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The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 6:26:54 PM   
DarkSteven


Posts: 28072
Joined: 5/2/2008
Status: offline 		There's a very good chance Obama will be reelected. If so, the GOP is toast. Here's why:

1. The economy is IMO poised for a turnaround. Whomever is President in 2012-2016 will get credit. If that's Obama, then the GOP will be considered the party that flushed the economy down the toilet, and the Democrats the party that presided over the recovery. The GOP's sole consolation is that the recovery will be tepid.
2. The GOP is in disarray. There's the Tea Party, the Libertarians, the social conservatives, the fiscal conservatives, the Birthers, etc. The only thing currently uniting them is opposition to Obama. Obama cannot run in 2016, so they won't have much of a real theme.
3. If Clinton runs, she'll combine the memories of the last strong economy we had under her husband along with the turnaround under Obama. She'll be very hard to beat, especially if Obama shares his campaign expertise with her.
4. Mitt's running such a bad campaign, with his 47% comment and choice of Ryan, that he may be alienating the senior vote. The GOP absolutely cannot afford to lose them.

< Message edited by DarkSteven -- 9/21/2012 6:28:19 PM >

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 6:36:53 PM   
DomKen


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
4. Mitt's running such a bad campaign, with his 47% comment and choice of Ryan, that he may be alienating the senior vote. The GOP absolutely cannot afford to lose them.

CSpan has video of Ryan's speech at the AARP today. It didn't go well.

(in reply to DarkSteven)
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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 7:18:46 PM   
theshytype


Posts: 1600
Status: offline 		It seems to me that after a Dem cleans up all the messes of the prior president, voters forget the past and forget who caused the mess to begin with. Dem voters no longer feel a pressing need to vote, so we circle around all over again. IMO, the only way the DNC can secure a win in 2016 is if Clinton runs. No matter how much dysfunction the right-wing has, there will always be one poster child they'll fall in line with. Just because he's Republican.

I wouldn't be sad if you were completely right, though.

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 8:10:28 PM   
cloudboy


Posts: 7306
Joined: 12/14/2005
Status: offline 		The most interesting read I've done about the state of the GOP concerns how the party ruins itself in the primaries. The right wing nutjobs and base control the primaries and produce candidates and positions unsuitable to the general US population, which is centrist.

For a mirror image it would be like a communist faction controlling the Democratic primaries.

--------

Just to pop your balloon a little; GWB won in 2000 and 2004. It was clear to me in each instance that he was a moron. Its a party that dumbs itself down and feels proud about it (Sarah Palin, Dan Quale, Michelle Bachmann). The party really needs a leader to tell its unruly children to sit down and shut up, but that guy can never survive a primary election.



< Message edited by cloudboy -- 9/21/2012 8:15:47 PM >

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 8:27:36 PM   
DomKen


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Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
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I think that after this election the money people behind the GOP will have to take a hard look at the party and its positions. Simply put demographics are against the Republicans as now constituted. This is the last Presidential election where getting less than 30% of the black and hispanic vote will still be competitive.

So the party will have to move to the center to expand its base or be rendered irrelevant and a new right of center party will be created by the monied interests.

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 8:32:54 PM   
slvemike4u


Posts: 17896
Joined: 1/15/2008
From: United States
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quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy

The most interesting read I've done about the state of the GOP concerns how the party ruins itself in the primaries. The right wing nutjobs and base control the primaries and produce candidates and positions unsuitable to the general US population, which is centrist.

For a mirror image it would be like a communist faction controlling the Democratic primaries.

--------

Just to pop your balloon a little; GWB won in 2000 and 2004. It was clear to me in each instance that he was a moron. Its a party that dumbs itself down and feels proud about it (Sarah Palin, Dan Quale, Michelle Bachmann). The party really needs a leader to tell its unruly children to sit down and shut up, but that guy can never survive a primary election.



And what will get really really interesting is just how much further right they force the candidate in 2016.
There is a strong possibility that the take away from Mitt's loss,from the Republican pov,is that Mitt wasn't actually a conservative,not really one of us,yet like McCain who we settled for...lending even more weight to the fringe,resulting in a much more higher purity bar for the next candidate to clear

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 8:35:47 PM   
slvemike4u


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From: United States
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

FR

I think that after this election the money people behind the GOP will have to take a hard look at the party and its positions. Simply put demographics are against the Republicans as now constituted. This is the last Presidential election where getting less than 30% of the black and hispanic vote will still be competitive.

So the party will have to move to the center to expand its base or be rendered irrelevant and a new right of center party will be created by the monied interests.

The fringe,who have the party by the balls,will never allow such a move,they will dig in their heels and actually become more shrill in their approach.The last bastion of a whiter America......lol.

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to DomKen)
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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 9:03:32 PM   
Louve00


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quote:

ORIGINAL: theshytype

It seems to me that after a Dem cleans up all the messes of the prior president, voters forget the past and forget who caused the mess to begin with. Dem voters no longer feel a pressing need to vote, so we circle around all over again. IMO, the only way the DNC can secure a win in 2016 is if Clinton runs. No matter how much dysfunction the right-wing has, there will always be one poster child they'll fall in line with. Just because he's Republican.

I wouldn't be sad if you were completely right, though.



IMHO the Tea Party is what'll keep the reps from going anywhere. They're irrational in every way and they're scary. As long as they run in with the R party, the uncertainty will be there (IMO) I've a hunch those birthers will go away when Obama goes away. Time will tell on my hunch

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 9:41:33 PM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
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quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

FR

I think that after this election the money people behind the GOP will have to take a hard look at the party and its positions. Simply put demographics are against the Republicans as now constituted. This is the last Presidential election where getting less than 30% of the black and hispanic vote will still be competitive.

So the party will have to move to the center to expand its base or be rendered irrelevant and a new right of center party will be created by the monied interests.

The fringe,who have the party by the balls,will never allow such a move,they will dig in their heels and actually become more shrill in their approach.The last bastion of a whiter America......lol.

Consider this simple fact, by 2016 the hispanic citizen population in Texas, coupled with the black vote, will be the deciding factor in state wide elections. That shifts Texas out of the safe GOP column and at least into the swing state column. Without those 38 electoral votes in the GOP's pocket they are effectively irrelevant in a Preidential election, sure they can still win in Texas but it means sinking money and man power into a huge state with multiple metropolitan areas which they simply will not have without pulling resources from the present battleground states which makes winning 270 electoral votes a very difficult task.

So their choice is to become a sidelined regional party, the deep south and moutain west, or to broaden their base by moving to the center. I am confident that the money behind the GOP can see this as plainly as the rest of us and when Romney loses the bloodletting will begin in earnest.

(in reply to slvemike4u)
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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 9:52:47 PM   
slvemike4u


Posts: 17896
Joined: 1/15/2008
From: United States
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

FR

I think that after this election the money people behind the GOP will have to take a hard look at the party and its positions. Simply put demographics are against the Republicans as now constituted. This is the last Presidential election where getting less than 30% of the black and hispanic vote will still be competitive.

So the party will have to move to the center to expand its base or be rendered irrelevant and a new right of center party will be created by the monied interests.

The fringe,who have the party by the balls,will never allow such a move,they will dig in their heels and actually become more shrill in their approach.The last bastion of a whiter America......lol.

Consider this simple fact, by 2016 the hispanic citizen population in Texas, coupled with the black vote, will be the deciding factor in state wide elections. That shifts Texas out of the safe GOP column and at least into the swing state column. Without those 38 electoral votes in the GOP's pocket they are effectively irrelevant in a Preidential election, sure they can still win in Texas but it means sinking money and man power into a huge state with multiple metropolitan areas which they simply will not have without pulling resources from the present battleground states which makes winning 270 electoral votes a very difficult task.

So their choice is to become a sidelined regional party, the deep south and moutain west, or to broaden their base by moving to the center. I am confident that the money behind the GOP can see this as plainly as the rest of us and when Romney loses the bloodletting will begin in earnest.


I am not disputing your points at all Ken
I just think you are underestimating the irrationality of the fringe.
Are the tea baggers going to willingly pivot to a more inclusive party ?
I don't think so
Is the religious right going to realize that one can not run for election while fighting culture wars already lost ?
I don't think so.
And lastly I wonder just how easy it is to "pivot" the party,there are long standing beliefs held by some of these demographic groups that the Republicans would need to try to attract.
What sort of message would this new Republican party need to send to the African American community to erode such long standing enmity....... perhaps the job would be easier with the Latino community,but by necessity the Republicans would need to address their immigration stance...which loses them a large chunk of their current base
They are,IMO a party destined to wander in the wilderness where national elections are concerned for a few cycles.Rebranding themselves just might take a generation or so.

_____________________________

If we want things to stay as they are,things will have to change...Tancredi from "the Leopard"

Forget Guns-----Ban the pools

Funny stuff....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eNwFf991d-4


(in reply to DomKen)
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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 10:14:26 PM   
Kana


Posts: 6676
Joined: 10/24/2006
Status: offline 		Ya know, since Reagan, the throwaway line spoken with way too much truth at it's heart was a simple question:

Q-What's the difference between Republicans and Democrats?
A-Republicans know who they are (Conservative, Christian, business types...), Democrats know who they're not-Republicans.

Somewhere in recent years that's changed. In many ways it's even reversed. And that shift may be Obama's greatest long term contribution to his party.

Edited to add that of course the Republicans are punting this election. That's pretty obvious. They knew they had no real shot at Obama so nobody worth a squat is squandering their shot this year. Which is how you get a candidate called Mittens whose closest competition was a Newt.

< Message edited by Kana -- 9/21/2012 10:18:02 PM >

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 10:17:59 PM   
subrob1967


Posts: 4591
Joined: 9/13/2004
Status: offline 		If Romney loses the GOP needs to crawl off into the sunset and die. Even if they take control of all of Congress, they still need to fade into obscurity.

But that's not gonna happen so, hopefully Obama's brand of Democrat will disappear, and we'll finally end this pseudo socialist crap the current DNC is practicing.

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/21/2012 10:25:14 PM   
defiantbadgirl


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Status: offline 		The only way I want the Affordable Care Act repealed is if it's replaced with single-payer health care. Obama must win!

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/22/2012 12:50:47 AM   
Winterapple


Posts: 1343
Joined: 8/19/2011
Status: offline 		FR
Romney has alienated seniors with this
gaffe speech and the choice of Ryan.
Alienating seniors and Hispanics doesn't
seem very shrewd if you need Florida.

The demographics are increasingly
against the Republicans. Certain
dinosaurs are dying out, their herds
are thinning. Even in the Bible Belt
the younger conservatives don't have
the paranoia and hang ups about
gay issues and race that their seniors
do. And it's a bit of a challenge to
have a national party that alienates
Hispanics, African Americans, the young,
seniors and large numbers of women.

The Obama brand of Democrat is an
established brand and isn't going anywhere.

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/22/2012 1:46:32 AM   
Pspanker


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quote:

So the [GOP] will have to move to the center to expand its base or be rendered irrelevant and a new right of center party will be created by the monied interests.


Wishful thinking, but maybe not wrong thinking. The extreme polarization of the states has made a third party focused on the swing states much more disruptive. The monied interests need not be more monied than any one of the billionaires who intervened in this year's Republican primary.

A large chunk of the electorate does not want to vote for Democrats. Just don't! Not in 2012, not in 2016, not ever. Anyway, we need at least two parties. But, especially in the swing states, sane center-right voters might support a reality-based, small-c "conservative" alternative (e.g. John Anderson) that eschews further suicide missions for the rich, and is not offering the same five-point plan that the GOP has offered in 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. In 2016, the most viable strategy for such folks-- especially if Republicans control the House-- would be a third-party challenger with a fresh agenda on enough swing state ballots-- just seven would do it-- to make Republican victory mathematically impossible without concessions to the third candidate. If such a candidate persevered to November and won outright in a few states, s/he could then bargain with both parties for the electoral college majority. If s/he persevered for four more years to elect some actual members of the House, then by 2020 a new party may have taken hold that could both throw presidential elections to the House and decide the outcomes there. History suggests that when either party faces this sort of mortal threat, it does the math, sees the danger, and quietly makes peace with the opposition on its flank. If it can...

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/22/2012 4:29:21 AM   
Lucylastic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen


quote:

ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
4. Mitt's running such a bad campaign, with his 47% comment and choice of Ryan, that he may be alienating the senior vote. The GOP absolutely cannot afford to lose them.

CSpan has video of Ryan's speech at the AARP today. It didn't go well.

that was quite eye opening, it was a lousy speech, well his delivery and his support was lousy.
Turning 50 this year, Im really glad Im not an american looking forward to ryan and romney being in charge
THat would make the rest of my grey turn white

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/22/2012 4:49:33 AM   
mons


Posts: 2400
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: offline 		I am so very impressed by the way some of you know some of the facts!

Now sometimes some of you will hit obama when the other group loses a point this makes me laugh!

When Mitt is wrong and he is wrong so many times, it is not funny to see the GOP guy's make up stories just
to hit obama, why is this!

But even though I am impress by the GOP GROUPIES run and find something to hit a score it is like baseball before they had
let the others in!

Ok all of that said many of you come together with facts and some of you get crazy but it is so good to see!

When it does come time to see whom will win I hope no one raps theirselves IN a flag and shot their head off..
this happen when the Civil War was won by the North and oh I forgotten his name but he was as crazy as a bed bug!

Many of you do such great research and you must stay hours on the computer to know so much!!!

Ok who has a night job that let's see them and let them be counted, oh shoot my twin is mad at me she is a Mitt person , yes I am shock as well!

This action here is as American as apple pie, school luches, baseball, and S, Page oh yes he was a baseball player for the negro leagues !

Keep on keeping on folks, someone here stays up she must there is not way she could get facts like those without at least 5 nights of no sleep!

mons

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/22/2012 6:28:29 AM   
DarkSteven


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Louve00

I've a hunch those birthers will go away when Obama goes away. Time will tell on my hunch


I can't see that. They are paranoid nutcases. They will likely shut up about the birther issue, but they'll need to find some other weirdness to belong to. I wish I could see their future.

To resume my original premise, the GOP has an identity issue right now. W was a strong president who did things his way. He defined the GOP for eight years, but in a way that the GOP would prefer not to emulate. Sorta. He implemented tax cuts and invaded two countries. The GOP tries to repudiate Bush but still tries to claim that Obama is weak on foreign policy (without explicitly saying that they want to have the option to invade because everyone's wary of that) and that the economy needs more tax breaks for the wealthy (and ignoring the fact that the previous round of cuts coincided with an economic disaster).

Romney's ineptitude hasn't helped. He alienated the Ron Paul contingent somewhat and made it a little more likely that some will bolt for an Independent or Libertarian party. Similarly to how Obama's weakened relationships between the Jewish community and the Dems, he's weakened the GOP's relationship with the retired boomers.

The GOP's been so fixated on winning this election that they haven't thought of what shape their party will be in after (although in their defense, winning elections masks all sorts of problems).

_____________________________

"You women....

The small-breasted ones want larger breasts. The large-breasted ones want smaller ones. The straight-haired ones curl their hair, and the curly-haired ones straighten theirs...

Quit fretting. We men love you."

(in reply to Louve00)
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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/22/2012 6:31:43 AM   
mons


Posts: 2400
Joined: 11/16/2005
Status: offline 		What will the GOP do and where did they get Ryan from. he looks old but then he looks young!

How old is this young/old man!

When he was boo lol he came out with "I knew you would do that" then why did he say it ?

I wonder where the old GOP go to pastern and what brand of grass do they live on, what a hoot!

I know many of you look up to mitt and there is nothing wrong with your interest in him, but what in the
world did the GOP think they were doing?

Picking someone like him, they would do anything to make sure Obama would be out of the WHITE HOUSE and they
did not care whom they had pick, and what a pick wow he is as posh as you get and what does he know abouyt life???

Ok I am not one to go over every stats. but I am one of a hell of a good satirists yes it is wonderful, I do love
to read all of your post, some of the most informal talk of the day!

If some of the GOP and the Dem. could read this stuff they would be so impress and just know that they American public knows more
then they think !


MOns

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RE: The GOP should be terrified. - 9/22/2012 7:08:23 AM   
DomKen


Posts: 19457
Joined: 7/4/2004
From: Chicago, IL
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: slvemike4u
What sort of message would this new Republican party need to send to the African American community to erode such long standing enmity....... perhaps the job would be easier with the Latino community,but by necessity the Republicans would need to address their immigration stance...which loses them a large chunk of their current base
They are,IMO a party destined to wander in the wilderness where national elections are concerned for a few cycles.Rebranding themselves just might take a generation or so.

They could go in two directions, depending on which group they want to attract.
1) Cut the anti government message and tweak the social conservative message. Would attract some of the socially conservative church going black vote as well as keeping the RR.
2) Switch it around and come to the center on social stuff and emphasize a skepticism of government. Would attract some Hispanics and many white independents. The RR and the southern strategy would have to be abandoned but this would bring the party back to one of its most successful coalitions.

(in reply to slvemike4u)
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