BambiBoi -> RE: Really? (11/27/2012 12:29:49 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: LadyPact quote:
ORIGINAL: BambiBoi ... On the social side of CollarMe, it seems to be 2-3 bottoms for every top. On the forums, 1.75 bottoms:1top. In more active websites (Alt, FL, SecondLife, AFF, etc) I'd wager 5 bottoms:1 top. A quick question for you. How are you determining your numbers? ... Thank you for the kind words, Lady Pact--Compliments always mean more from those you respect. I'm giddy to answer your methodology question. I doctored them until they matched my perception because my logical research was scarily off base. Are you familiar with the work of Enrico Fermi? He is famous for his quick estimation of how many piano tuners there are in Chicago, based on a handful of reasonable assumptions. The theory works because the odds are you will overestimate 1/2 the time, and underestimate 1/2 the time. Apparently if you keep tempering your number with reasonable thoughts, never letting go of your number, it comes out fairly accurately. I started way off base, and figured odds into it until I got a number that made some sense. In short: I guessed. My numbers could only come from active users. That is to say, 1,000 submissive male profiles mean nothing if they were created and quickly abandoned. This means I needed a low-maintenance system to track how active a user is. The forums do an amazing job. Anyone over 100 posts is an active participant on the forum. I also cut out switches, and ignored orientation which has interesting double-counting properties. Even those with 23,000 posts simply counted for one person. There was surprising unanimity between the forums. Each subforum was expectedly over-represented by the same. This number changes radically from thread to thread, so I took shorter threads. Long 5+ page threads have a lot of back-and-forth between the same people. This is partially why I tend to comment on shorter threads (because I'm counting). On the flip side, I checked dom vs. sub, male vs. female for how many people were on until the "last on" time went from hours to the previous day's date. Each page is 25 responses on my browser, which made counting easy. But these are often new profiles. So I'd check 25 and make the rude assumption that 1/2 won't be back in a month. I also messaged a few, and got responses. Interestingly, its very common for people to use the social side with 0 posts on the forum side. So I magnified my assumptions. A quick and dirty look indicated that 20 users for every forum user was overly generous to the forum. My original Fermi-esque number indicated that subs outnumber tops ~17:1, but hugely more if you allow "abandoned" profiles. I felt very uncomfortable reporting that, as even 3:1 is a wobbly and one sided. It didn't feel like 17:1 in my time here, or on SecondLife, or anywhere. In this thread there are 8 Dom-Males, 2 Sub-Males, 2 Dom-Females, 7 Sub-Females. Switches and couples aren't real people, anyway. What am I to make of this? The instant research suggests the OP is right, and nature has balanced 8 dominant men to 7 submissive women, and paired off the 2 dominant women and submissive men perfectly. So.... I tempered my results. My results indicated 17:1. Today's count (which is not irregular) indicated (basically) 1:1. I made the assumption that the forum is a terrible method of indication because of innate biases. So I took my results and weighed them. Peer reviewed research always indicates bottoms outnumber tops by a 5-35% margin, but that most of the bottoms, 60-75% of all bottoms, are women. (Admittedly these surveys have huge bias and fallacy problems, but "meh.") So... Bambi-Math says 17:1. Today's results say 1:1. Fermi average: 8.5:1. Peer review suggests 75% of bottoms are women. 25% of 8.5 = 2.125. So, for boys trying to get facefucked into vomitus, expect no better than 1 dominant for 2-3 male subs. With a little luck, she'll be poly. Inspired by XKCD's WhatIf. Edit: More carefully chosen words.
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