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My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 7:09:14 PM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline 		1. Romney will win the GOP nomination. That's a given. Based on the last few weeks, he's been steadily inching his way forward, and winning solidly if not spectacularly. The huge question is, when will he wrap it up? Both Gingrich and Santorum are not showing any signs of resigning in the face of overwhelming odds. It is a huge matter because Romney needs to spend as much effort/time/money as possible in the general, and he can't do that till he wins the primary.

2. Romney's VP selection is unclear. Romney's needs at VP are huge and no one person will meet them all. Palin will bring some pizzazz to the ticket as well as social media savvy, but her negatives are too strong. Rubio could bring some pizzazz and Florida, but he's a Cuban-American and somewhat out of step with the Hispanic community at large. Santorum would bring the conservatives but lose independent support. Paul would bring the libertarians and some conservatives, as well as a good organization, but he's weak with independents and I suspect he's not up to the rigors of a full campaign. Gingrich is incredible at negative campaigning, finding and exploiting opponents' weaknesses, but his negatives are huge and I suspect he'd be unwilling to be second banana. I wonder about odd choices like Olympia Snowe or Jan Brewer.

4. The pundits are all wrong. They keep bemoaning Romney's weakness in the South and in the very demographics that he will win in November. He may be less conservative than Santorum/Gingrich, but the people that don't like him sure don't like Obama. Romney will win the South and the solid red states like Utah and Idaho. Obama will trounce Romney in the same demographics that Romney is now winning, the East and the coasts.

5. The campaign will be negative. Obama will begin trying to be positive but the GOP ads will try to tear him down. Romney's just got too many negatives to avoid tearing him down.

6. Obama will reprise his efforts to mobilize grass roots support among college students, minorities, etc. He'll also develop a massive social media presence. I expect his organization to dominate Romney's.

7. Romney's been spending all his campaign contributions trying to fend off Santorum. Obama's been stockpiling his. He will have a huge advantage in money.

All in all, I expect Obama to win as convincingly as in 2008.

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"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 7:12:31 PM   
Marini


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quote:

All in all, I expect Obama to win as convincingly as in 2008.


I predict the same exact thing!

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As always, To EACH their Own.
"And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. "
Nelson Mandela
Life-long Democrat, not happy at all with Democratic Party.
NOT a Republican/Moderate and free agent

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 7:15:33 PM   
erieangel


Posts: 2237
Joined: 6/19/2011
Status: offline 		If not as convincingly, then more so.

Obama is already mobilizing support, I've already gotten a call about volunteering for the campaign. With no primary to worry about, I can only surmise it is for the general.

Both candidates will be bloodied badly. The result will either drive supporters to the polls or keep people home in disgust on election night.

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 7:16:04 PM   
tazzygirl


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Joined: 10/12/2007
Status: offline 		Ditto!

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 7:18:14 PM   
xssve


Posts: 3589
Joined: 10/10/2009
Status: offline 		Romney will pick a VP to the right of him to compensate for his efforts to appear center to pull in swing voters - possibly a Hispanic, if he can find one the Fringe Right won't assassinate, to try and pull the Catholic vote.

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 7:31:41 PM   
xssve


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Status: offline 		The battle for the swing voters begins - the PAC's will be doing a lot of the grunt work for Romney.

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/gay-marriage-foes-sought-split-gays-blacks-16014071#.T3J3AdU2HAN

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 7:39:10 PM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: xssve

the PAC's will be doing a lot of the grunt work for Romney.



I forgot to mention that in my original post - another reason that the campaign will be negative is that PACs can say nasty stuff and it does not have to be endorsed by the candidates.

_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 8:37:23 PM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
Status: offline 		The PACs will pour untold billions into this election. Maybe it will finally kill off TV.

The real question is what happens in the House and Senate. Will the freshman teas keep their seats, and will the many Bush Democrats keep theirs? A re-elected Obama could be facing a Republican Congress...or a barely elected Romney could find himself facing a narrowly divided one.

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 8:55:29 PM   
subrob1967


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Status: offline 		FR

If gas remains over $4.00 a gallon, and unemployment stays above 8% Romney will trounce Obama, no matter who his VP selection is.

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 9:20:20 PM   
tweakabelle


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From: Sydney Australia
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quote:

The real question is what happens in the House and Senate. Will the freshman teas keep their seats, and will the many Bush Democrats keep theirs?


Most people seem to expect Obama to retain his job. What happens in Congress will greatly influence events for the next 4 years. The tea party ppl, after disgracing themselves during the debt ceiling farce, seem to gone off the radar. Will the voters finish them off and consign these idiots to the trash can forever?

What are the chances of Obama getting a sympathetic Congress to fulfil his mandate? Is a swing of the proportions necessary for the Ds to regain control of the House possible? Is it likely?

< Message edited by tweakabelle -- 3/27/2012 9:21:37 PM >

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/27/2012 9:22:00 PM   
slvemike4u


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From: United States
Status: offline 		Sure he will....lol
Obama will be re-elected that's a given,the makeup of the House is the issue in doubt

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 12:13:35 AM   
MrRodgers


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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

FR

If gas remains over $4.00 a gallon, and unemployment stays above 8% Romney will trounce Obama, no matter who his VP selection is.

Wrong because gas will be higher as the oil manipulators are exporting it almost as fast as we the victims...are burning it and the people know it.

The unemployment numbers are almost the same as was Reagan's first term and as written, it was so bad even Reagan himself considered not running for a second term.

People still refuse to inform themselves with the perspective of history. The demos haven't changed that much and repubs still have a very hard time even getting 50% of the for pres.

Even Bush has been called our first presidential appointee when in Gore v Bush the courts embarrassed themselves and unabashedly so...with the ridiculous 'irreparable harm" ruse.

The repubs struggle to win any pres, election unless they get the dems to switch as Reagan did.

The numbers tell us that if Nadar hadn't run, we'd never would have had W and had 8 years of Gore instead. Imagine that.

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 1:11:32 AM   
GrandPoobah


Posts: 120
Joined: 11/20/2008
Status: offline 		In short: Obama wins re-election, the GOP maintains at least 41 seats in the Senate and blocks almost everything coming through, and the House is so divided that it can hardly function. McConnell restates his position, modifying the words to say "the most important thing in the next four years is to make certain that nothing good gets done so we can get the Democrats out of the White House. The Republicans get on board with that mentality, and the 2014 Congressional elections are a true bloodbath...with the Dems taking both chambers by working margins. Oh...and if the SCOTUS kills the health care mandate, the insurance companies will be actively lobbying to get rid of the "pre-existing condition clause" and that will lead to a compromise. Yes, you can get rid of it, but...everyone will be eligible for Medicare and we'll make it optional for employers to buy that...as a tax (which the gov does have the authority to do already). It will force the end of the for-profit medical insurance business and convert the country to a single-payer system with controlled costs and no "for profit" inflation!

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 1:31:49 AM   
RottenJohnny


Posts: 1677
Joined: 5/5/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

5. The campaign will be negative.



Have they ever been anything else?

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 3:50:34 AM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967

If gas remains over $4.00 a gallon, and unemployment stays above 8% Romney will trounce Obama, no matter who his VP selection is.


If this was the case, then the voters would have a Hobson's choice: vote for the party that got us into the mess, or the one that couldn't fix it? I'd predict the result being a low turnout, which will favor the incumbents.

_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 4:11:05 AM   
Musicmystery


Posts: 30259
Joined: 3/14/2005
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quote:

the GOP maintains at least 41 seats in the Senate and


The GOP has an excellent chance of winning the Senate and keeping the House.

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 8:26:56 AM   
LaTigresse


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Joined: 1/15/2006
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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u

Sure he will....lol
Obama will be re-elected that's a given,the makeup of the House is the issue in doubt


As usual, Mike and I agree.

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Just because you are well educated, articulate, and can use big, fancy words, properly........does not mean you are right!

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 9:11:54 AM   
servantforuse


Posts: 6363
Joined: 3/8/2006
Status: offline 		I think that Obama is in trouble. High gas prices for the summer (if they stay high) will do him in. I also do not believe that minorities and younger voters will once again come out to vote like they did 4 years ago. Hope and change didn't seem to work out well for those voter groups.

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 9:33:52 AM   
Arturas


Posts: 3245
Status: offline 		With Obama's primary accomplishment proven to be un-Constitutional he is left with an unearned Nobel Peace Prize and the only accomplishment that stands is the repeal of the "don't ask, don't tell". Other than that, there is nothing. On the negative side, lots of partying, taking credit for oil drilling activity on Federal land previously approved during the Bush Presidency, stopping the Canadian oil pipeline project, halting additional drilling permits, not taking credit for the Solendra fiasco when we all know the "buck stops here" when you are President, submitting a budget to Congress that the Democratic Senate refused to take up because they were scared they would lose their jobs if they voted approval in the senate.

Yeah, what's not to like? It was a great presidency. This is a slam dunk for Obama. The more I read that the more I believe it.



< Message edited by Arturas -- 3/28/2012 9:34:36 AM >

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RE: My 2012 predictions - 3/28/2012 9:37:00 AM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Arturas

With Obama's primary accomplishment proven to be un-Constitutional he is left with an unearned Nobel Peace Prize and the only accomplishment that stands is the repeal of the "don't ask, don't tell". Other than that, there is nothing.



Um. Killing OBL, giving the economy some feeble signs of life, ending the war in Iraq like he promised, inroads against the Somali pirates, negotiation of the tricky Arab Spring, thawing in the relationship with North Korea. Unfortunately for him, most of his accomplishments are in foreign relations, which doesn't mean a lot back home.

_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

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