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MasterCaneman -> RE: I want the WORLD to go to Mars....not just the United States.... (5/2/2013 9:18:31 PM)
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The only real problem (as I see it) is to synchronize all the bureaucracies that would be involved. Essentially, we have three major and two minor space agencies that really matter. NASA, RFSA (Russian Federal Space Ageny), and ESA are the heavy-lift capable, with NASDA (Japan) and ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) running close behind. Throw in the others (I did not know Algeria and Turkmenistan had space agenices), and you have layers upon gooey layer of red tape.
And that's just for the unclassified materials. Consider the fact that all terrestrial spacecraft were developed from ammunition essentially, and you start getting into the spooky world of "national security". We've actually had the technology to go to Mars since the 1960's (NERVA and ORION-1 programs), but treaty limitations and the mutual fear of nuclear materiel in orbit are too great. Don't get started on RTGs, they aren't quite the same as a full-on reactor/propulsion system. Another problem was the lack of political will, but I'll address that later.
And unless there is a major paradigm shift in attitudes and policies, forget commercial interests from stepping up to the plate. The returns would be too small and take too long. They (their shareholders really) demand fast turnover on their investments, especially with an intangible like a Martian colony. I can just imagine a broker telling a client over the phone, "You want to know where your ten million is? Go outside and look to southwest. See that little red dot? There's where your money is. Bye..." They are perfectly content with lofting comsats and other mundane payloads into LEO.
Another problem is the political cycle. Here is the US, politicians want projects they supported to be concluded quickly, preferably right before election time. They don't give a shit about humanity's future, only the next four years for them. Another problem is caused by them wanting to hang stuff on it that was built in their constituencies. Jobs equal votes, and if the project doesn't mean jobs in their district, it's a non-starter. Multiply that by however many nations get involved and you'll have boosters unable to get off the pad.
As I said before, we've had key components of the puzzle since the '60s, propulsion-wise. The real PITA is the fact that we need dedicated infrastructure on orbit to create the vessels sufficiently large enough to handle the task of going into deep space safely. I dismiss the idea that astronauts would be able to handle it inside an Orion capsule, even with an inflatable habitat, for 2-3 months or more. Something on the order of a Skylab-sized machine or bigger would be vastly preferable. Just building the infrastructure alone could be a decade-long project, unless the repurpose the ISS into a proto-space yard and industrial truss, rather than deorbit it like MIR (as is planned).
The last problem is...us. We are accustomed to instant gratification for the most part. Fast, safe, sure, and repeatable are what we want to hear and see. Every long-distance colonization on Earth has a body count over and above natural attrition. Add in the ability to see and hear things going on there (granted, with a few minutes delay), and people would sour when the first tragedies are reported. Perception is everything, and seeing and hearing astronauts last gasps would doom the mission quickly.
Do I want humanity to go to Mars? Of course I do. I've been a space geek since I was a kid, but along the way I learned a lot about how things that can be done sometimes aren't done because they don't do something else. If Earth were united under a single government, this would be a moot point, because then it could develop a singular focus on the problem. Until and unless, if there is to be a colonization mission, it would most likely be from one of the big three agencies, not a world-wide effort. For your viewing amusement and information, I'll throw in the link to Wikipedia (I used it for some of the agency names above). Cheers! And There Ain't No Such Thing As A Free Lunch....
Manned Missions to Mars
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