Doomsday virus (Full Version)

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Iamsemisweet -> Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 12:11:58 PM)

Great, more good scientific news.  This from the Atlantic:

Shouldn't regular citizens be able to weigh in on whether scientists are allowed to play with a virus that could kill a third of the population? [image]http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/food/assets_c/2012/02/BirdFluSS-Post-thumb-615x300-78320.jpg[/image] It might be the most lethal invention ever to come out of a lab. "I can't think of another pathogenic organism that is as scary as this one," the microbiologist Paul Kiem told The New Scientist.
The frightening new virus was created by Ron Fouchier, a researcher in the Netherlands, last year as he was experimenting with the bird flu. So far, human-to-human transmission of the bird flu has been rare because the virus lacks the necessary equipment to travel in a sneeze. But for years public-health experts have feared that it would one day go airborne. The bird flu has killed roughly 50 percent of the few people it has infected. If it could spread as easily as the seasonal flu, it would kill with the ferocity of a doomsday virus in a science-fiction movie.
I believe in scientific freedom. But the issue here is not free speech and thought. It's a debate about risk.

And now that worst-case virus may have arrived. In the course of his investigations, Fouchier inadvertently engineered a virus that passes its death sentence through a sneeze. For now, the virus only exists in a lab in Rotterdam. (A somewhat less lethal version was created by another team of scientists last year, in Madison, Wisconsin.) Though the virus has only been tested in ferrets, which have respiratory tracts similar to our own, many scientists agree there's a good chance it could be just as lethal in humans.
Fouchier and many of his colleagues want to continue working with the super-bird-flu, despite its dangers. Meanwhile, a number of scientists -- along with the editorial board of The New York Times -- argue that this kind of research might just lead to the apocalypse. "We nearly always champion unfettered scientific research and open publication of the results," The New York Times editors wrote. But "in this case it looks like the research should never have been undertaken because the potential harm is so catastrophic and the potential benefits from studying the virus so speculative. Unless the scientific community and health officials can provide more persuasive justifications than they have so far, the new virus, which is in the Netherlands, ought to be destroyed."
In response to such concerns, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) asked scientists to suspend research on the lab-created bird flu until late March. During this brief moratorium, an elite group of professionals will discuss how to go forward with the research. The debate will happen in a closed-door meeting. You and I are not invited. Why has the public been shut out? Shouldn't regular citizens be able to weigh in on whether scientists are allowed to play with a virus that could kill a third of the world's population? Of course, in almost every other case, I believe in scientific freedom. But the issue here is not free speech and thought. It's a debate about risk. In this case, the risk posed by noodling with the super-bird-flu is so extreme that it affects all of us. Are you willing to bet your life on this research?
It distresses me, then, that the conversation is taking place in a closed room. Members of the public should be able to speak out as well.
In an attempt to do just that, I called the NIH's National Science Advisory Board for Biosecurity and asked whether I could submit my comments through email or a public website. I was told I could not. (However, the receptionist did give me a street address, and said that I could mail in a paper letter.)
In my response to my continued inquiries and pestering, an NIH communications officer told me that the NIH would provide an email address for feedback. She said she'd get back to me. That was more than three weeks ago. I haven't heard anything from her.
While we wait for the NIH to provide an online forum, here are some (admittedly lame) ways that you can express your views about the lab-created bird flu:
  • You can go on Facebook and like the idea of halting research on the doomsday virus.
  • Or you can root around in your desk for a paper envelope and send an old-fashioned letter:
        NIH Office of Communications and Public Liaison
        9000 Rockville Pike
        MSC 0188
        Bethesda, Maryland
        20892-0188





Real0ne -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 12:28:40 PM)

you have nothing to worry about until they have an antidote or preventative means.

agreed, there is not reason to juggle nitro-glycerin and fire and pray no mistake is made





Hillwilliam -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 12:55:05 PM)

There are people working on such things who don't mean us well.

Isn't it a good idea to have "Good guys" working on it as well so they can take the genome apart and see what makes it tick in order to find a cure?




SternSkipper -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 7:05:35 PM)

Look Don't You Guys DARE Talk that way about Monsanto or corporate will FedEx all of you a shiny new canary!





SternSkipper -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 7:08:33 PM)

quote:

And now that worst-case virus may have arrived. In the course of his investigations, Fouchier inadvertently engineered a virus that passes its death sentence through a sneeze. For now, the virus only exists in a lab in Rotterdam. (A somewhat less lethal version was created by another team of scientists last year, in Madison, Wisconsin.) Though the virus has only been tested in ferrets, which have respiratory tracts similar to our own, many scientists agree there's a good chance it could be just as lethal in humans.


There's only one way to find out.... Maybelle, get me the test Gingrich supporter!





Iamsemisweet -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 7:08:41 PM)

I wonder what the security is like in the lab. Among other things
quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

There are people working on such things who don't mean us well.

Isn't it a good idea to have "Good guys" working on it as well so they can take the genome apart and see what makes it tick in order to find a cure?




SternSkipper -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 7:18:34 PM)

quote:

I believe in scientific freedom. But the issue here is not free speech and thought. It's a debate about risk


I've been watching the debate about this paper they want widely released on the virus for more than a month and I think it's remarkable the "free speech" thing keeps coming up in a world that does not universally have free speech.
Weird is should percolate up on an issue like this, isn't it?





Hillwilliam -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 7:32:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Iamsemisweet

I wonder what the security is like in the lab. Among other things
quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

There are people working on such things who don't mean us well.

Isn't it a good idea to have "Good guys" working on it as well so they can take the genome apart and see what makes it tick in order to find a cure?


If it's anything like the CDC in Atlanta, Fort Knox could take lessons from them.




Kaliko -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 7:49:13 PM)

FR

I hate the idea of this, of course. But I also maintain the general assumption that things like this are happening, whether we hear about it in the news or not, and whether it's our side or not.




Real0ne -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 10:05:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

There are people working on such things who don't mean us well.

Isn't it a good idea to have "Good guys" working on it as well so they can take the genome apart and see what makes it tick in order to find a cure?



well that anthrax for instance was US born and bred military grade, not that I believe it was anything less than internally politically motivated.

It sux when every topic can be assigned some government abuse and or misuse doesnt it.




Rule -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 10:34:02 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Iamsemisweet
[/blockquote]In the course of his investigations, Fouchier inadvertently engineered a virus that passes its death sentence through a sneeze.

Wrong. He made his variant purposely. This is how people who want to make such viruses go about it: it is not done in some secret hide-away, but in public. The next step is an unfortunate accident.

The primary danger, however, is not the virus variant itself, but rather that he developed a method to repeat the same with any extremely lethal animal virus. It is like giving a hungry man not a fish, but a hook and angling rod.




Rule -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/16/2012 10:40:07 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne
you have nothing to worry about until they have an antidote or preventative means.

Quite. Which leads me to suspect that there has been for at least thirty years an extremely effective cure against HIV, unbeknownst to the public.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam
There are people working on such things who don't mean us well.

Isn't it a good idea to have "Good guys" working on it as well so they can take the genome apart and see what makes it tick in order to find a cure?

Anybody who works on it is one of the evil guys or is financed by them. You, being an innocent, suffer from a lack of paranoia, not so?




Aswad -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/17/2012 6:37:50 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Iamsemisweet

I wonder what the security is like in the lab. Among other things


Biosafety level 4 protocols.

Seperate entry and exit zones with decontamination. Airtight suits with positive internal pressure. Airtight building with negative internal pressure. Multiple one-way airlocks that require both inside and outside security to agree to open the doors, and hardwired to prevent both doors from being open at the same time. High energy organicidal lamps that inflict third degree burns if you're not in your suit. Nanometer sized filters for the air supply. Large security zone to limit physical access, and the military is usually allowed to deal with any threats to such a facility (in NATO countries, they can secure such a facility by any means found necessary if it is believed to be at risk or already compromised).

That sort of thing.

It isn't lost on them just how crucial it is to maintain absolute integrity in such a facility. They want to go home to their families at the end of the day, and they want their families to remain alive. Hence, they will store every pathogen we encounter, and study all of them, in some of the most secure facilities humanity can make, with some of the most stringent security protocols humanity can make. The precautions used are derived directly from the work on creating biological weapons of mass destruction, with a similarly serious mindset.

Level 4 isn't for playing with the common cold or the seasonal flu.

It's for pathogens with no known treatment or vaccine, usually airborne, usually very contagious, all with a high mortality rate (typically in the 80 to 100% range). Things like viral hemorrhagic fevers, which are class A biowarfare agents. Or things like smallpox, the only human pathogen to have been intentionally made extinct worldwide, by intense and coordinated efforts over three decades. Contagious nightmares we all hope never to see unleashed on civilization, of which even a tiny outbreak may merit martial law.

That's what these places are designed to make safe to work with.

A formidable task, and one taken very seriously.

Theoretically, one could have a higher rated facility than the ones currently in place, but unless someone comes up with a highly contagious, cross species pathogen with a long incubation period and very high lethality, that is persistently airborne and has sufficient viability after crossing open ocean, such a major investment is unlikely to happen. One also doesn't really have much incentive to make such a pathogen, anyway, and it would be incredibly hard, so what we've presently got is essentially good enough.

Moving on to the topic...

What they're supposed to evaluate, is whether there may be something to gain. If there isn't, then even an infinitesmal risk is unacceptable. If there may be something to gain, the risk is probably acceptable (in the sense of "comparable to other, already accepted or unavoidable risks of equal severity"). Humanity hasn't got a whole lot of people that can actually evaluate this in a meaningful way, and those we do have, will. Thankfully, the general public won't be allowed to distract them from this demanding work.

That said, it isn't unreasonable to set abstract criterion that have to be adhered to, defined in terms that are estimable. For instance, there is a finite and estimable risk of an extinction level impact event. So long as one stays below that level of risk, for anything that has potential gain, it's hard to argue that it's a risk that is ill advised. Such a criterion doesn't require specific knowledge of the field to set forth, and it can thus be applied in the concrete by those who do have such knowledge. This is something the general public, if it had a voice in politics, could set forth in the interest of reasonably informed consent as bystanders. And then still stay out of the debates on how that translates into a given field.

Any facebook petitions to end the research are less than useful input.

Try asking them to present facts for the lay person, instead.

Without that, a petition is uninformed opinion.

Health,
al-Aswad.





chiaThePet -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/17/2012 6:47:41 AM)


Everyone needs to just calm down and take a deep breath.

oops

chia* (the pet)




kalikshama -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/17/2012 7:16:30 AM)

Who has read Plum Island by Nelson DeMille?




pyroaquatic -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/17/2012 9:13:22 AM)

Given the fact that a virus can mutate on its own where would you rather have these experiments take place:

Scientific Lab.
Unprepared Cities.

In looking at the risk vs reward scenario and how a scientist created the next 'logical evolution' in this Bird Flu accidentally...

I would much prefer to have sterile and controlled observation and experimentation in a Laboratory...

rather than New York City.

Just because you destroy this Doomsday Virus does not mean you destroy the next permutations of the Bird Flu into this deadly pandemic out in the wild.

In my opinion the risk of studying it in a lab far outweighs the risk of studying it out in the field, naturally.

Security aside, I can imagine there are implementations in place to vaporize the thing the moment a breech occurs and given enough time and resources a cure could be created before it is used as a weapon.

And what is to stop a another maligned scientist from recreating the Doom Virus from the Avian Flu again with or without any papers?




pyroaquatic -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/17/2012 9:20:53 AM)

quote:

unless someone comes up with a highly contagious, cross species pathogen with a long incubation period and very high lethality, that is persistently airborne and has sufficient viability after crossing open ocean


Humanity meets those criterion...




Aswad -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/17/2012 11:16:21 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: pyroaquatic

Humanity meets those criterion...


Obviously.

But it is rare that diseases cure previous instances of themselves.

Health,
al-Aswad.




Moonhead -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/18/2012 5:07:54 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Iamsemisweet
Shouldn't regular citizens be able to weigh in on whether scientists are allowed to play with a virus that could kill a third of the population?


Not until they're allowed to weigh in on whether financiers should be allowed to crash the global economy, no.




Hillwilliam -> RE: Doomsday virus (2/18/2012 5:11:13 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Moonhead


quote:

ORIGINAL: Iamsemisweet
Shouldn't regular citizens be able to weigh in on whether scientists are allowed to play with a virus that could kill a third of the population?


Not until they're allowed to weigh in on whether financiers should be allowed to crash the global economy, no.

As soon as those regular citizens gain the technical knowledge to make informed decisions they should. Oops, if they spend that much time learning, they would be scientists.

So called 'regular citizens' who know fuckall about the subject but are still allowed to make the important decisions is the main reason the allmighty dollar is much more important than the planet we live on.




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