|
SpanishMatMaster -> RE: 7,000,000,000+ humans on the planet ....... (11/26/2011 2:37:17 AM)
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
A week or two ago, the UN declared the the 7 billionth human had arrived on the planet. That's 7,000,000,000+ of us humans on the globe. It is predicted that this figure will rise another billion (to 8 billion) in c12 years, and keep rising. A century or so ago there was little more than a billion of us.
How will this explosion of numbers affect the way we live? Will there be enough resources to feed, house educate employ and keep healthy 7 or 8 billion (or even more) of us? Will food security become a major issue? Or even a cause for war? How will we handle declining levels of energy, raw materials and other resources? Will we be forced to impose limits on individual reproductive rights? How will this affect the natural world? Or the quality of life we currently enjoy? These are just a few of the concerns raised .. there are many many more questions ... most without any clear answers at this point in time.
I'm interested in hearing how posters regard the issues thrown up by this unprecedented situation. What effects will this exponential growth have? How will humans handle it? How will it affect our individual lives and lifestyles? Please peek into your crystal balls and share your thoughts, concerns and views on this issue.
Please see this http://seniorjournal.com/images/Symbols/Senior%20Stats/World_Population_Growth_Rates.png (if you can tell me how to show an image directly, thanks!)
Ok. Some considerations: - Population growth has been exponential. Correct. So has been technology and industrial advance. With the production capacity of 1900, we would be all dead. The run of population vs. resources is not a run of an exponential against a constant - it is the run between an exponential and another.
- Population growth is decelerating. The pass between 5 and 6 billion needed 12 years - if you put it in a linear way (which is wrong, but go with me on that) we have 6 / 5 = 20% increase in 12 years, a 1.67% per year. The pass between 6 and 7 billion needed also 12 years, but that means 7 / 6 = 17%, a 1.42% per year (making the same mistake, to compensate both). So - the percent of population increase, is decreasing. The population growth exists, but it is stopping.
This matches the UN estimations, even the more pessimistic: while the education increases, the family planning grows, the women get more rights on their lives... the population growth decreases more and more, even to the point where some countries are actually loosing population (high culture + pessimistic perception of the own economical situation ==> less children).
At the same time, the technology advance does not depend on the starving or the miserable. It depends on the amount of cultivated and rich. That is: the exponential growth of technology will continue long after the population has stopped growing exponentially, because the amount of rich and cultivated will still increase for a while.
That means, that we are confronting a crisis, but the crisis will be over, and after it, what we will have is: - Constant population (more or less).
- Exponential technology growth, including resources, until all the mental capacity of the population is being used in the same level or more as in the current "developed countries".
And this is fantastic, a brilliant future... if we ever reach it. To reach it, we have to survive the population shock and the current dangerous situation in many aspects. For example, we are in a dangerous "window" o weapon production - only in the last 50 years, mankind has had the technological means to completely destroy itself on this planet. In some decades or centuries, mankind will expand to other planets and stars, making any attempt to "kill 'em all" impossible. Until then, we have the means to destroy it all. Our duty is to prevent it, while we accelerate the moment when this window closes for good.
There are other dangers, as the total climate catastrophe. We have to deal with these problems and resolve them, with good politics, citizen behaviour and technology.
Now to your questions. - Food security during the crisis: Even if technology will continue helping us to cover more and more calories production with less and less resources, it may be necessary for some time to take other measures. A high tax on flesh, for example, can make wonders (flesh is very inefficient, to produce a calorie of flesh you waste 8+ calories of cereals, in the case of cows at least 30). The financial speculation on food futures could be forbidden or regulated better. The political situation in Africa must continue its improvement, as any important war will immediately produce famine there. China and other rising countries could be forced to reeducate their population regarding food consume (instead of letting them imitate unhealthy models from the West).
- There will be no declining levels of energy. In the contrary, the technology is increasing the production of energy at a very high ratio. Our problem is that a part of this energy is one we do not want to use, for ecological reasons. This is a challenge, but we are doing a good job there, both the states and the private economy.
- There will be no predictable problems on raw materials. The resources of the Earth are still there, and many new resources can be still exploited. Substitutes can be found for scarce materials, as it has been done many times before. This is an old story. In the XIX century we depended on horses and whale oil. Horses were impossible for big cities and whales were almost extinguished - we survived. The private market, capitalism, invention, are wonderful weapons against any resource problem. Of course in many aspects the best idea will be to recycle, but we are learning this as well.
- The natural world will be heavily affected by the overpopulation. Here I cannot be optimistic, we will still extinguish many thousands species more, including many ones with valuable resources which will never be discovered at all. We will loose many chances, and the situation will be quite worse before it starts to improve. Mankind is already one of the biggest ecologic catastrophes of this planet, and it will be the biggest. I can only hope that at the end, it will be for good, as without mankind (or other intelligent species) the whole planet with all its ecology is doomed.
- No, no reproduction rights limits are necessary, actually China is starting to withdraw his because it is growing too slowly for their economy. Culture and richness will be much for effective as any possible limitation, and they may be TOO effective, so that we end up supporting the birth of children all over the world, as many developed countries already do.
- The current level of life won't decrease during this crisis, but it will change. We will have to get used to live with less energy consumption, less flesh consumption, less water consumption. But technology will helps us to do it in an enjoyable way, and bring us soon more advantages as disadvantages. Remember: the population exponential curve is already gone, population is growing linear now, and soon it will start to grow even slower. While technology advances exponentially for a while. So that will be ok.
So, here it is. Best regards.
|
|
|
|
