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Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 3:00:42 PM   
DarkSteven


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Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline 		http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/28/cnn-poll-romney-on-top-gingrich-fading-santorum-rising-in-iowa/?hpt=hp_t1

In Iowa, Santorum is beginning to take the ex-Newties.  His popularity is increasing while Gingrich's is decreasing.  My suspicion is that Romney's bloc is unchanged while the anyone-but-Romneyites are fleeing Newt and going to Santorum.  In other words, after Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich, it's Santorum's turn to be not-Romney.  Shame that my favorite GOPer, Huntsman, has never caught fire.

It looks like Romney is a lock for NH and either first or second in Iowa.  Paul should finish in the top three in Iowa, and I will assume that Santorum is a flash in the pan, and I don't want to predict who will be the third in the top three.  I expect Huntsman to drop out soon, and likely Perry as well.  Santorum and Bachmann will fight for the conservatives and born-agains, Romney will gather the moderate votes, and Paul will play to his own crowd.


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The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 5:07:53 PM   
provfivetine


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/28/cnn-poll-romney-on-top-gingrich-fading-santorum-rising-in-iowa/?hpt=hp_t1

In Iowa, Santorum is beginning to take the ex-Newties.  His popularity is increasing while Gingrich's is decreasing.  My suspicion is that Romney's bloc is unchanged while the anyone-but-Romneyites are fleeing Newt and going to Santorum.  In other words, after Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich, it's Santorum's turn to be not-Romney.  Shame that my favorite GOPer, Huntsman, has never caught fire.

It looks like Romney is a lock for NH and either first or second in Iowa.  Paul should finish in the top three in Iowa, and I will assume that Santorum is a flash in the pan, and I don't want to predict who will be the third in the top three.  I expect Huntsman to drop out soon, and likely Perry as well.  Santorum and Bachmann will fight for the conservatives and born-agains, Romney will gather the moderate votes, and Paul will play to his own crowd.



I agree with this.

Santorum is benefiting from positive media coverage, and, as you've indicated, it's his chance to be "not-Romney." However, I don't think he surges like Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich; his social conservative platform is not going to energize Republicans in this type of economy, and Santorum has already stated that he will drop out if he comes in last at Iowa, which is certainly a possibility. At this point, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Santorum, and Huntsman are simply lame-ducks and will drop out within the next couple of months, while Romney, Gingrich, and Paul hurl insults at each other and battle until they cannot go any further.

What is happening right now--and what is likely to continue happening--is an absolute horror-show for the Republican establishment, who cannot get behind any one candidate. I'm predicting that no candidate has over 50% of the delegates by the time the Republican convention rolls around. What the Republican establishment does after that--in a state of disarray--is anyones guess.

However, it's most likely that Gingrich or Romney gets the Republican nod. If so, then Ron Paul will counter by launching his own third-party bid (he will; he has NOTHING to lose at this point and has the resources to do so). Ron Paul and his supporters may not have enough establishment support to get the nomination, but they are powerful enough to make life miserable for establishment Republicans and can hijack the election.


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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 5:36:46 PM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: provfivetine
At this point, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Santorum, and Huntsman are simply lame-ducks and will drop out within the next couple of months, while Romney, Gingrich, and Paul hurl insults at each other and battle until they cannot go any further.


I don't agree.  A lot of Republicans, especially the conservatives, are not happy with Romney.  There are enough of them to keep either Perry, Santorum, or Bachmann afloat but not more than one.  For some odd reason, I don't see them going with Paul, and I sure don't see Gingrich as viable.  So let's say that Romney and either Santorum or Bachmann, and very likely Paul, will win the war of attrition. 
quote:



What is happening right now--and what is likely to continue happening--is an absolute horror-show for the Republican establishment, who cannot get behind any one candidate. I'm predicting that no candidate has over 50% of the delegates by the time the Republican convention rolls around. What the Republican establishment does after that--in a state of disarray--is anyones guess.


I hadn't thought of what happens if nobody gets a majority.  Last time that happened was to the Dems in 1968, and it destroyed the Democratic party for a while.  There will be powerful pressure within the GOP to avoid that happening - who knows how that could play out? 
quote:



However, it's most likely that Gingrich or Romney gets the Republican nod. If so, then Ron Paul will counter by launching his own third-party bid (he will; he has NOTHING to lose at this point and has the resources to do so). Ron Paul and his supporters may not have enough establishment support to get the nomination, but they are powerful enough to make life miserable for establishment Republicans and can hijack the election.



Like I said, I can't see Gingrich lasting.  Someone's going to have to represent the conservatives - Bachmann, Santorum, or a resurgent Perry.  So my prediction for the eventual three headed monster will be Romney, Bachmann/Santorum, and Paul still standing.

I frankly don't know what Paul's goal is here, but I can't see a third party bid for him accomplishing anything but handing a close election to Obama in a walkaway.  He might be able to use the threat of an independent bid as leverage to force the GOP to adopt a balanced budget amendment or something.


_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 6:23:35 PM   
SilverBoat


Posts: 257
Joined: 7/26/2006
Status: offline 		Does anybody want to wager on the smoke-filled-room strategists plugging in Bachmann for VP, regardless of how little she tallies in the primaries? They already figure she's got a lock on fundi-christian voting bloc, and so far she hasn't imploded quite as obviously as Palin did.

GOP's pick for the Prez run seems harder to call ... Most of the delegates are only obliged to electoralish votes for 1st thru nth rounds, and there may be no clear majority ...

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 6:26:11 PM   
Owner59


Posts: 17033
Joined: 3/14/2006
From: Dirty Jersey
Status: offline 		Oh god please make Michele the GOP VP candidate.......please please please!

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 6:32:18 PM   
SilverBoat


Posts: 257
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Status: offline 		Paul? Principles over ego? ... Disagreed, and I've been voting in an adjacent district for 30-something years ...
He's just a rather more facile weasel than some ...

He gets a lot of press down here, and draws 95% of his district-race funding from outside his electorate. Something like 25% of his voting-age population are illegal-residents or felony-disenfranchised.

He'll try to leverage himself into the VP slot, using 3rd-party run as threat, and might bugger-up with Trump anyway.

It could be a fun election to watch.

(in reply to Lucylastic)
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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 6:47:29 PM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline 		The only way Bachmann makes sense is if a centrist (Romney because Huntsman is too far down in the polls) gets the nomination and wants to appeal to the conservatives. But in that case, Perry might be a safer bet.  The problem is that all three of the cons, Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum, are likely to say something dumb at any point.  By the time the primary is over, I expect that Gingrich will have pissed everyone off enough that nobody will take him as VP.


_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 6:57:10 PM   
provfivetine


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Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverBoat

Paul? Principles over ego? ... Disagreed, and I've been voting in an adjacent district for 30-something years ...
He's just a rather more facile weasel than some ...

He gets a lot of press down here, and draws 95% of his district-race funding from outside his electorate. Something like 25% of his voting-age population are illegal-residents or felony-disenfranchised.

He'll try to leverage himself into the VP slot, using 3rd-party run as threat, and might bugger-up with Trump anyway.

It could be a fun election to watch.


Do you even follow Ron Paul? He despises both Dems and Repubs, but is too much of a nice guy to actually say what he thinks. Why would an anarcho-capitalist support any of these potential candidates? Leverage himself into a VP slot, with Trump?

Where do you get your weed from?

(in reply to SilverBoat)
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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 7:14:28 PM   
Winterapple


Posts: 1343
Joined: 8/19/2011
Status: offline 		It will be interesting to see how the anyone but Romney faction expresses itself.
Will they just not vote or pick an alternative?
I can't see any of the other candidates getting
a solid push. I think Bachman, Paul and Newtie
will split the faction with Santorum and Perry
getting a few votes here or there.
I don't think any if the candidates will be
on the ticket with Romney as VP.
Bachman is to much like Palin, Perry is to
much like Bush and has made a fool of
himself to often and everybody hates Newt
and knows he is toxic for a general election.
They will never offer it to Paul who they see
as a loose cannon.
I can see Paul running as a third party candidate. What's he got to lose? He's
seventy something years old it's going
to be his last hurrah. And what loyalty
does he owe the party? What have they
ever done for him?
And he's more of a libertarian than a
republican anyway. Except where abortion
is concerned then he's content for
government to be all up in peoples business.
I think Ralph Nader is almost surely a man
of principle. Principle and ego. But no one has
ever ran for president that didn't have a big
ego. It's not a game that attracts the modest.

and


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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 7:26:28 PM   
Miserlou


Posts: 264
Joined: 12/20/2011
Status: offline 		i like huntsman too, but he just doesn't say enough stupid things, so he doesn't get the press, so nobody seems to have heard of him. that's a sad state of affairs for the gop to be in, when the only way to get to the top of the polls is to be a dork.

i would vote for him and i probably could vote for romney, but i couldn't vote for any of the others.


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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 7:27:45 PM   
MasterSlaveLA


Posts: 3991
Status: offline 		 
It's just now his turn at the sippy-cup.



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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 7:33:58 PM   
Owner59


Posts: 17033
Joined: 3/14/2006
From: Dirty Jersey
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: provfivetine

quote:

ORIGINAL: SilverBoat

Paul? Principles over ego? ... Disagreed, and I've been voting in an adjacent district for 30-something years ...
He's just a rather more facile weasel than some ...

He gets a lot of press down here, and draws 95% of his district-race funding from outside his electorate. Something like 25% of his voting-age population are illegal-residents or felony-disenfranchised.

He'll try to leverage himself into the VP slot, using 3rd-party run as threat, and might bugger-up with Trump anyway.

It could be a fun election to watch.


Do you even follow Ron Paul? He despises both Dems and Repubs, but is too much of a nice guy to actually say what he thinks. Why would an anarcho-capitalist support any of these potential candidates? Leverage himself into a VP slot, with Trump?

Where do you get your weed from?


"He despises both Dems and Repubs, but is too much of a nice guy to actually say what he thinks."

So that`s bullshit you just made up....... out`a your own head?

You`re making fender look smart.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 12/28/2011 7:34:32 PM >

_____________________________

"As for our common defense, we reject as false the choice between our safety and our ideals"

President Obama

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 7:36:11 PM   
InvisibleBlack


Posts: 865
Joined: 7/24/2009
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/28/cnn-poll-romney-on-top-gingrich-fading-santorum-rising-in-iowa/?hpt=hp_t1

In Iowa, Santorum is beginning to take the ex-Newties.  His popularity is increasing while Gingrich's is decreasing.  My suspicion is that Romney's bloc is unchanged while the anyone-but-Romneyites are fleeing Newt and going to Santorum.  In other words, after Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich, it's Santorum's turn to be not-Romney.  Shame that my favorite GOPer, Huntsman, has never caught fire.

It looks like Romney is a lock for NH and either first or second in Iowa.  Paul should finish in the top three in Iowa, and I will assume that Santorum is a flash in the pan, and I don't want to predict who will be the third in the top three.  I expect Huntsman to drop out soon, and likely Perry as well.  Santorum and Bachmann will fight for the conservatives and born-agains, Romney will gather the moderate votes, and Paul will play to his own crowd.



I just don't see Santorum as playing well enough generally to move up to the Romney level. In 2008 he couldn't poll well enough against the bleak field of Romney and McCain to even stay in the race. He's not an A-league contender.

The lack of credible leaders at a national level (and I include the Democratic Party as well in this) is a major concern of mine. If this is truly the best we can do, then as a nation we're in big trouble.

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 7:39:55 PM   
Miserlou


Posts: 264
Joined: 12/20/2011
Status: offline
quote:

If this is truly the best we can do, then as a nation we're in big trouble.
i couldn't agree more if you paid me.

and i'm a registered republican so they have offered to pay me.

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and the history books forgot about us

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/28/2011 9:06:37 PM   
popeye1250


Posts: 18104
Joined: 1/27/2006
From: New Hampshire
Status: offline 		Steven, like you said, "Santorum?!?!?!"
I didn't even know that he was in the race, not that I'm following it anyway.
I'd like to see Ron Paul become president just to shake up everything in Washington! That town really does need an enema!
We're not going to have any "Change" as long as we keep electing Reps and Dems!

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/29/2011 7:11:15 AM   
Owner59


Posts: 17033
Joined: 3/14/2006
From: Dirty Jersey
Status: offline 		Never heard of`m?

Goggle Santorum, why don`t you?

No one`s buying your independent BS, pops.

Come next Nov.,you`d vote for Sen. Frothymix just like a good republican should.

< Message edited by Owner59 -- 12/29/2011 7:12:45 AM >

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/29/2011 7:18:04 AM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: InvisibleBlack

I just don't see Santorum as playing well enough generally to move up to the Romney level. In 2008 he couldn't poll well enough against the bleak field of Romney and McCain to even stay in the race. He's not an A-league contender.



I'd agree, but... I see Romney and Paul as taking the moderate and Libertarian GOP votes. That leaves the conservatives with nowhere to go.  They can go with Bachmann, Santorum, or Perry (I don't see them going with a thrice-married adulterer and serial liar.  And his popularity is tanking now).  So ONE of those three will end up with the conservative votes unless they decide to hold their nose and vote for Romney as the most electable Republican candidate.   
quote:



The lack of credible leaders at a national level (and I include the Democratic Party as well in this) is a major concern of mine. If this is truly the best we can do, then as a nation we're in big trouble.


Agreed.  Although it might not be the leader's faults.  The Internet opens them up to such scrutiny that they really are being forced into molds, and they have to answer to too many interests.  A couple of decades ago, everyone would have told Norquist to shove his pledge.


_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/29/2011 7:34:23 AM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
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quote:

quote:


What is happening right now--and what is likely to continue happening--is an absolute horror-show for the Republican establishment, who cannot get behind any one candidate. I'm predicting that no candidate has over 50% of the delegates by the time the Republican convention rolls around. What the Republican establishment does after that--in a state of disarray--is anyones guess.


I hadn't thought of what happens if nobody gets a majority. Last time that happened was to the Dems in 1968, and it destroyed the Democratic party for a while. There will be powerful pressure within the GOP to avoid that happening - who knows how that could play out?


That won't happen, because the Republican system, unlike the Democrats, is a winner-take-all approach, and as such, is designed to pick an early candidate. McCain is a good example...lack luster support from his own party, but the "clear" winner long before the convention.

So, whatever the mess (and yes, there is one), one candidate will have a majority of delegates; it would take an exact split of primary wins/delegates to be otherwise (and thus, extraordinarily unlikely).

What *will* happen, like last time, is that while one will win ("There can only be One..."), commentators will bitch about it and threaten to withhold their votes (like Coulter's "I'll vote for Hilary; she's more conservative than McCain"). Then on Election Day, they'll all vote for anything Republican.

The Circus will, however, hurt their chances with independent voters. But independent voters are hard to predict (presumably because they are, after all, independent).

(in reply to DarkSteven)
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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/29/2011 7:41:49 AM   
Hillwilliam


Posts: 19394
Joined: 8/27/2008
Status: offline 		I don't see Bachman running for VEEP helping the republican ticket.

The fundies will vote Republican no matter who is running and Bachman a heartbeat away from the presidency would scare a lot of the Independents that are pissed off at Obama right back into his camp as a "lesser of 2 evils" vote.

If the RNC would just realize that they dont have to Kowtow to the Religious fundies to keep them from voting Dem, they could do a lot more to attract Independents and OWN the election.

< Message edited by Hillwilliam -- 12/29/2011 7:43:15 AM >

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Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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RE: Santorum?!?!?! - 12/29/2011 7:41:59 AM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline
quote:

We're not going to have any "Change" as long as we keep electing Reps and Dems!


Good luck with that. It hasn't happened since 1850 (Fillmore, a Whig).

That didn't bring "change" either.

The only independent ever elected was George Washington in 1788.
[Jackson went his own way, and tried to form a new party, but still ran on party endorsement--1828.]



< Message edited by Musicmystery -- 12/29/2011 7:43:35 AM >

(in reply to popeye1250)
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