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DarkSteven -> RE: How will this natural disasters affect President Obama? (11/1/2012 8:02:52 PM)
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Good question.
Unfortunately, I have this concept locked in my head of the electoral map, and almost all the states are foregone conclusions. Only the swing states matter.
The following changes occurred due to Sandy:
1. It let Obama look more Presidential. And the country tends to rally 'round during a tragedy (think 9/11 and Bush). Plus for Obama.
2. It makes getting to the polls more problematic. The lower income folks may have less motivation to go vote, and they tend to vote Dem. Plus for Romney.
3. It makes getting to the polls more problematic. So the early voters may influence the election more than typical. Plus for Obama.
4. One of Obama's negatives, that he cannot work with the GOP, is being eroded by Christie due to the storm relief. Plus for Obama.
While it looks overall favorable for Obama, I weight #2 more heavily than the others, but expect #1 to weigh as well, especially since Brown squeaked in and criticized Obama for doing too good a job, reminding everyone of Bush's Katrina response.
That said, I see Ohio, Virginia, and Florida as being Romney's troika. He needs all three to get to 270 (and some additional luck even then). I expect him to take Florida and perhaps Virginia, but lose Ohio and the election. I don't see Sandy affecting that.
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