Dueling polls. (Full Version)

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DarkSteven -> Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:13:41 AM)

CNN states that Obama has a 9 point edge over Romney.

The Gallup poll gives Romney a two point edge.

Weird.



Hillwilliam -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:23:03 AM)

I have a feeling that if you add the "margin of error" to both polls, you'll find some overlap.



subrob1967 -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 9:39:33 AM)

Gallup's sampling is twice as large as CNN's.



Owner59 -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 9:47:18 AM)

That should give you some comfort then.................[sm=rofl.gif]



SoftBonds -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 10:03:31 AM)

This is fairly common, and both 538 (left wing site) and RealClearPolitics (right wing site) use poll averages for this reason. Look at those averages if you want good info.
Or as Nate at 538 points out, look at the president's approval rating, since the independents who will decide the election are too busy with their lives and jobs to know who Romney is yet.

(note, most of the "independents," on this site who will comment are already decided, I know this. However, the current undecided folks are the ones who will decide our next president. One man, one vote means the clueless get the final decision)

Edit to add: Sorry if my last comment seems harsh, I totally understand that most citizens have real lives and interests other than politics. What I am trying to point out is that we get the leaders we "pay," for, and what we pay is time and effort. If someone doesn't pay time and effort to learn their options, they get the leaders they deserve-and unfortunately so do the rest of us.



DesideriScuri -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 11:55:54 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
CNN states that Obama has a 9 point edge over Romney.
The Gallup poll gives Romney a two point edge.
Weird.


Both polls, regardless of sample size, polled "registered voters." This sampling does not give the most accurate data. It is more accurate than "eligible voters," but not as accurate as "likely voters."

Both of these polls are, essentially, worthless.



DarkSteven -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 12:02:41 PM)

I agree with you, DesideriScuri, but as a stat guy myself, it is easy to define and defend a list of voters. Defending the concept of "likely" would be asking for arguments. Plus, the relationship between registered and likely will hinge on GOTV efforts by each party.



DesideriScuri -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:19:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
I agree with you, DesideriScuri, but as a stat guy myself, it is easy to define and defend a list of voters. Defending the concept of "likely" would be asking for arguments. Plus, the relationship between registered and likely will hinge on GOTV efforts by each party.


Very true, but when you have turnouts like we do, it's pretty much a crapshoot as to whether or not the results are accurate.

http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0781453.html

Look at the voter turnout rates. These rates are voters as a percentage of all eligible voters, not even registered voters.

When you change the divisor to the total of registered voters, the highest voter turnouts were in 1976 and 1992 where we had 78% of registered voters actually voting. 78%. that means that if you take 22% of the supporters away from both candidates, they are even closer together.

Can we also add that it's still only April? lol Lots of stuff is going to change between now and November. McCain was doing well against Obama in the polls up until a few weeks before the election. The precipitous fall of the economy in October '08 killed McCain's campaign because he was seen (not supporting or refuting the claims) as being an economic moron. Thus, Obama got a surge and McCain plummeted. Romney and Obama could be neck-and-neck going into October and by the first Tuesday of November, one could be blowing the other out.



servantforuse -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:27:29 PM)

It's way to early to have any sense of these polls. End of September, they count..



Hillwilliam -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:30:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

It's way to early to have any sense of these polls. End of September, they count..

True Dat.

I think they'll also maybe be more pertinent after Mitt makes his selection for Veep.
The right selection might make him, the wrong one WILL break him.



servantforuse -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:34:49 PM)

I agree with Hill on this one. There are exceptions though. I thought Obama was a dunner when he picked an idiot like Biden as his VP. It was his time in history regardless.



slvemike4u -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:40:56 PM)

Wait a minute servant,the last Presidential election it was Obama's choice for veep that gave you pause ?




Really [8|]


Thats what your going with......lol



servantforuse -> RE: Dueling polls. (4/17/2012 7:44:11 PM)

I do not like Obama. I thought asking Biden to be a VP was a big mistake. I was wrong. The half black nominee won anyway.



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