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Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/15/2012 5:28:35 PM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline 		Their latest tally shows Obama with over 270 votes.

I'm at a loss. The only way is if the undecideds went for Obama in a big way. I figured the elections would do nothing but cement GOP and Dem votes for their candidates. But if TPM is correct, Romney's losing big.

_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."
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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/15/2012 6:45:58 PM   
DaNewAgeViking


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Status: offline 		Well, 270ToWin gives Obama a 201 to 191 edge over Romney, and their odds are back up to 92% to 7%.

http://www.270towin.com/

And Real Clear Politics gives him 237 to Romney's 191, including Pennsylvania.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Either way looks hopeful.

(in reply to DarkSteven)
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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/15/2012 7:07:09 PM   
slvemike4u


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Status: offline 		And the winner,and still President......

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/15/2012 7:14:32 PM   
DaNewAgeViking


Posts: 1009
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Status: offline 		And too, according to 270ToWin, there are 146 undecided votes. If Obama takes half of that - the statistical average of left vs right - he'll get 73, giving him 274.

My question is how will the situation in the Middle East affect the tally? My guess is that since that was stirred up by some Radical hate-monger, and Obama has been cool and firm about it, there will be a small Obama bounce.

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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/15/2012 11:25:43 PM   
TheHeretic


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Joined: 3/25/2007
From: California, USA
Status: offline 		Well, that will be good news for all the Obama fans, won't it? A liberal blog has declared the election won, 52 days in advance. They can just stay home now.


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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/15/2012 11:36:03 PM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DaNewAgeViking

And Real Clear Politics gives him 237 to Romney's 191, including Pennsylvania.



Yeah, that's what CNN has been showing for over a month.

I'm just not certain what's happening in the TPM polls. It's looking like undecideds are rejecting Romney, when I expected them to split 50-50. I haven't seen any event that would cause a decisive result unless Ryan's selection is backfiring. Typically, VPs don't affect the viability of the ticket that much. I'm looking for a reason that Romney's allegedly slipping, and I don't see one.


_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

(in reply to DaNewAgeViking)
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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/15/2012 11:52:19 PM   
subspaceseven


Posts: 467
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Status: offline 		Its a long way off...all this reminds me of is "Dewey Wins" Gee that was the day after the election and they still got it wrong

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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/16/2012 12:45:03 AM   
DaNewAgeViking


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
Typically, VPs don't affect the viability of the ticket that much. I'm looking for a reason that Romney's allegedly slipping, and I don't see one.


It may well be that Ryan outshines the lackluster Romney? Or perhaps Ryan is the new devil we haven't seen vs the Romney devil we know? Or maybe Ryan just scares the shinola out of people?

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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/16/2012 5:07:45 AM   
slvemike4u


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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

Well, that will be good news for all the Obama fans, won't it? A liberal blog has declared the election won, 52 days in advance. They can just stay home now.



That's a great idea Rich,I think I will skip voting this year (this will be a first for me,I have voted every election since reaching maturity).
Why bother,it is in the bag so I'll sleep late that day.


Now if only there were some way I could vote early.........

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to TheHeretic)
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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/16/2012 8:32:36 PM   
graceadieu


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven


quote:

ORIGINAL: DaNewAgeViking

And Real Clear Politics gives him 237 to Romney's 191, including Pennsylvania.



Yeah, that's what CNN has been showing for over a month.

I'm just not certain what's happening in the TPM polls. It's looking like undecideds are rejecting Romney, when I expected them to split 50-50. I haven't seen any event that would cause a decisive result unless Ryan's selection is backfiring. Typically, VPs don't affect the viability of the ticket that much. I'm looking for a reason that Romney's allegedly slipping, and I don't see one.



I'm not sure it's so much that Romney's slipping, as that Obama's position is getting stronger. Romney didn't get any boost from the RNC, while Obama got a decent one from the DNC. I think Clinton's speech was probably a big factor in that!

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RE: Talking points memo gives it to Obama. - 9/16/2012 8:46:30 PM   
isoLadyOwner


Posts: 221
Joined: 4/22/2006
Status: offline 		Here's an analysis of how polls may get skewed:

http://www.examiner.com/article/is-the-latest-washington-post-abc-poll-skewed-for-obama

Here's what might be going on:

http://www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-holds-large-lead-unskewedpolls-com-average-of-polls

Here's unskewed polls chart:

http://unskewedpolls.com/

Believe what you want.

Obama's running ads in Northern California, maybe he's just trying to run up the vote count by winning California twice?

(in reply to graceadieu)
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