 1%; France last had a budget surplus in 1974 quote: With just six months to go to a presidential election, the president announced that in light of the poorer economic outlook, new austerity measures will be necessary if France is to meet deficit targets and hold on to its treasured triple-A credit rating. And his whistling in the dark - quote: "If the Chinese, who control 60% of the world's currency reserves, decide to buy the euro instead of into the dollar, why should we refuse," Sarkozy said. "Our own independence will not be put at risk." Sarkozy said it was "essential" that the yuan joined the global foreign exchange syste If he admits to such a grim picture, you can imagine what the reality is. Wait until the necessary French austerity cuts kick in. But France is definitely way to big to bail out. And the Chinese have already said they are not gonna be EUropes savior.

Ninebelowzero -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 2:28:20 PM)
It stands to reason that the Chinesae won't because if they do then they can't shore up the $ & then the US goes into meltdown. So choices choices folks. Who do the Chinese sell more stuff too? Answers on an American postcard please.

FirstQuaker -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:03:02 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero It stands to reason that the Chinesae won't because if they do then they can't shore up the $ & then the US goes into meltdown. So choices choices folks. Who do the Chinese sell more stuff too? Answers on an American postcard please. The Chinese public is pretty well burnt that the money is being spent/lost abroad, especially when some of the local scandals involve sucessful Chinese businesses having to go to loan sharks because there isn't money available in China. Never mind the losses they took from buying Greek Bonds. Even the CCP has to pay attention when 400-500 million Chinese complain. - China's people have a clear message for their government -- don't even think of saving Europe. quote: "Better to save Wenzhou than Ouzhou (Europe)" the source said, referring to one of China's wealthiest cities which has been hit by a credit crunch. Dozens of bosses of small and medium enterprises in Wenzhou have gone into hiding this year after borrowing heavily from loan sharks after the government tightened bank credit to fight inflation. But it looks like the Greek and Italian dominoes will fall before the one with a Frog on it does. Spain and Portugal are begging their former colonies for money Even the new G20 management is looking past the Eurozone. As for France, the bomb is apt to go off there after the election, regardless of who "wins." Sarkozy isn't going to install austerity measures like chopping health care, pensions etc. and start wacking the public sector down with a election vote coming up if he planes on winning, so if you see those things happening, then you know he plans to dump the mess on his opposition.

Ninebelowzero -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:15:07 PM)
I get your point, I think you are pretty much on the mark. The problem with the EU is that it is a political construct that will not accept reality whatsoever. They are of the opinion that the workforce of Europe will tolerate more & more lending to dead stick economies purely to maintain a body politic. At some point the likes of Germany will have it's own version of UKIP. & then the game really is up. So do they sack the PIGS & protect the heart of the EU or all go down together? If it's the latter then we are all well & truly fucked.

FirstQuaker -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:19:59 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero I get your point, I think you are pretty much on the mark. The problem with the EU is that it is a political construct that will not accept reality whatsoever. They are of the opinion that the workforce of Europe will tolerate more & more lending to dead stick economies purely to maintain a body politic. At some point the likes of Germany will have it's own version of UKIP. & then the game really is up. So do they sack the PIGS & protect the heart of the EU or all go down together? If it's the latter then we are all well & truly fucked. If you lived in Germany and were watching this circus, just what would you think? Rhetorical question. Germany is basically the only major EUro player that actually carries its own weight.

Ninebelowzero -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:27:02 PM)
It isn't as rhetorical as you think. A German worker pulls overtime & works till 65, to pay taxes which are lent to Greece where they only work till 60. It doesn't need much thinking about. quote: ORIGINAL: FirstQuaker quote: ORIGINAL: Ninebelowzero I get your point, I think you are pretty much on the mark. The problem with the EU is that it is a political construct that will not accept reality whatsoever. They are of the opinion that the workforce of Europe will tolerate more & more lending to dead stick economies purely to maintain a body politic. At some point the likes of Germany will have it's own version of UKIP. & then the game really is up. So do they sack the PIGS & protect the heart of the EU or all go down together? If it's the latter then we are all well & truly fucked. If you lived in Germany and were watching this circus, just what would you think? Rhetorical question. Germany is basically the only major EUro player that actually carries its own weight.

calamitysandra -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:29:37 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven To be honest, I never understood why the Eurozone was a good idea in the first place. I still don't. Because Kohl and Mitterrand wanted to leave some tangible, world changing legacy.

Ninebelowzero -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:31:38 PM)
When politicians want to leave a legacy it's time to put the snipers on the grassy gnoll. Every time it turns to shit. quote: ORIGINAL: calamitysandra quote: ORIGINAL: DarkSteven To be honest, I never understood why the Eurozone was a good idea in the first place. I still don't. Because Kohl and Mitterrand wanted to leave some tangible, world changing legacy.

calamitysandra -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:34:27 PM)
Kohl should have been contend with the German Unification as the political accomplishment to remember him by.

Ninebelowzero -> RE: Fareed Zakaria on the Germans' role in the Greek tragedy (11/5/2011 3:37:18 PM)
100% agree, also factor in that the costs of reunification was going to hurt Germany for some time should of deterred him also.

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