RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (Full Version)

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tazzygirl -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 2:04:39 PM)

quote:

Since Bush is responsible for his term, shouldn't you hold Obama to the same standards?


Gotta love this.

Dont hold Bush responsible because he didnt do it.. Democratic held Congress did... according to conservatives.

But lets hold Obama responsible for the mess he inherited.

Hypocritical much?



mnottertail -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 2:07:48 PM)

Has any republican held office under which the debt increased a great deal since Eisenhower?

Yes, every one, moreso than Democratic Presidents (and that includes Nixon who took the USPS off book) so he didnt reduce shit.  It just appeared that way on paper.

So, we come to the question of after these presidents of 'fiscal conservatism' have failed fiscally in every case, and Willard of the Magic Underpants has stated in no uncertain terms that he wants to continue those policies with enhanced execution, how are we looking at something that's a good deal here.

Cuz I don't know thats got much to to with the university of colorado's database analysis methods.   



DarkSteven -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 2:26:24 PM)

The predictive mechanism is ridiculous. It simply measures Obama's strength as a function of the overall US economy. It doesn't take into account Romney's lack of popularity, nor does it account for the fact that some voters, myself included, consider the GOP more responsible for the lousy economy than Obama. Here are a few quotes from the Denver Post's article that show how bad the model is:

"The analysis asserts Romney will win every one of 13 swing states except Nevada, New Mexico and Michigan."

Nobody believes that will be the case. Every analysis and poll I've read gives Obama more than just three.


"The researchers also assert that their economic-based model, which they developed after the 2008 election, would have correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1980."

Translation: the model breaks down with data before 1980. Note that the input data is easily obtainable for data reaching before the 1960s, so that's a lot of data that doesn't work. Also, note that the model predicts ONLY win/lose and not the margins. If it could predict margins. I'd have a lot more faith in it. I could throw together a crude curve fit that would be about as accurate.

"According to the analysis, which Bickers said the pair would update in September when new economic data arrives, Obama will only garner 218 electoral votes, well less than the 270 needed to win."

Again, this is far worse for Obama than every poll done to date. It's not credible.




DomKen -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 4:55:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967
Yeah, they haven't correctly predicted the last 30 years of elections based on subjective determination[8|]

That's right. They have not correctly predicted the last 30 years of elections. This is a brand new model.



mnottertail -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 4:58:06 PM)

Just like Rassmussen though their hindsight is gonna be 20/20.




mnottertail -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 5:08:55 PM)

We have a name for that regression bias in statistics.  several in fact.



Restyles -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 8:11:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967
Yeah, they haven't correctly predicted the last 30 years of elections based on subjective determination[8|]

That's right. They have not correctly predicted the last 30 years of elections. This is a brand new model.



Sounds like climate change models.



subrob1967 -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 10:23:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

quote:

Since Bush is responsible for his term, shouldn't you hold Obama to the same standards?


Gotta love this.

Dont hold Bush responsible because he didnt do it.. Democratic held Congress did... according to conservatives.

But lets hold Obama responsible for the mess he inherited.

Hypocritical much?


Nice try... Now the rest of what I said.

quote:

Congress writes the checks, that's the problem with progressives, your blind to the decisions made by democrats like Frank & Dodd... So let us talk about party lines...

Bush's economy wasn't that bad until the Dem's took the majority in 07, yeah Bush was a spendaholic, but the spending tripled as soon as the D's took control of Congress.

I admit Bush sucked, and he fought the wrong type of war... I've been saying that since 2004... Where are YOUR posts lambasting any progressives? I've yet to see it in any of your posts.

We'll see in November if America is still buying the snake oil Obama's been peddling.


Now, you were saying?



Charles6682 -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/23/2012 10:31:24 PM)

I remember the look on Conservatives faces the day after Obama won election 4 years ago,it was priceless.I loved seeing those upset looking faces.I can't wait to see those same faces again this year when Obama wins for another 4 years!!



tazzygirl -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 12:00:08 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

quote:

Since Bush is responsible for his term, shouldn't you hold Obama to the same standards?


Gotta love this.

Dont hold Bush responsible because he didnt do it.. Democratic held Congress did... according to conservatives.

But lets hold Obama responsible for the mess he inherited.

Hypocritical much?


Nice try... Now the rest of what I said.

quote:

Congress writes the checks, that's the problem with progressives, your blind to the decisions made by democrats like Frank & Dodd... So let us talk about party lines...

Bush's economy wasn't that bad until the Dem's took the majority in 07, yeah Bush was a spendaholic, but the spending tripled as soon as the D's took control of Congress.

I admit Bush sucked, and he fought the wrong type of war... I've been saying that since 2004... Where are YOUR posts lambasting any progressives? I've yet to see it in any of your posts.

We'll see in November if America is still buying the snake oil Obama's been peddling.


Now, you were saying?



I still say the same thing.

And you need glasses then. I have stated emphatically that Obama didnt have as much of a spine as I would like, I have argued against some of his policies... and I was even the first that said Weiner needed to go.

http://www.collarchat.com/fb.asp?m=3457023

http://www.collarchat.com/fb.asp?m=3703380



Do try search next time before you come up with more lies about my posting history.



crazyml -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 12:26:06 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967


Has Bush held any office since 2008?



I think the context is important here - one of the Con posters made a comment about the last 30 years, so it was simply an interesting exercise in establishing whether the comment made sense or not.

Surprisingly, it looks like the comment was really silly.

quote:



Since Bush is responsible for his term, shouldn't you hold Obama to the same standards?

Yes, you should. Indeed, this whole "holding to the same standards" thing is fascinating to me, especially on this part of the boards. I am sure you're an exception - but the reason the quality of debate in P&R is so shockingly dreadful is that so many of the posters are so polarised in their views that they find it impossible to hold "their people" to the same standards they apply to "t'other people".

So yes, you should hold Obama to the same standards as Bush, but in every case you should consider the broader economic climate... So just as it's stupid for Dems to claim that all of the US growth during Clinton's terms was down to Mr Twinkle socks himself (pretty much the whole world went through a huge growth in GDP over that time), it's also stupid to beat Obama up given the fact that nearly every western economy is in the toilet. And yes... you need to examine the economic policies of the Bush presidents more closely, and ask what factors were at play that might have influenced the economy one way or another.


quote:


Ever hear about an eyeborow trimmer?



Yes, thanks.



subrob1967 -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 9:41:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I still say the same thing.

And you need glasses then. I have stated emphatically that Obama didnt have as much of a spine as I would like, I have argued against some of his policies... and I was even the first that said Weiner needed to go.

http://www.collarchat.com/fb.asp?m=3457023

http://www.collarchat.com/fb.asp?m=3703380

Do try search next time before you come up with more lies about my posting history.


Where did I call you a hypocrite? You brought up hypocrisy, not me.



servantforuse -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 9:49:19 AM)

Charles, I wouldn't gloat to much if I were you. This is a very close election. You might see that upset face while looking in your mirror.



tazzygirl -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 11:55:43 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: subrob1967


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

I still say the same thing.

And you need glasses then. I have stated emphatically that Obama didnt have as much of a spine as I would like, I have argued against some of his policies... and I was even the first that said Weiner needed to go.

http://www.collarchat.com/fb.asp?m=3457023

http://www.collarchat.com/fb.asp?m=3703380

Do try search next time before you come up with more lies about my posting history.


Where did I call you a hypocrite? You brought up hypocrisy, not me.



And I still do. I never said you called me that. Oh, wait, did you NOT tell me to look at what else you said? Ah, yes you did.. and the above comments were contained in what else you said section.



subrob1967 -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 12:14:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tazzygirl


And I still do. I never said you called me that. Oh, wait, did you NOT tell me to look at what else you said? Ah, yes you did.. and the above comments were contained in what else you said section.


How does you pointing out what YOU said about Obama and Weiner make ME a hypocrite? Especially when I never said you were a hypocrite.

I asked a question about holding Obama to the same standards as Bush, so if you are holding Obama to the same standards, why did you respond at all? And why do you think Obama inherited Bush's mess? Didn't he spend millions of dollars to win the office? Didn't he campaign on his ability to correct the mess Bush created all by his lonesome? Didn't candidate Obama say himself that if the economy hasn't improved in three years he should be voted out of office?

Are you gonna try the joeother Chewbacca defense for Obama and say that Obama really thought the republicans would just roll over and accept all of Obama's plans?

Are you really saying the last three years really aren't Obama's fault, it's Boehner's fault?



Charles6682 -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 12:23:07 PM)

It might be a close race but I have a feeling Obama wins with a big grin on his face and I will have a nice grin on mine.The sad looks on the Conservatives will be priceless for yet another 4 years.



servantforuse -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 1:19:45 PM)

I will remember this conversation Charles. If you want an interesting read, check out DickMorris.com. You might rethink your grin.



Hillwilliam -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 1:29:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: servantforuse

I will remember this conversation Charles. If you want an interesting read, check out DickMorris.com. You might rethink your grin.

Nice site servant. Kinda schizophrenic tho. Let me share the first 2 things on page 1.

"Akin Must Pull Out!

By Dick Morris on August 21, 2012

Click Here To Sign The Petition To Get Todd Akin To Pull Out!

The Republican Party threw away a Senate seat in Delaware in 2010 when it nominated Christine O’Donnell for the Senate. Her comments about witchcraft made her unelectable."

Right under it, it says:

"Join Mike Huckabee in defense of Todd Akin by chipping-in $3 to Akin's campaign"

You cant make this shit up.[8D]



Charles6682 -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 1:57:35 PM)

Dick Morris?!Really?I see that clown on Fixed News.I would rather watch Zack Morris from Saved by the Bell before I listen to this guy.After all,he is a Dick.



servantforuse -> RE: Obama loses in November according to CU (8/24/2012 2:00:03 PM)

He was the same clown that helped  Bill Clinton get elected to a 2nd term.



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