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Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 8:27:12 AM

Owner59

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-24/purchases-of-new-houses-in-u-s-exceeded-forecasts-in-january.html

"Sales, tabulated when contracts are signed, fell 0.9 percent to a 321,000 annual pace from a 324,000 rate in December that was stronger than previously reported, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The median estimate of 77 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News called for a rise to 315,000. The number of homes for sale dropped to a record low."

And now for the requisite con`s denial,spin and sour-grapes whining.....the icing on thw cake......

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 8:35:21 AM

tj444

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well,.. by all means, lets have a parade!...

you bring the champagne (the real stuff, not the cheap shite)

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 9:01:24 AM

Hillwilliam

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I've noticed more people looking lately and have a coupla sales in the pipeline. I need it. BAD.

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 9:47:55 AM

Owner59

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This could be the start of getting back to some sort of semblance of what the housing market was the great recession.

Finally,after having an unprecedented, record number of existing homes dumped onto the market with no end in sight.......there`s an end in sight.

Just imagine if Detroit was allowed to fail.......our biggest industries and economic driving engines?

We would still be in the hole today,trying to absorb the tens of thousands of empty homes that would have continued to flood the market,as Detroit businesses failed and more Americans lost their jobs.

But Obama didn`t let that happen and we`re now seeing the number of existing homes for sale going down,finally stabilizing the price tumble our homes(and us) have been suffering

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 10:27:23 AM

Kana

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quote:

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts

So someone sold their house?

Grins
Seriously though, I used to do real estate financial analysis for this iron fisted, steel brassiered wombat who was one of the nations experts in the field and it was her informed opinion that right now in the US we have enough houses left over from the real estate boom/building glut sitting empty to satisfy US need for the next decade if not one new house is built during that time frame.
If I was a builder or realtor, I would be worried.

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 1:31:00 PM

Real0ne

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Owner59

This could be the start of getting back to some sort of semblance of what the housing market was the great recession.

Finally,after having an unprecedented, record number of existing homes dumped onto the market with no end in sight.......there`s an end in sight.

Just imagine if Detroit was allowed to fail.......our biggest industries and economic driving engines?

We would still be in the hole today,trying to absorb the tens of thousands of empty homes that would have continued to flood the market,as Detroit businesses failed and more Americans lost their jobs.

But Obama didn`t let that happen and we`re now seeing the number of existing homes for sale going down,finally stabilizing the price tumble our homes(and us) have been suffering

what I said before the browser went fucking apeshit;

Cheerleaders!

The el prezidante has nothing to do with it.

Well except corporate bailout.

The bankers ochestrated it.

< Message edited by Real0ne -- 2/24/2012 1:34:44 PM >

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 1:50:22 PM

Edwynn

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On what basis of future demand are these numbers given? Just as supply never remains constant, neither does demand. Based on the present demand and the concomitant price elasticity of demand, I wouldn't doubt her numbers, as from current market value contemporaneously applied. Predicting future demand is another matter.

Real estate has not always been about simple consideration of whatever measure of 'housing units per population' vs. 'population seeking housing units.' Those formerly seeking better houses in better neighborhoods for purpose of increasing personal wealth have seen demonstrated in most blunt fashion obliteration of the now anachronistic notion that your own house is a good investment. That and the employment and general economic situation are the determiner of housing demand, and that is why it stands where it is at present.

I'm not saying that we might ever recover from our current housing density vs. population density limitation that applies in third world countries, but if that were to be the case I sure as heck wouldn't want to brag about it.

< Message edited by Edwynn -- 2/24/2012 2:00:16 PM >

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 2:22:50 PM

tj444

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lol And here is virtually the same January new home sales stats with the exact opposite analysis..
dont ya just love it! Who do you believe?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-sales-dip-4-straight-150209041.html

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 2:35:32 PM

Hillwilliam

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kana

quote:

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts

it was her informed opinion that right now in the US we have enough houses left over from the real estate boom/building glut sitting empty to satisfy US need for the next decade if not one new house is built during that time frame.

It depends on where you are. Vacancy rates in my county are under 5%. You can drive down the street and pass 100 or more homes and they all have someone in them. We never boomed so we never depreciated. We have about 64,000 people in this county and as of 10 mins ago, there were 18 foreclosures on the market.

Not exactly Ft Myers FL

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Kinkier than a cheap garden hose.

Whoever said "Religion is the opiate of the masses" never heard Right Wing talk radio.

Don't blame me, I voted for Gary Johnson.

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 2:38:11 PM

DarkSteven

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I have no idea what that means.

Either people are buying more homes period, or else people are deciding to buy fewer used homes and are choosing new homes instead. Give me some data regarding total homes sold and median price, and it'll mean something to me.

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 2:40:06 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kana

quote:

Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts

it was her informed opinion that right now in the US we have enough houses left over from the real estate boom/building glut sitting empty to satisfy US need for the next decade if not one new house is built during that time frame.

It depends on where you are. Vacancy rates in my county are under 5%. You can drive down the street and pass 100 or more homes and they all have someone in them. We never boomed so we never depreciated. We have about 64,000 people in this county and as of 10 mins ago, there were 18 foreclosures on the market.

Not exactly Ft Myers FL

perhaps not but if the real estate market has dropped, prices wise, then how many are underwater and cant move, even if they want to? I would think if what you say is so in your area that there should be more sales than there are.. sorta strange..

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 3:28:52 PM

Fellow

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Good news for the homeless?

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 4:12:53 PM

Kana

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwynn

On what basis of future demand are these numbers given? Just as supply never remains constant, neither does demand. Based on the present demand and the concomitant price elasticity of demand, I wouldn't doubt her numbers, as from current market value contemporaneously applied. Predicting future demand is another matter.

Real estate has not always been about simple consideration of whatever measure of 'housing units per population' vs. 'population seeking housing units.' Those formerly seeking better houses in better neighborhoods for purpose of increasing personal wealth have seen demonstrated in most blunt fashion obliteration of the now anachronistic notion that your own house is a good investment. That and the employment and general economic situation are the determiner of housing demand, and that is why it stands where it is at present.

I'm not saying that we might ever recover from our current housing density vs. population density limitation that applies in third world countries, but if that were to be the case I sure as heck wouldn't want to brag about it.

Really, frankly, I have no idea where she got the numbers. What I do know is that:
1-She did long term in depth financial analysis of the US real estate market concentrating more on private dwellings than commercial real estate.
2-She took a macro rather than a micro view of the market so of course some pockets exist.
3-While I don't know the exact numbers I did work enough with her to know the basic format. When doing long term financial analysis folks build mathematical models of varying degrees of complexity. Each of these is going to be worked at least 3 ways-worst case scenario, best case scenario and average outcome. Now, she built models working on at least 5 different spectrum's, factoring in kinda bad, kinda good scenarios as well. Then you punch the whole thing through regression analysis to make sure your coefficients are actually valid. When discussing results generally, the mid range is used.
Thus, her models included population growth, economic growth (Or the lacks thereof) as well as a variety of other scenarios (Fuel prices for instance),then she would extrapolate the results. When she made her "having enough residences for a decade" comment, she was taking the middle of the road.

And she wasn't the only one. I've sat in on conferences with her and folks from the Fed, the Treasury as well as the World Bank and she toed the same line with all of em....to the point of commenting that her while her digits came out with a decade, she personally, and professionally, thought the glut was larger than that due to folks stuck underwater in mortgages they couldn't afford who would be defaulting in the near future.

And not one of the "experts" blinked at her assessment. Most of them, in private, concurred, and more than a few agreed that her numbers were a bit rosy

< Message edited by Kana -- 2/24/2012 4:16:18 PM >

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 4:58:39 PM

tj444

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ok Kana.. I plugged "iron fisted, steel brassiered wombat" into google to find out more about her projections/forecast.. and I couldnt find anything.. lol So who is she? happen to have any sources of her forecasts, etc?

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 5:26:36 PM

SoftBonds

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444

ok Kana.. I plugged "iron fisted, steel brassiered wombat" into google to find out more about her projections/forecast.. and I couldnt find anything.. lol So who is she? happen to have any sources of her forecasts, etc?

I did an image search and didn't find any good pictures. I want "iron fisted, steel brassiered wombat" porn darnit!!!

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 5:30:03 PM

Kana

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quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444

ok Kana.. I plugged "iron fisted, steel brassiered wombat" into google to find out more about her projections/forecast.. and I couldnt find anything.. lol So who is she? happen to have any sources of her forecasts, etc?

Nope. And I'm not gonna out an employer on a BDSM website, TYVM. That would be tantamount to outing my secret identity...and we all know that no real and Twue International Man of Mystery can ever do that-it's against the code. :-)

I will say that she was the head of the Finance Department at a major U, was considered one of, if not the, experts in local and Mid Atlantic real estate markets, her specialty was and is real estate finance and that was considered enough of an expert in her field to do paid consulting for National Realty Companies and Organizations and private banks/investment companies as well as the Feds. Her credentials were impeccable.

That said...

I wasn't trying to stir any debate with my comment-hence I ain't backing it up with any hard stats (Though I suspect I could find em pretty quick with a little work).
I was merely passing along an anecdote, not trying to stake a claim and then back it up.

When I have a hard and personal opinion on something I tend to be all over it (Just check out some of my past posts-grins)-in this instance I happened to have worked with one of the "experts" (And I'm as skeptical as the next cat when it comes to experts, especially when it comes to things like econ and forecasting, both of which are wildly open to personal interpretation-I mean, it's common to hand two econ experts the exact same data and watch them draw vastly divergent conclusions...and then back it up)and have heard (and re-heard and re-heard) her comment on this, thus I passed along her analysis.
That's all.
See how easy that was :-)

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"One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die. "
HST

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 5:34:44 PM

tj444

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I did find this graphic... sorta says it all, dont it?

"Overall, as shown in Figure 4-1, the decline in inflation-adjusted home prices was unprecedented in the post-World War I U.S. economic experience in both its severity and its geographic scope. Some of the regional housing recessions—notably in California and New England in the early 1990s—generated sharp and long-lasting price declines, but neither was as steep and prolonged as the current episode. And during the Great Depression, the only other instance of nationwide price declines since WWI, much of the comparably-sized decline in nominal home prices was offset by a concurrent drop in general price levels, so the decline in real housing values was only about one-quarter as large as the one we recently experienced."
http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ERP_2012_ch_4.pdf

Attachment (1)

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 5:36:40 PM

Kana

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Hmmm, thinking about it, it shouldn't be too tough to figure a rough estimate.
Find out how many houses are on the market, empty or in some state of foreclosure.
Run a regression model using anywhere from 1% to 10% home buying...and remember we are talking new houses-not people selling one house to buy another-that does nothing to solve the empty house syndrome.
Then run the model for a decade, then jam out the figures.

_____________________________

"One of God's own prototypes. A high-powered mutant of some kind never even considered for mass production. Too weird to live, and too rare to die. "
HST

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 5:40:10 PM

kalikshama

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quote:

And now for the requisite con`s denial, spin and sour-grapes whining.....the icing on the cake......

(in reply to Owner59)

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RE: Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts - 2/24/2012 5:41:52 PM

tj444

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kana

quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444
ok Kana.. I plugged "iron fisted, steel brassiered wombat" into google to find out more about her projections/forecast.. and I couldnt find anything.. lol So who is she? happen to have any sources of her forecasts, etc?

Nope. And I'm not gonna out an employer on a BDSM website, TYVM. That would be tantamount to outing my secret identity...and we all know that no real and Twue International Man of Mystery can ever do that-it's against the code. :-)

lol Opppps, sorry, didnt know there was a working relationship there.. it just sorta sounded like she was someone out of a group of speakers..

I have read reports by various experts that work at Universites tho.. yes i agree, give 2 experts the same data and get different forecasts..

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