muhly22222 -> RE: "Shark Week" for the Supremes (3/27/2013 7:39:45 PM)
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ORIGINAL: dcnovice Between Prop 8 yesterday and DOMA today, this has been the SCOTUS equivalent of "shark week." So I'm curious: Who's been following the arguments? Any theories about how the justices will rule? Did you change your profile pic on Facebook? Did you notice whether friends changed theirs? I haven't been following the actual arguments all that closely, but I have read enough to get a general grip on the issues. I think Prop 8 will, for all intents and purposes, be upheld. The District Court found it to be constitutional, the opponents appealed, and at that point, the state of California decided to stop defending the law. So the 9th Circuit allowed the original (private) proponents of the amendment to step in and defend it going forward. The problem is that those private citizens didn't have standing to argue a legal position in the case. In order to have standing, there must be some sort of injury (or potential injury) to the party. So since the 9th Circuit's decisions was made with the presence of a party with standing, I suspect that their decision will be vacated and the case remanded. I would also have some expectation that the resolution of the DOMA case will be decided on procedural issues (such as federalism) rather than substantive ones. I heard a quote from Ruth Bader Ginsburg this past Sunday in which she expressed some hesitation at moving out in front of the American people on the issue (as expressed through the acts of the legislatures). I don't have the exact quote committed to memory, but the gist of it was that part of the reason that abortion is still the issue it is today is that the Court moved the law beyond the point where the American people were willing to go on an issue that there was movement on. She believes Roe was the right decision, just that it happened too early. For that reason, I could see her reaching for procedural grounds on which to resolve the case instead of actively declaring a right for same-sex couples to marry. The Court is usually one of the last government institutions to come around to a particular view (FDR's New Deal program, anyone?). So I wouldn't be surprised to see these cases end up being little more than a footnote in the history of the gay rights movement. Not that it necessarily should be that way, but that's how I see it playing out. Then again, I'm no expert. I don't really use Facebook, so I can't answer the last two.
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