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Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 12:21:30 PM

JohnWarren

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I've just finished Charlie Wilson's War by the late George Crile. The book is about how Congressman Wilson, almost single handed, forced the CIA into supporting the Afghan mujahideen. The author, as did I previously, sees this expansion as a good thing.

Initally, all the CIA was doing was supplying the Afghans with WWI rifles and ammo at a cost of a few million a year. Wilson increased that to billions and some of the most modern weapons available including Stinger hand-held missiles. All though this he was opposed by the Ivy League patricians running the Agency.

Undoubtedly, this led to a serious defeat for the Soviet forces, but it set me thinking... might we have been a lot better off if we had maintained the original low level support. As the book makes clear, the Afghans had no problem with making suicidal attacks in the face of impossible odds. The increased supplies made them more effective but not really any more aggressive.

By keeping the support limited, we would still have an embarrassment for the Soviets and they would eventually pretty much wipe out the mujahideen. Instead of showing them that "with Allah's support we can defeat superpowers" they would have learned that taking on a superpower leads the genocide. Something that might have created a bit of restraint among even the most fanatic leaders.

Limited support leading to ruination isn't a new idea. The Soviets practiced it in Poland near the end of WWII when the sat back and watched the Nazis get a bloody nose from the Polish underground and then wipe them out. Modern historians largely see the Tet Offensive as an effort by the NVA to both embarrass the US while ridding the South of elements which might have been destablizing to their post-war conquest plans.

I hate to think that the martini-swilling aristos of Langley might actually have been right, but after reading this book (which has exactly the opposite premise) and thinking about it for a while has led me to believe they might actually might have been.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 12:24:02 PM

pinkee

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But John, our strategy was so short-sighted. Did the CIA never investigate the Taliban?

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 12:43:28 PM

JohnWarren

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pinkee

But John, our strategy was so short-sighted. Did the CIA never investigate the Taliban?

pinkee

Which strategy? The wanting to "win" or the one that was maintaining the status quo?

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 1:00:55 PM

pinkee

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quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnWarren

quote:

ORIGINAL: pinkee

But John, our strategy was so short-sighted. Did the CIA never investigate the Taliban?

pinkee

Which strategy? The wanting to "win" or the one that was maintaining the status quo?

i'm not a Middle East historian. Eluciadate something for me...it was my impression the Taliban came into full flower after the defeat of the Soviets.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 1:14:15 PM

JohnWarren

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pinkee

quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnWarren

quote:

ORIGINAL: pinkee

But John, our strategy was so short-sighted. Did the CIA never investigate the Taliban?

Which strategy? The wanting to "win" or the one that was maintaining the status quo?

i'm not a Middle East historian. Eluciadate something for me...it was my impression the Taliban came into full flower after the defeat of the Soviets.

Yes, but that's not the time period covered by the book.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 1:42:59 PM

pinkee

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IYO, was the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden a greater threat to U.S. Security than the Soviets?

Still seems to me the CIA fell down on the job.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 1:50:49 PM

mnottertail

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You know Machiavelli (who wasn't such a bad sort) set forth a doctrine somewhat on this order, keep them supplied at the low level, since to empower any faction would eventually make them a formidable enemy.........

As it happens, the Soviets were quite clay-footed at the time.......so they may not have (just as we never will) wipe out the mujhadeen.

I doubt however that Langley actually did not desire modernization for the very reason you seem to attribute to them. One scarcely dares attribute intelligence to the intelligence agencies as you well know. I think you are still safe, John.

LOL,
Ron

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 2:15:40 PM

JohnWarren

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quote:

ORIGINAL: pinkee

IYO, was the Taliban and Osama Bin Laden a greater threat to U.S. Security than the Soviets?

Still seems to me the CIA fell down on the job.

pinkee

My personal feeling is that Islamic extremists are no threat at all to the United States. They are a threat to our citizens. This calls for police rather than military action. Seriously, it's hard to compare a group of thugs to a military superpower with 12,000 nukes aimed down our throats. The Islamic extremists can hurt us, they can kill citizens, they can destroy property, but they can't erase us the way the Soviets and, before them, the Nazis.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 2:17:40 PM

JohnWarren

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quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
I doubt however that Langley actually did not desire modernization for the very reason you seem to attribute to them. One scarcely dares attribute intelligence to the intelligence agencies as you well know. I think you are still safe, John.

True, even a broken clock is right twice a day. I guess it may have been just their time. The pity is that Charlie arrived and upset the applecart the one time they actually were doing the right thing.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 4:08:15 PM

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All this is a good example of the ripples of one's actions. You never truly know which way it'll go, or what it'll do down the road. Afghanistan will be what most remember about Charlie Wilson as time goes by, but I believe he's a decent guy that helped many of his constituents, my dad included.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/8/2006 7:18:12 PM

ArtCatDom

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Level

All this is a good example of the ripples of one's actions. You never truly know which way it'll go, or what it'll do down the road. Afghanistan will be what most remember about Charlie Wilson as time goes by, but I believe he's a decent guy that helped many of his constituents, my dad included.

That's the way of history and human nature. Most people don't always remember the guy that was always nice to them and even bought them drinks at the bar. They always remember when he got too drunk, became belligerant and kicked their ass. It may be unfortunate that one or a few "bad" actions stick better in memory for most, but it is the way of things.

Just a thought.

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RE: Unintended consequences - 6/9/2006 5:19:57 AM

Kedikat

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This whole concept, of other powers manipulating others to their own ends is a major cause of extremists. Playing this game always leads to unforseen results. Especially when it is played on the high level of superpower desires with thirdworld pawns. The concepts between the two levels are so alien, that the final outcome is seldom predictable. The major aims of the higher level powers may be somewhat satisfied, but what happens afterwards with their " tools " is termed blowback. Explosive and unpredictable. A country can send their army into another country, but sometimes every single person in that invaded country becomes a warrior. If you are not prepared to do the same, you eventually lose. If you actually do the same, you lose, as your country becomes only a military machine.

Afghanistan is a great example of much ado about nothing. I suspect Soviet intervention was similar to US intervention, strategic military and energy concerns. The Soviets faced what many faced through history in Afghanistan. Tough terrain, tough people. After much money, death and subterfuge, the US won the problem of Afghanistan. Wisely, they left a lot of it to a coalition of the mired and unwisely moved onto Iraq, for similar reasons as going into Afghanistan. A long sought after secure pipeline across Afghan territory is still a pipedream, but at least the democratic wests pipedream. And encirclement of a hornets nest on the oil reserves procedes. At great cost for who knows how long.

The pawns are many. A good chess player knows their power in the right circumstance. But in the real world, they can move any way they want, and have even fewer rules than those that try and use them..

< Message edited by Kedikat -- 6/9/2006 5:23:58 AM >

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