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Yachtie -> Econ gauge (mult. choice) (4/1/2013 7:03:04 AM)
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With only 10 options available, that's how I constructed it. Poll is multiple choice.
The EURO will survive > meaning the EU banking system, though problematic, will hold together despite the bumps in the road. It is possible one or two EMS members could leave the EURO.
EU breakup is self explanatory. I added it simply because without common currency it seems appropriate countries should not continue to be under Brussels.
US Reserve Currency is coming under fire. Cross Nation direct exchanges are becoming more prevalent, most especially with China.
Four US banks hold near 50% of all deposits. TBTF is the order of the day. Bernanke, along with Nobel Economist Krugman, has indicated the banking system can "print"/bail its way out, without triggering high inflation. David Stockman, in his NYT piece yesterday, says otherwise.
The EMS and US are inextricably linked; i.e. Derivatives, etc.
World banking is linked via World Bank, IMF, US Reserve Currency, etc. If such as the EURO were to go down, it could not but send shock waves throughout the world banking system. If the US were added into the mix, all bets (imo) are off.
I'd like to have had more options. Break it down a bit more. For instance, in the US, given a worse case scenario, 401-K and IRA plans could come under attack as the banking system scrambles for funds. Such, imo, would precede deposit confiscations.
The permutations one can derive from the monetary problems are numerous. For instance, US banking might require 'massive haircuts' yet be salvageable. Haircuts could happen yet the system still collapses. Deflation could eventually be the order of the day with digital Dollars being wiped out. Last I saw there is, in the US, ~1.2T Cash versus ~9T deposits.
Anyway, just want to gauge where people's thought are.
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