The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls

The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (Full Version)

All Forums >> [Community Discussions] >> Dungeon of Political and Religious Discussion

Message

Owner59 -> The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 12:16:24 AM)
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81845.html "To talk with any working Republican political operative these days is to hear the same tale of woe: a grim accounting of the past few weeks, a dash of gallows humor and a measure of hope that President Obama is still beatable. Never in question is that Mitt Romney is trailing — the private surveys these strategists see for their down-ballot clients make that clear. The only question is by how much." "But hanging up the phone or clicking out of e-mail is to find a parallel universe on the right. On TV, talk radio and especially the Internet is a place where the swing-state polls that show Romney losing are not just inaccurate but part of an intentional plot by the heretofore unknown media-pollster axis to depress Republican voters. In this other world, Romney not only isn’t losing — he’s on the verge of a convincing victory" "But the Internet has let the alternate campaign reality flower this fall in a way that’s both striking and depressing to political professionals and pollsters. One website, unskewedpolls.com, even readjusts the public polling to include more Republicans in samples. The results: Romney leads in nearly every national poll released in September. Of course arbitrarily reweighting polls is wildly unscientific, but that hasn’t stopped Republicans like Limbaugh and even Texas Gov. Rick Perry from mentioning the site. “Always nice to get unfiltered, or in this case ‘unskewed,’ information,” Perry tweeted last week with a link to the page."

subrob1967 -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 2:25:00 AM)
Man I'm really looking forward to your whining November 8th, that is if you have the balls to show up here after Obama and the Dem's gets shellacked for the second election in a row.

DarkSteven -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 6:53:06 AM)
The MSM is schizo now. Half the articles claim that Obama's still got a firm lead, and the other half claim that he's losing ground and that his lead is less than the statistical uncertainty.

kalikshama -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 7:13:03 AM)
“The Pollsters Are Biased” Is the New “The Reporters Are Biased” You’re entitled to your own opinion but not to your own facts; that political dictum was coined by the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan, because he was no fun. Well, good news, folks! Now you can have your own facts! Even better, when it comes to campaign polls you don’t like, you can now have your own numbers! The concept / conspiracy theory that election polling this year is “skewed” toward oversampling Democratic voters–meaning they give falsely strong results for Obama–has, through social media and the Drudge Report, reached full-on Internet meme status. (Go on Twitter after any major poll release, search for “Obama poll” or “Romney poll” and watch your screen fill with disgruntled amateur statisticians muttering about “D +9 sampling.”) And now the polling conspiracists have their own website, UnSkewedPolls.com, which essentially takes existing polls and changes the numbers so that Mitt Romney is winning them. Read more: http://entertainment.time.com/2012/09/25/the-pollsters-are-biased-is-the-new-the-reporters-are-biased/#ixzz289QAtKD9

kalikshama -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 7:17:19 AM)
Poll Averages Have No History of Consistent Partisan Bias By NATE SILVER Presidential elections are high-stakes affairs. So perhaps it is no surprise that when supporters of one candidate do not like the message they are hearing from the polls they tend to blame the messenger. In 2004, Democratic Web sites were convinced that the polls were biased toward George W. Bush, asserting that they showed an implausible gain in the number of voters identifying as Republicans. But in fact, the polls were very near the actual result. Mr. Bush defeated John Kerry by 2.5 percentage points, close to (in fact just slightly better than) the 1- or 2-point lead that he had on average in the final polls. Exit polls that year found an equal number of voters describing themselves as Democrats and Republicans, also close to what the polls had predicted. Since President Obama gained ground in the polls after the Democrats’ convention, it has been the Republicans’ turn to make the same accusations. Some have said that the polls are “oversampling” Democrats and producing results that are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor. One Web site, unskewedpolls.com, contends that even Fox News is part of the racket in what it says is a “trend of skewed polls that oversample Democratic voters to produce results favorable for the president.” The criticisms are largely unsound, especially when couched in terms like “oversampling,” which implies that pollsters are deliberately rigging their samples. But pollsters, at least if they are following the industry’s standard guidelines, do not choose how many Democrats, Republicans or independent voters to put into their samples — any more than they choose the number of voters for Mr. Obama or Mitt Romney. Instead, this is determined by the responses of the voters that they reach after calling random numbers from telephone directories or registered voter lists. Pollsters will re-weight their numbers if the demographics of their sample diverge from Census Bureau data. For instance, it is typically more challenging to get younger voters on the phone, so most pollsters weight their samples by age to remedy this problem. Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/29/poll-averages-have-no-history-of-consistent-partisan-bias/

SilverMark -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 7:45:58 AM)
When the polls are overwhelmingly in agreement, the only claim the losing side can make is bias. Short of Obama stepping on his dick, No One but the die hard Republicans can stomach Romney, and he rarely helps his own case. The election was the Republicans to win, and taking candidates who are truly more moderate than the base, as in the case with McCain and Romney and having them pander to the ultra right on social issues, simply shows their disingenuous attempts to win the office, not serve the people. Piss poor political management on behalf of the party, and the other candidates that ran in the primaries. If the Republicans want to serve their base they should be honest in doing so and nominate the candidates that are true believers. Of course it would lead to them being beaten like a rented mule, but they'd be honest in their intent. Does anyone really believe that Mitt Romney is as conservative as the social issue based members of the party?

mnottertail -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 7:51:49 AM)
Oh, the slaughter in november looms large in our psyche, the blood will flow and the goats will be sacrificed. Those that are thrown into the outer darkness will wail, and gnash their teeth..... And thru the burning miasma trods a man with magic underpants. Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiilllllllaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaard!!!!

DaNewAgeViking -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 11:45:38 AM)
Right now 270toWin.com is showing Obama ahead by 237 to 191, and they give odds of 98% to 2%. What's curious is that from the look of the ads they run, they are a hard right outfit - skewed? Hmmmm... [sm=beatdeadhorse.gif]

Hillwilliam -> RE: The parallel universe where Mitt Romney leads all polls (10/2/2012 2:19:24 PM)
If the Democrats are truly messing with the polls, wouldn't it make more sense for them to show a slight Romney lead? This would have the effect of energizing the D type voters and thus making them more likely to show up while taking the sense of urgency away from the R types.

Page: [1]

Collarchat.com © 2025

Terms of Service

0.1416016