DesideriScuri -> RE: Romney's surge. (10/10/2012 8:06:40 PM)
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ORIGINAL: DarkSteven I've been having a hard time figuring out where the heck it could have come from. I mean, yeah, Obama whuffed the debate, but debates usually don't matter. Then I figured it out. Obama got a bounce from his convention. Just before it evaporated, the tape of Romney decrying the 47% surfaced, and that killed Mitt's standings. Significantly, as the undecideds took stands, Romney actually LOST support. So he was losing popularity from his own supporters - it wasn't just missing out on the undecideds. Then the debate happened, and Romney essentially regained the ground he lost due to the video. My guess is that Romney simply came across as human enough to reassure his bloc, and gained them back to his fold. So it's a wash with regards to the support he lost from the video. That's my theory, and I'm sticking with it. Saw on FB (and from a dyed-in-the-wool Republican) that this jump was partly due to the polls going from a +4% Democrat sampling to a +3% Republican sampling. With a sampling shift like that, it's not unlikely to see a big jump. Add that on top of the trouncing at the debate and you can see where that bump comes from. It should even out a bit when they pull back from oversampling Republicans.
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