anthrosub
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Joined: 6/2/2004
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quote:
ORIGINAL: SternSkipper
Al Bartlett has been doing this same lecture for over 30 years... It's upgraded a bit since I heard him as a guest lecturer in 81.
Okay ... so IF he is right in the first place ... which assumes there will be no fluctuation in the rate.
If you're conerned book a gall bladder removal ASAP 
I watched the video twice with a couple days in-between to give myself an opportunity to let the impact of the first viewing wear off. I will say I did wonder how he was able to keep talking so easily. If he's been doing this lecture for so long that would explain it.
As to the content, he's really just taking basic information and running it out to the extremes to demonstrate how crazy some of the things various people have said...mainly on the topic of fossil fuel reserves and consumption. He shows a variety of consumption and growth rates to show how it changes the timeline. I don't see anything in the video where he is stating their will be no flucuation in rate (which is why he shows a set of rates incrementally). I think it was very important for him to point out how some of the official statements made in the past are based on the consumption rate existing at the time of the statement not changing in order for the statement to be true.
I thought he did a good job pointing out the "human dilemma" which I have thought about many times over the years. He is not making any predictions which I hope nobody who has watched the video is thinking. We live in a finite, closed system...Earth...and though it may be huge it still has its limits.
One thing I learned from watching is that all growth is exponential over time (how can it not be?). And no matter how you cut it, there is no such thing as sustainable growth.
On over-population, I think this is a topic that requires a definition of just what is meant by the term. For example, I consider over-population to be the point at which the quality of life is impacted in a negative way. I know from my anthropology training that many ancient civilizations of the past collapsed because they exceeded the regions carrying capacity where they existed. They over-extended themselves and/or the climate and resource availability changed without them adjusting to it. Each of them did this in a way that was unique to their location. The analogy of bacteria in a bottle demonstrates how easy it is to go past the point of no return before realizing things have become irreversible. So now we have to ask, what if we exceed the carrying capacity of the planet? How and when would we know? Do we learn from the mistakes made in the past? Are we powerless to do anything about this?
I found a website titled, "overpopulationisamyth.com". On this website they say to relax...there will never be over-population but all they talk about is population growth. They do not talk about the impact growth of population has on environment, resources, or the simple things in life that we slowly lose over time due to the population growing. It's all symbiotic. You have to consider all the factors.
Anyway, I think the information is relevant and important. It's clearly not quackery. I hope a lot of people are exposed to it as its stirs your sense of reality a bit.
_____________________________
"It is easier to fool people than it is to convince them they have been fooled." - Mark Twain
"I am not young enough to know everything." - Oscar Wilde
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