Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (Full Version)

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TheHeretic -> Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 6:26:52 PM)

An interesting read is to be found over at The Smirking Chimp.

Let's start with a question for those who don't bother with links. Is it racist that the website didn't change names when they started criticizing President Obama?

For those who do read, is the jobs report the writing on the wall?

www.smirkingchimp.com/the-short-and-uninspiring-one-term-career-of-barack-obama




LookieNoNookie -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 6:36:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

An interesting read is to be found over at The Smirking Chimp.

Let's start with a question for those who don't bother with links. Is it racist that the website didn't change names when they started criticizing President Obama?

For those who do read, is the jobs report the writing on the wall?

www.smirkingchimp.com/the-short-and-uninspiring-one-term-career-of-barack-obama


It's only racist if a white person did it.




DarkSteven -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 7:29:30 PM)

Well, it's obviously a less than unbiased piece. But it overstates the effect a President's policy can have to improve an economy. The basic premises are that
1 .Barack Obama is solely responsible for the condition the economy is in,
2. the blip this month is permanent and cannot be changed, and
3. the economy will not recover by November.

IMO in the public mind, the blame for the economy is split between Bush, Obama, and the GOP obstructionists in Congress. I'm not going to hazard much of a guess except to say that Obama is held more liable than Bush, and I'm not sure where Congress' blame lies.
As a stat guy, I'm shocked that a one month aberration is considered to portend an irreversible trend. Responsible journalism is dead, even in hatchet jobs.




dcnovice -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 7:36:02 PM)

quote:

or those who do read, is the jobs report the writing on the wall?

Well, it certainly doesn't help.

Then again, November is still a ways off.




Owner59 -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 7:52:03 PM)

Lol!


No one`s going for the job killer vulture capitalist who`s economic plan is bush x 10......


Lol![:D]




SternSkipper -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 7:56:11 PM)

quote:

2. the blip this month is permanent and cannot be changed, and
3. the economy will not recover by November.


See ya at the Mid Atlantic Ball for more Springsteen and The Dead in January Steven




cloudboy -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 7:56:26 PM)

That article was a piece of shit; I would have been embarrassed to cite it.

Why should anyone give a shit what Mike Whitney thinks?

I suppose the real question is whether voters will be swayed by irrational crap.

Here's my two cents. If BUSH could get reelected in 2004 after botching a major war, anyone can get reelected. The standards are really low and the voters are not well informed.

All the Republicans know how to be is an opposition party. Their policies led to the deficit, endless wars, and banking crisis (poor governance) -- and they have no solutions for entitlements or exploding health care and education costs.

Romney is not a particularly strong Candidate, and the base doesn't like him. Its hard for me to see him ousting an incumbent.




Owner59 -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 8:03:24 PM)

"embarrassed to cite it."


Lol....


Not an issue for the OP.....[:D]


Lol




TheHeretic -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 8:57:03 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy

That article was a piece of shit; I would have been embarrassed to cite it.





That's because you have no sense of humor, Cloudboy. [:D]

Reagan (the EVIL one!) was reelected with high unemployment, but he did it riding a positive campaign, and promoting national optimism. President Obama doesn't so much want people asking if they are better off today, than four years ago.





TheHeretic -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/3/2012 9:02:07 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


I suppose the real question is whether voters will be swayed by irrational crap.




Yep. If the Obama campaign can pump out enough fear and loathing that sticks, irrational crap might get him another four years.

If they vote the economy, on the other hand...




Musicmystery -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 12:57:23 AM)

"The United States is in a very tough spot, economically and politically.

"The 25-year debt-fueled boom of 1982-2007 has ended, and it has left the country with a stagnant economy, massive debts, high unemployment, huge wealth inequality, an enormous budget deficit, and a sense of entitlement engendered by a half-century of prosperity.

"After decades of instant gratification, Americans have also come to believe that all problems can be solved instantly, if only the right leaders are put in charge and the right decisions are made. And so our government has devolved into a permanent election campaign, in which incumbents blame each other for the current mess, and challengers promise change.

"The trouble is that our current problems cannot be solved with a simple fix. They also cannot be solved quickly. It took 25 years for us to get to this point, and it will likely take us at least a decade or two to work our way out of it, even if we make the right decisions."

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-the-economy-2011-10#ixzz1woE2yKId

another excerpt:

THIS LEADS TO A SOLUTION THAT SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE AND LEAST RISKY AND DISRUPTIVE GIVEN THE CURRENT REALITY...

*The government should construct and pass a long-term budget plan that
-Minimizes short-term pain, while
-Getting the long-term deficit under control
*This budget plan should be designed to benefit all Americans, not just special-interest groups or different classes or industries
*This budget plan can theoretically include an increase in short-term spending designed to minimize the country's pain, as long as it also includes a decrease in long-term spending (again, right now, the world is willing to lend us as much money as we want)
*One form of government spending that unequivocally benefits all Americans is infrastructure spending (when the projects are finished, America has the infrastructure)
*Infrastructure spending would help America address another reality that has emerged in the past three decades—the reality that the infrastructure of many countries in Europe, Asia, and other regions has vaulted past that in the US and made the US look like a second-world country
*Infrastructure spending would boost employment in one sector of the economy hammered by the recession—construction
*Infrastructure spending would involve fewer of the conflicts and misaligned incentives that infuriate many Americans about "entitlement programs," extended unemployment benefits, welfare, food stamps, and other government expenditures that seem to encourage sloth and laziness and "socialism"
*The 10-year government budget designed to get us out of our current predicament, therefore, should probably include a massive, multi-year infrastructure spending program.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-the-economy-2011-10#ixzz1woETCpeu

The middle of the article is worth reading.




servantforuse -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 6:19:00 AM)

In 2008, college students supported Obama in huge numbers. 4 years later and unable to find work with their degrees I don't see them doing the same this time around.




tazzygirl -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 8:33:11 AM)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

18-29 year old approval rating... 55%




DesideriScuri -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 8:55:56 AM)

Unemployment can be such an abused statistic. It's sick what happens when people don't pay attention.

I expect unemployment to dip under 8% by October, or as the "October Surprise" as an attempt to bolster the President's chances. Since the reported statistic only "counts" unemployment benefits receivers, everyone who has used up their allotment and are no longer eligible for benefits aren't counted in the statistic used for public reporting. One of these days I'm going to have to try to gather all the unemployment numbers and chart them from 1970 to the most recent. That might be eye-opening.




Fellow -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 11:33:55 AM)

quote:

One of these days I'm going to have to try to gather all the unemployment numbers and chart them from 1970 to the most recent. That might be eye-opening.

It has been done, easy to find on the net. There is statistics guru John Williams who has done good job using different methods of the unemployment statistics:
http://www.shadowstats.com/





Fellow -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 11:54:29 AM)

I do not really buy Krugman et al. idea of massive stimulus the authors seem to admire. After all, the stimulus that has been directly and covertly used already is actually more than 1.8 trillion. So,  there is a proof it does not work. "Giving blood transfusion to the corpse" as some put it. Money should be spent on structural reforms that have potential lead to stable growing economy. Recessions last as long as the governments let them to last.
The trade deficit and debt are growing at accelerating rates under Obama. The trend must be reversed or we will face inevitable crash. To think the country's elites do not know it would be naive. Police state fast buildup is the sign they are well aware what is happening, but they can not act as the interests (what is good for the country and what is good for a selected group) collide.




Fellow -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 12:03:42 PM)

Here is a good analysis of unemployment since 1950-s:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/01/fundamental-and-mathematical-case-for.html




LookieNoNookie -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 4:47:09 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven

Well, it's obviously a less than unbiased piece. But it overstates the effect a President's policy can have to improve an economy. The basic premises are that
1 .Barack Obama is solely responsible for the condition the economy is in,
2. the blip this month is permanent and cannot be changed, and
3. the economy will not recover by November.

IMO in the public mind, the blame for the economy is split between Bush, Obama, and the GOP obstructionists in Congress. I'm not going to hazard much of a guess except to say that Obama is held more liable than Bush, and I'm not sure where Congress' blame lies.
As a stat guy, I'm shocked that a one month aberration is considered to portend an irreversible trend. Responsible journalism is dead, even in hatchet jobs.


quote:

....the blame for the economy is split between Bush, Obama, and the GOP obstructionists in Congress


Ayepper!




LookieNoNookie -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 4:50:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

quote:

One of these days I'm going to have to try to gather all the unemployment numbers and chart them from 1970 to the most recent. That might be eye-opening.

It has been done, easy to find on the net. There is statistics guru John Williams who has done good job using different methods of the unemployment statistics:
http://www.shadowstats.com/





Yepppper.....this is the shit for a site with the truth.




LookieNoNookie -> RE: Is the Jobs Report "game over" for a second term? (6/4/2012 4:54:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Fellow

Here is a good analysis of unemployment since 1950-s:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/01/fundamental-and-mathematical-case-for.html



Well put!

(Good find!)




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