RE: A 25-year recession...? (Full Version)

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thishereboi -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/15/2011 5:40:06 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: seekerofslut

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

I DO understand what is happening, only tooo damn well, dont start making ignorant assumptions
and what" was politically asked for over the past 30 years" and why do you see no reason for anyone to be unhappy about it???



Oh, my assumptions would only be ignorant if I were incorrect. I'm not.

You should know what was asked for over the last 30 years, being the good liberal you are. Why should anyone be unhappy when one gets the consequence of what one asked for?






Well I am not a good liberal, so why don't you explain to me what the fuck you are talking about.




seekerofslut -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/15/2011 6:17:05 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

yawns, if you cant answer honestly and with straightforward information instead of the arrogant ignorance, , then thanks for the insight and I shan't respond to you again.
Its not worth the contempt you are inspiring again


This is part of what you do not understand - following is an excerpt.

Medicare and Medicaid as it exists today cannot survive.  There is no policy fix for it that is possible in the current medical paradigm.  This is not a matter of politics or "will", it is mathematics.Medical costs have risen at an average of about 9.5% a year for the last 20 years.  I use 10% in discussion because it's easier to understand but the difference between 9% (which understates it a bit) and 10% (which overstates it a bit) is not that material.  Both lead to ridiculous projections that can't happen and thus won't.In FY 2012 the Federal Budget for "Health Care" (Medicare + Medicaid, mostly) is $866 billion.  At a 9% escalation per year (which is about what it has been since 1980 when this spending was somewhat over $50 billion!) this leads to some interesting results.If you are 50 today and expect to qualify for Medicare at 65 by the time you reach 65 Federal Medical Spending will reach $3,154 billion, or fairly close to the entire current Federal Budget of $3.7 trillion.  This will clearly not happen.What's even more clear is that by the time you reach 85, 35 years hence, that $866 billion will reach $17,678 billion - that is, $17.7 trillion, or more than the entire current-dollar (2011) GDP of the United States.Bluntly: No it won't.

Medicare is but one example. Instituted under Johnson's Great Society. Call it what you like, it's a "Progressive" social welfare program. It's a part of the trough that can no longer be afforded. As I said, "You should know what was asked for over the last 30 years, being the good liberal you are." The social safety net / entitlement system built by the progressive movement is coming to an end. This was bound to happen at some point. You, of course, shall deny it till it bites you.






tj444 -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/15/2011 8:40:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: seekerofslut

This is part of what you do not understand - following is an excerpt.

Medicare and Medicaid as it exists today cannot survive.  There is no policy fix for it that is possible in the current medical paradigm. 


Same thing with govt pensions.. People are living to 80, 90, 100+, but they can retire at 65 with a full pension... yeah... we will see for how long.. Not to mention that the last 3 years of a persons life are the most expensive, medical-wise...





willbeurdaddy -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 7:17:20 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: seekerofslut

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

yawns, if you cant answer honestly and with straightforward information instead of the arrogant ignorance, , then thanks for the insight and I shan't respond to you again.
Its not worth the contempt you are inspiring again


This is part of what you do not understand - following is an excerpt.

Medicare and Medicaid as it exists today cannot survive.  There is no policy fix for it that is possible in the current medical paradigm.  This is not a matter of politics or "will", it is mathematics.Medical costs have risen at an average of about 9.5% a year for the last 20 years.  I use 10% in discussion because it's easier to understand but the difference between 9% (which understates it a bit) and 10% (which overstates it a bit) is not that material.  Both lead to ridiculous projections that can't happen and thus won't.In FY 2012 the Federal Budget for "Health Care" (Medicare + Medicaid, mostly) is $866 billion.  At a 9% escalation per year (which is about what it has been since 1980 when this spending was somewhat over $50 billion!) this leads to some interesting results.If you are 50 today and expect to qualify for Medicare at 65 by the time you reach 65 Federal Medical Spending will reach $3,154 billion, or fairly close to the entire current Federal Budget of $3.7 trillion.  This will clearly not happen.What's even more clear is that by the time you reach 85, 35 years hence, that $866 billion will reach $17,678 billion - that is, $17.7 trillion, or more than the entire current-dollar (2011) GDP of the United States.Bluntly: No it won't.

Medicare is but one example. Instituted under Johnson's Great Society. Call it what you like, it's a "Progressive" social welfare program. It's a part of the trough that can no longer be afforded. As I said, "You should know what was asked for over the last 30 years, being the good liberal you are." The social safety net / entitlement system built by the progressive movement is coming to an end. This was bound to happen at some point. You, of course, shall deny it till it bites you.





seeker, there is one problem with projections like this, although the conclusion that "Medicare as it is currently designed cannot survive" is correct. If you project health care cost growth at rates even marginally higher than GDP growth, health care grows as a percentage of GDP. The free market ultimately MUST dampen the growth of the cost of health care because it will not crowd out all (or even a majority of) other expenses.

There is a lot of speculation about what % of GDP is a realistic natural ceiling on health care costs, but opinions generally range between 20 and 25% of GDP. Projecting from 17% of GDP, and assuming health care grows at 5% while GDP (including health care) grows at 3%, the 20% threshold is met in just 9 years and 25% in 20.

Any projections of healthcare inflation that exceed those threshholds are highly suspect, and therefore there will not be as much pressure on Medicare as they would indicate.

The real question is how the dampening on costs take place...through the free market and self-rationing or government rationing. (Calling it "insurance company rationing" is simply a lie. Insurance companies will pay for anything as long as the policies and premiums are designed to support them. They are no more than a middle man.)




Aneirin -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 7:32:32 AM)

If the mechanisation of processes is seen to be the problem with high unemployment, have we been here before, and did the people concerned have a worthy point present in our modern times ?

http://www.luddites200.org.uk/theLuddites.html

Now myself in this recession, I make stuff by hand, that is no machines in the process at all manual hand tools, a colleague whos'e workshop I inhabit also makes similar stuff to me, but he has a bank of three phase machines to use, the result is he can create many units in a day where I can only produce one or two. Now he can make a living off his production whereas I cannot, yet my craftwork in a more resilient made out of a more expensive material and is to a much higher standard of workmanship, but I cannot survive on my production methods. So the way forward if I am to survive, is to either raise my prices, or mechanise and lose the high standard to which I work plus become indebted to financial providers and the ever greedy energy companies which at the end of the day does not automatically ensure success, but what it will always ensure is debt.

Now through my own observations I have come to the conclusion we have become a a cheap, selfish throw away society, we buy cheap and chuck away when it goes wrong only to buy again, that to me is wholely wrong in terms of resources, but those that create the throw away item, they don't care, because money is being made, depletion of resources is another generation's problem, if not their own.

What I see is the devaluing of products, things cheap and disposable are not valued and the cheaper a thing is the less likely it is to be valued and looked after and with things being cheap it less likely someone may purchase a more expensive more resilient product, because they can get cheaper and chuck away.

Over the last few days I had the interest to service two icons of british industry I own and use, one was a 1936 Rolls Viceroy mechanical razor and the other was a 1913 Singer 128k hand cranked sewing machine, both machines with their skins removed inspired pride in what British Industry used to be, built to last being the term and so many years after they had been built, they are still in regular use. Both machines taken apart degreased re-lubed and reassembled, working as good now as they were when they were first made, for I could not detect any slop or excessive backlash in any of the bearings or gearing.

Also over the last few days, my television has ceased to function and the digital decoder is as erratic as ever, in six years I have gone through five tv sets and three digital decoders, stuff just isn't built to last, it is ust to fulfill a need for a time then buy another when it fails which they most often do usually just outside the guarantee period. We are investing in junk and that is why we cannot compete, if we are to make any attempt at re industrialising our mentality needs addressing first.

I also regularly use an American Sheaffer's snorkel fountain pen and the iconic Zippo, two examples of American ingenuity that I just don't see coming out of the far east.

We need to start saying no to stuff we throw away and start buying what we need that lasts and for the stuff that goes haywire, start building our repair networks again, so we can stop wasting resources and sending our money overseas.




Lucylastic -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 7:57:06 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: seekerofslut

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

yawns, if you cant answer honestly and with straightforward information instead of the arrogant ignorance, , then thanks for the insight and I shan't respond to you again.
Its not worth the contempt you are inspiring again


This is part of what you do not understand - following is an excerpt.

Medicare and Medicaid as it exists today cannot survive.  There is no policy fix for it that is possible in the current medical paradigm.  This is not a matter of politics or "will", it is mathematics.Medical costs have risen at an average of about 9.5% a year for the last 20 years.  I use 10% in discussion because it's easier to understand but the difference between 9% (which understates it a bit) and 10% (which overstates it a bit) is not that material.  Both lead to ridiculous projections that can't happen and thus won't.In FY 2012 the Federal Budget for "Health Care" (Medicare + Medicaid, mostly) is $866 billion.  At a 9% escalation per year (which is about what it has been since 1980 when this spending was somewhat over $50 billion!) this leads to some interesting results.If you are 50 today and expect to qualify for Medicare at 65 by the time you reach 65 Federal Medical Spending will reach $3,154 billion, or fairly close to the entire current Federal Budget of $3.7 trillion.  This will clearly not happen.What's even more clear is that by the time you reach 85, 35 years hence, that $866 billion will reach $17,678 billion - that is, $17.7 trillion, or more than the entire current-dollar (2011) GDP of the United States.Bluntly: No it won't.

Medicare is but one example. Instituted under Johnson's Great Society. Call it what you like, it's a "Progressive" social welfare program. It's a part of the trough that can no longer be afforded. As I said, "You should know what was asked for over the last 30 years, being the good liberal you are." The social safety net / entitlement system built by the progressive movement is coming to an end. This was bound to happen at some point. You, of course, shall deny it till it bites you.




and you call me IGNORANT ?youve got some nerve, and then an utter bullshit link too
try coming up with some FACTS,outside of a weak wiki definition.

Oh... and then think outside your comfort zone, to people who will actually be affected.
Yanno like a compassionate human omg like a.a.a filthy liberal even.
[8|]


ps,




willbeurdaddy -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 9:51:00 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

Over the last few days I had the interest to service two icons of british industry I own and use, one was a 1936 Rolls Viceroy mechanical razor and the other was a 1913 Singer 128k hand cranked sewing machine, both machines with their skins removed inspired pride in what British Industry used to be, built to last being the term and so many years after they had been built, they are still in regular use. Both machines taken apart degreased re-lubed and reassembled, working as good now as they were when they were first made, for I could not detect any slop or excessive backlash in any of the bearings or gearing.



The sewing machine may have been built in the UK, but Singer was a US company, US patents and US design. They didnt open their Glasgow factory until about 16 years after they were already building in the US.

Also one of the first US companies destroyed by union contracts.




tj444 -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 10:51:20 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy
there is one problem with projections like this

As time goes on, more new ways to cure people or extend their lives are created, some very expensive drugs, treatments, machines/equipment.. imo those advances and their cost are hard to predict..




mnottertail -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 11:06:59 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

Also one of the first US companies destroyed by union contracts.


LOL. You might want to concentrate on peddling those dogshit REITs you tout as retirement plans for your first job. Cuz you obviously don't know much about anything else.

http://www.singerco.com/




seekerofslut -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 12:08:56 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic


and you call me IGNORANT ?youve got some nerve, and then an utter bullshit link too
try coming up with some FACTS,outside of a weak wiki definition.

Oh... and then think outside your comfort zone, to people who will actually be affected.
Yanno like a compassionate human omg like a.a.a filthy liberal even.
[8|]


You don't understand the data provided and all you can do is whine like a good liberal.

I rest my case.






rulemylife -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 12:14:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: stef

quote:

ORIGINAL: defiantbadgirl

Think of all the computer and manufacturing jobs that are now off-shore. Greedy corporations are basically committing treason and our government is doing nothing to stop it.

There is nothing treasonous about it, stop being such a drama queen.



It might not rise to the level of treason but there is certainly nothing good about it.

It does come down to pure greed.




willbeurdaddy -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 12:15:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444


quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy
there is one problem with projections like this

As time goes on, more new ways to cure people or extend their lives are created, some very expensive drugs, treatments, machines/equipment.. imo those advances and their cost are hard to predict..



You are correct, you cant predict their cost. What you can predict is that when healthcare costs approach a threshold percentage of GDP then R&D for those expensive treatments will dry up, because they wont have a big enough market to justify the investment. Id give you an example at the extremes but this board is so dense that they will argue that the example is too extreme to be real, and not even think about the concept applying in less extreme circumstances.




rulemylife -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 12:25:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

Over the last few days I had the interest to service two icons of british industry I own and use, one was a 1936 Rolls Viceroy mechanical razor and the other was a 1913 Singer 128k hand cranked sewing machine, both machines with their skins removed inspired pride in what British Industry used to be, built to last being the term and so many years after they had been built, they are still in regular use. Both machines taken apart degreased re-lubed and reassembled, working as good now as they were when they were first made, for I could not detect any slop or excessive backlash in any of the bearings or gearing.



The sewing machine may have been built in the UK, but Singer was a US company, US patents and US design. They didnt open their Glasgow factory until about 16 years after they were already building in the US.

Also one of the first US companies destroyed by union contracts.


Singer is still in business and doing well Mr. Economic Genius.

Singer® Sewing Company






Lucylastic -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 12:33:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: seekerofslut

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic


and you call me IGNORANT ?youve got some nerve, and then an utter bullshit link too
try coming up with some FACTS,outside of a weak wiki definition.

Oh... and then think outside your comfort zone, to people who will actually be affected.
Yanno like a compassionate human omg like a.a.a filthy liberal even.
[8|]


You don't understand the data provided and all you can do is whine like a good liberal.

I rest my case.




Wilbur pointed out the issues with your data thankyou
so unless you have proof that I dont understand what you havent shown
you can go and bugger pussycats




seekerofslut -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 12:39:36 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

There is a lot of speculation about what % of GDP is a realistic natural ceiling on health care costs, but opinions generally range between 20 and 25% of GDP.


Here's a look that does not paint a pretty picture.   Note the IMF working paper. It's going to get real interesting with that portion of the populace which demands the maintenance and continuation of that which can no longer be provided. Many will find this disgusting, but I will not shed a tear watching those who purposefully built the tumbling house of cards get their just rewards. I'll probably find it entertaining.






stef -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 12:59:09 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

It might not rise to the level of treason but there is certainly nothing good about it.

It's good for the company and it's stockholders.

quote:

It does come down to pure greed.

Businesses exist to make money and maximize their profits.

Alert the media.




willbeurdaddy -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 1:05:18 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rulemylife

quote:

ORIGINAL: willbeurdaddy

quote:

ORIGINAL: Aneirin

Over the last few days I had the interest to service two icons of british industry I own and use, one was a 1936 Rolls Viceroy mechanical razor and the other was a 1913 Singer 128k hand cranked sewing machine, both machines with their skins removed inspired pride in what British Industry used to be, built to last being the term and so many years after they had been built, they are still in regular use. Both machines taken apart degreased re-lubed and reassembled, working as good now as they were when they were first made, for I could not detect any slop or excessive backlash in any of the bearings or gearing.



The sewing machine may have been built in the UK, but Singer was a US company, US patents and US design. They didnt open their Glasgow factory until about 16 years after they were already building in the US.

Also one of the first US companies destroyed by union contracts.


Singer is still in business and doing well Mr. Economic Genius.

Singer® Sewing Company





Too be you are still an economic know nothing. It was broken up beginning in the late 80s and the pieces sold for a fraction of their value in the early 80s. The breakup was largely due to union demands and pressure on the defense division thanks to Clinton's squandering of the peace dividend.

I was involved in the sale of the only piece that sold for more than book value. I also provided expert testimony in lawsuits against Richard Bilzerian, so dont try and tell me what I already fucking know.




Hippiekinkster -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 1:10:47 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: kalikshama

quote:

It's very difficult to find products made in the US because greedy corporations outsourced so much manufacturing.


I knew someone who endeavored to not buy anything made in China for a year - I'll see if I can find out the result.

This wasn't her but: http://www.amazon.com/Year-Without-Made-China-Adventure/dp/0470116137

"...a fascinating and entertaining look at just how much of a challenge an average consumer faces...to avoid buying Chinese goods."





http://www.howtobuyamerican.com/index.php




seekerofslut -> RE: A 25-year recession...? (12/16/2011 1:57:17 PM)

50 Economic Numbers About The US That Are "Almost Too Crazy To Believe"






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