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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/11/2011 3:21:48 PM

tweakabelle

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Today's media here are full of accounts of splits within the ruling Tory-Lib Dem coalition in the UK on this issue. We're being told that Clegg (UK Dep PM) is 'infuriated' by his boss's refusal to compromise on this issue.

Is there a serious possibility of the UK ruling coalition collapsing? At this distance, it appears that an alternative Labour-Lib Dem would have the numbers in the House of Commons. Do UK posters feel this has any real chance of eventuating?

On a more general note, I wonder if the current financial mess in the Eurozone is blinding people to the singular achievement of the EU - an unparalleled half century of peace, freedom and prosperity in Western Europe. What has this been worth? Surely, the institutions that have delivered this peace bounty are worth keeping!

Without understating the gravity of the current crisis, I do hope that people don't rush to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 12/11/2011 3:24:06 PM >

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/11/2011 4:04:05 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
On a more general note, I wonder if the current financial mess in the Eurozone is blinding people to the singular achievement of the EU - an unparalleled half century of peace, freedom and prosperity in Western Europe. What has this been worth? Surely, the institutions that have delivered this peace bounty are worth keeping!

we havent seen the end result yet.. that has yet to come. Considering that some of these countries have been having riots and such,.. and in some countries there is animosity towards immigrants.. who knows what will happen, it depends on what the EU bureacrats demand of countries that need bailing out and how populations of the better off countries feel about having to come up with the money to do the bailing.. and its not a bottomless pot of money either.. who will come to drain the pot next?.. not to mention that now they have to change the rules, which undoubtedly will not sit well for many..

Personally, i would like to see the Euro survive and a union survive in some form, it could be thru a well constructed trade agreement tho (imo).. although getting to that point will likely be messier than anyone wants.. i guess its like getting married,.. much easier to get in than to get out..

as an Aussie tho,.. would you want your country to be dictated to by well fed bureacrats half a world away, with little concept of what your countrymen face, especially in bad economic times? I somehow dont think you would (I know i would not).. which is why i understand how some people are ticked with being in the EU and having in essence lost their sovereignty... its a mess.. who knows how it will end..

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/11/2011 4:52:18 PM

Politesub53

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Tweaks, the EU isnt the same as the Eurozone, although many could see it that way. World peace isnt due to just the EU alone though, the cold war ( and Americas input) had much to do with that. As did the fact Russia France and the UK all have nuclear weapons.

The problem we have now is that the whole thing seems to be run by France and Germany, as it has since its inception. The new agreement is just a rehash of the Maastricht agreement, signed by all 27 nations. All that has happened is another sticking plaster was stuck on the patient, without the cause (debt) being addressed.

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/11/2011 8:36:39 PM

tweakabelle

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Thx for your responses tj444 and Politesub.

I feel somewhat re-assured now.

It's a big mess isn't it? So complicated too - with 27 diverging national interests, sovereignties and peoples involved. The decision making process isn't as streamlined as it might be ideally either. A bureaucrat's heaven I should imagine!

Those needs have to be balanced against the democratic expression of the various peoples involved. Here we've got just a few - 7 States and 2 Territories - and getting everyone to agree on any one thing can be tortuous!

From this distance I sometimes used to think that the inevitable result was going to be United States of Europe. This is looking more and more like a pipe dream as Europe struggles to confront the issues facing it. I hope it all works out for you guys somehow.

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/12/2011 3:02:56 AM

Politesub53

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Your welcome Tweaks.

The one good thing is most people here dont want the EU to split apart. The need for close co-operation is understood by all. The idea of a superstate doesnt appeal to everyone, but the idea of a giant trade block does.

The memory of two world wars should be enough to stop us going down that route again, if it isnt, then we deserve what we get.

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/12/2011 10:34:22 AM

popeye1250

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

Bit like America really with your debt, we are all living on borrowed time and borrowed money.

Anything to keep the markets happy it seems.

Meanwhile we are storing up shite for our children to deal with, how selfish we have become.

No, it's to keep wealthy people wealthy.
If we did the right thing we'd declare bankruptcy and get everything sorted out.
Of course the wealthy don't want to see the U.S. or Britain declare bankruptcy do they? Well, not unless *they've* had a hand in engineering that bankruptcy first and then surprising everyone else with it.

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Post #: 46

RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/12/2011 4:09:56 PM

Politesub53

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I am simply amazed that so many people cant see how everyone would suffer by letting nations, especially major ones, go bankrupt. I didnt know so much stupidity existed.

Pops, if America went bankrupt and overseas investors looked to the emerging Asian markets. How what would your suggestion to restart the economy be, given the US would have precious little to invest ?

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/12/2011 11:08:04 PM

Aneirin

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The only way countries could ''start again'' I believe is by going back to square one, which basically transpires as primativity, in the US this would be the wild west again, a time without the dependence on oil and all it's derivatives. But such a time as has past cannot be revisited again,because populations are larger and resources far fewer, so the reality is we can't go back we must continue to go forward and find a solution to the mess we believe we are in.

Perhaps the vastly increased world population is the problem, but that is something we can do something about, as the Chinese did in the past, but one thing that does come out of a desire to go backwards, is the fact that people start thinking for themselves and stop relying on others to provide, this can only have positivity for us finding an another energy source and there in time hopefully rid us of the dependence on oil.

But as a Briton, a European, how do the rest of the world perceive Europe, the EEC, Common Market, Euro zone, a good thing or bad, would you as foreigners looking in rather have it or not, does it benefit your country and there your own lives, come on tell us, for it would be good to have another perspective other than the ones we usually get from within the region, where everyone has a different idea.

To me, if what we are in benefits the rest of the world and their people, then to me what we are teetering on the edge of being out is worth fighting to keep no matter how different we may be to the mainland Europe, as world peace, prosperity and stability is my ultimate interest.

typos

< Message edited by Aneirin -- 12/12/2011 11:11:40 PM >

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/12/2011 11:17:16 PM

Aneirin

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

I am simply amazed that so many people cant see how everyone would suffer by letting nations, especially major ones, go bankrupt. I didnt know so much stupidity existed.

Pops, if America went bankrupt and overseas investors looked to the emerging Asian markets. How what would your suggestion to restart the economy be, given the US would have precious little to invest ?

All it would have is manpower and a lot of land, but isolated and bankrupt makes a country a prime target for invasion, because of our dependence on oil without which the military machine grinds to a halt and although America was won by civilian militia, I hardly think that would work again against a foe powered by oil.

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Post #: 49

RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/12/2011 11:23:29 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin
But as a Briton, a European, how do the rest of the world perceive Europe, the EEC, Common Market, Euro zone, a good thing or bad, would you as foreigners looking in rather have it or not, does it benefit your country and there your own lives, come on tell us, for it would be good to have another perspective other than the ones we usually get from within the region, where everyone has a different idea.

My mother was originally from Germany and she left cuz she felt that Europe was, as she put it, a "powder keg". She seemed to feel there could be another war, I guess.. I dont know myself tho.

Me personally, i have already expressed my opinion. I feel that the US will become weaker and China/asia will be come stronger, I want to see a balancing force in the world and i see the EU as filling that spot.. And I also want the Euro to counterbalance the US dollar... jmo

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/13/2011 12:30:32 AM

Aneirin

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Oh yes, I seek balance in all things and economy wise perhaps Europe even geographically situated between the far east and the west if one uses the standard world gazetteer could be that force for balance and balance in the world economy, that is if we can put aside this international rivalry thing that historically has so divided us. In that I believe there should be no dominant currency that favours one part of the world at the expense of the rest, perhaps the Euro is needed to balance the rising power of the Yen against the struggling dollar until we can make this currency idea a thing of the past.

But I fear what will undo the best of intentions, is oft misplaced national pride and the belief that one bunch of inhabitants are better than a bunch on another land mass, nationalistic conservative tendencies that inhibit so much we could have.

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Post #: 51

RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/13/2011 3:22:16 AM

Politesub53

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444

My mother was originally from Germany and she left cuz she felt that Europe was, as she put it, a "powder keg". She seemed to feel there could be another war, I guess.. I dont know myself tho.

This is an interesting point which I will get back to TJ. How long ago did your mother leave ? I would think the majority had that worry before the break up of the USSR and fall of the Berlin Wall.

My grandfathers generation had the horrors of WW1 to contend with, followed by seing their sons generation buthcered in WW2. So in that respect it is hard to knock the older generations for wanting peace at almost any cost. In the US, you have more States than Europe has nations but first and formost most of you, as I understand it, see yourself as American. You also share a common language. In the EU everyone sees themselves as French, Italian or whatever first and Europeans second, making it harder for a centralised government to work. We also have to contend with different language and different histories and culture.

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Post #: 52

RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/13/2011 3:25:18 AM

Politesub53

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

Pops, if America went bankrupt and overseas investors looked to the emerging Asian markets. How what would your suggestion to restart the economy be, given the US would have precious little to invest ?

This is what gets me with isolationists, not a single credible alternative to offer, just more inward thinking.

Either we get platitudes like the banks will sort themselves out (no mention of how), or silence, which may seem golden but isnt gold.

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/13/2011 3:51:39 AM

tweakabelle

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53

Pops, if America went bankrupt and overseas investors looked to the emerging Asian markets. How what would your suggestion to restart the economy be, given the US would have precious little to invest ?

This is what gets me with isolationists, not a single credible alternative to offer, just more inward thinking.

Either we get platitudes like the banks will sort themselves out (no mention of how), or silence, which may seem golden but isnt gold.

...not to mention the trifling c$3 trillion debt held by China in T-Bonds.
....all of which would have to be paid off sooner or later
The Amish might survive but who else in the US would have their survival guaranteed?

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/13/2011 6:58:57 AM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Politesub53
This is an interesting point which I will get back to TJ. How long ago did your mother leave ? I would think the majority had that worry before the break up of the USSR and fall of the Berlin Wall.

My grandfathers generation had the horrors of WW1 to contend with, followed by seing their sons generation buthcered in WW2. So in that respect it is hard to knock the older generations for wanting peace at almost any cost. In the US, you have more States than Europe has nations but first and formost most of you, as I understand it, see yourself as American. You also share a common language. In the EU everyone sees themselves as French, Italian or whatever first and Europeans second, making it harder for a centralised government to work. We also have to contend with different language and different histories and culture.

My mother left when she was fairly young, about 20yo i think, which was before the USSR break up and fall of the wall.

I dunno.. I think a narrower focus of a strong trade bloc agreement would have worked much better than trying to create a whole central govt..I think they tried to bite off more than they could chew.. Yes, different languages, different cultures, ideals, economic status, all that makes a central govt hard to work.

Sure the states in the US have it easier but imo the US is a country divided, you are either a R or a D... and i have not seen the govt been able to do much other than keep printing money.. and with OWS and tea parties and protests, i dont know where the US will end up. I sometimes feel watching US politics is like watching a very weird sureal movie or soap opera written by someone on drugs..

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RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/13/2011 10:11:23 PM

InvisibleBlack

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
On a more general note, I wonder if the current financial mess in the Eurozone is blinding people to the singular achievement of the EU - an unparalleled half century of peace, freedom and prosperity in Western Europe. What has this been worth? Surely, the institutions that have delivered this peace bounty are worth keeping!

Without understating the gravity of the current crisis, I do hope that people don't rush to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

In my view, I think you have this backwards. It's not that the EU created the desire for peace - it's that after two brutal bloody pointless wars that devasted the entire continet, Europe's overall outlook changed from expansionist and aggressive to peace-seeking. The original ECSC and the EEC that grew out of it were expressions of the desire to avoid another bloodbath. Also, bear in mind that the "century of peace, freedom and prosperity in Western Europe" was bought at the price of leaving Eastern Europe in the oppressive grasp of Soviet domination for decades.

All of this being said, the people who survived the World Wars are mostly gone and even their children are aging. The spirit which motivated that early EEC is not that one that moves the EU currently. I think the Maastricht Treaty was a mistake and I think the Treaty of Lisbon was a worse one. This latest Treaty is just more of the same and I expect we'll see another series of fiscal crises and meltdowns over the next year as well. They seem to be desperately rushing to create a supranational absolute government entity and giving the peoples under them no time to adjust. The entire strategy for addressing this crisis seems to be attempting to discover new ways to manufacture more debt to loan to nations which will never be able to repay the debts they have let alone even greater amounts of newer debts - all so the banks of northern Europe don't have to write off loans that they should never have made in the first place. This isn't a workable system.

I expect that in the end, this will find the classic solution of history, it will wrap itself up in a war. When I asked "What do you do when a foreign nation takes control of your currency, beggars your government, drives your people into poverty, takes away your ability to have any influence on your leadership, and begins to extract the wealth of your people?" one of the guys at work replied "Assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand!"

Actually, didn't someone just mail a bomb to the CEO of one of the German banks? I'd forgotten about that.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
I dunno.. I think a narrower focus of a strong trade bloc agreement would have worked much better than trying to create a whole central govt..I think they tried to bite off more than they could chew.. Yes, different languages, different cultures, ideals, economic status, all that makes a central govt hard to work.

I think an open economic community would have been a wonderful idea. If you allow the free flow of capital and labor across borders, eventually a balanced system will result. The single currency was not a good idea and it jammed several of mechanisms economic forces typically use to adjust markets. Bringing member nations in against the wishes of the populace (or not even allowing the populace a say) wasn't a good idea either. I do not see how that can possibly fail to foster resentment, especially when things go wrong.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
Sure the states in the US have it easier but imo the US is a country divided, you are either a R or a D... and i have not seen the govt been able to do much other than keep printing money.. and with OWS and tea parties and protests, i dont know where the US will end up. I sometimes feel watching US politics is like watching a very weird sureal movie or soap opera written by someone on drugs..

I've been thinking about this and I think the bitter divisions are an inescapable result of the centralization of power. In a weak central government design, you can have your community and I can have my community and while we may disagree and/or even dislike each others lifestyles/ideas - we're not immediately threatened by them. You create a powerful central government that creates "one size fits all" laws and then your side has to win, otherwise the other guy is forcing his ideas onto you. The idea that one entity can craft a single set of all-encompassing regulations and laws that will seamlessly fit 300 million people is nonsensical. The big trick is to find the proper balance between small rogue states and a weak central power, and so much central power that the center becomes the sole focus.

While everyone praises "diversity", the sad fact is that around here they're only comfortable if people are diverse in acceptable (and non-threatening) ways. The creation of greater and greater centralized control and more and more powerful governments is, in my opinion, only going to lead to greater conflict and more resentment and grief - whether in Europe or in the United States.

To quote Princess Leia "The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers."

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Post #: 56

RE: Britain and the Euro area - 12/13/2011 11:46:50 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: InvisibleBlack

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
I dunno.. I think a narrower focus of a strong trade bloc agreement would have worked much better than trying to create a whole central govt..I think they tried to bite off more than they could chew.. Yes, different languages, different cultures, ideals, economic status, all that makes a central govt hard to work.

I think an open economic community would have been a wonderful idea. If you allow the free flow of capital and labor across borders, eventually a balanced system will result. The single currency was not a good idea and it jammed several of mechanisms economic forces typically use to adjust markets. Bringing member nations in against the wishes of the populace (or not even allowing the populace a say) wasn't a good idea either. I do not see how that can possibly fail to foster resentment, especially when things go wrong.

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
Sure the states in the US have it easier but imo the US is a country divided, you are either a R or a D... and i have not seen the govt been able to do much other than keep printing money.. and with OWS and tea parties and protests, i dont know where the US will end up. I sometimes feel watching US politics is like watching a very weird sureal movie or soap opera written by someone on drugs..

I've been thinking about this and I think the bitter divisions are an inescapable result of the centralization of power. In a weak central government design, you can have your community and I can have my community and while we may disagree and/or even dislike each others lifestyles/ideas - we're not immediately threatened by them. You create a powerful central government that creates "one size fits all" laws and then your side has to win, otherwise the other guy is forcing his ideas onto you. The idea that one entity can craft a single set of all-encompassing regulations and laws that will seamlessly fit 300 million people is nonsensical. The big trick is to find the proper balance between small rogue states and a weak central power, and so much central power that the center becomes the sole focus.

While everyone praises "diversity", the sad fact is that around here they're only comfortable if people are diverse in acceptable (and non-threatening) ways. The creation of greater and greater centralized control and more and more powerful governments is, in my opinion, only going to lead to greater conflict and more resentment and grief - whether in Europe or in the United States.

To quote Princess Leia "The more you tighten your grip, Tarkin, the more star systems will slip through your fingers."

I like the concept of the Euro as a way to counteract and lessen the power of the monopoly the US dollar has on the world.. I also think that other countries use of the US dollar and as a reserve currency, as a way of measuring the worth of commodities (like oil), has kept it artificially high (especially considering that the US printing press is going 24/7).. jmo

No govt or politican can be all things to all people.. people have to decide who they support based on what the govt/politician do that benefits them and/or their country.. i definately dont like the politicians buying voters with taxpayer dollars tho.. that has gotten countries into a debt mess far greater than needed..

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Post #: 57

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