"Welcome to America's 30 year War" (Full Version)

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tweakabelle -> "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/17/2013 6:36:50 AM)

Glenn Greenwald, writing in today's 'Guardian' writes:

"Last October, senior Obama officials anonymously unveiled to the Washington Post their newly minted "disposition matrix", a complex computer system that will be used to determine how a terrorist suspect will be "disposed of": indefinite detention, prosecution in a real court, assassination-by-CIA-drones, etc. Their rationale for why this was needed now, a full 12 years after the 9/11 attack:

Among senior Obama administration officials, there is a broad consensus that such operations are likely to be extended at least another decade. Given the way al-Qaida continues to metastasize, some officials said no clear end is in sight. . . . That timeline suggests that the United States has reached only the midpoint of what was once known as the global war on terrorism."

On Thursday, the Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing on whether the statutory basis for this "war" - the 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force (AUMF) - should be revised (meaning: expanded). This is how Wired's Spencer Ackerman (soon to be the Guardian US's national security editor) described the most significant exchange:

"Asked at a Senate hearing today how long the war on terrorism will last, Michael Sheehan, the assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict, answered, 'At least 10 to 20 years.' . . . A spokeswoman, Army Col. Anne Edgecomb, clarified that Sheehan meant the conflict is likely to last 10 to 20 more years from today - atop the 12 years that the conflict has already lasted. Welcome to America's Thirty Years War."

That the Obama administration is now repeatedly declaring that the "war on terror" will last at least another decade (or two) is vastly more significant than all three of this week's big media controversies (Benghazi, IRS, and AP/DOJ) combined. The military historian Andrew Bacevich has spent years warning that US policy planners have adopted an explicit doctrine of "endless war". Obama officials, despite repeatedly boasting that they have delivered permanently crippling blows to al-Qaida, are now, as clearly as the English language permits, openly declaring this to be so.

It is hard to resist the conclusion that this war has no purpose other than its own eternal perpetuation. This war is not a means to any end but rather is the end in itself. Not only is it the end itself, but it is also its own fuel: it is precisely this endless war - justified in the name of stopping the threat of terrorism - that is the single greatest cause of that threat."

Read the full article here: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/17/endless-war-on-terror-obama

Defeating the already 'defeated, demoralised and disorganised' Al Quada will take another 20 or 30 years according to Obama Administration's top security officials. It is a war without any fixed aims or battlefields, largely conducted in secret, with virtually zero oversight or legal limitations on whom is targeted or where the targets might be located.

Meanwhile Americans see their rights being whittled away and their govt services disintegrate ......... Welcome to the US's 30 Year War.



vincentML -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/17/2013 8:10:52 AM)

Perhaps the United States has no real choice in the matter. Maybe the war is being brought to the US.

On March 11, 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabi published extracts from Saif al-Adel's document "Al Quaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".[65][66] Abdel Bari Atwan summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages to rid the Ummah from all forms of oppression:
1.Provoke the United States and the West into invading a Muslim country by staging a massive attack or string of attacks on U.S. soil that results in massive civilian casualties.
2.Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
3.Expand the conflict to neighboring countries, and engage the U.S. and its allies in a long war of attrition.
4.Convert al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against the U.S. and countries allied with the U.S. until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the 2004 Madrid train bombings, but which did not have the same effect with the July 7, 2005 London bombings.
5.The U.S. economy will finally collapse by the year 2020 under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places, making the worldwide economic system which is dependent on the U.S. also collapse leading to global political instability, which in turn leads to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world following the collapse of the U.S. and the rest of the Western world countries.

Atwan also noted, regarding the collapse of the U.S., "If this sounds far-fetched, it is sobering to consider that this virtually describes the downfall of the Soviet Union."[65]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al-Qaeda



kdsub -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/17/2013 5:38:47 PM)

quote:

It is hard to resist the conclusion that this war has no purpose other than its own eternal perpetuation. This war is not a means to any end but rather is the end in itself. Not only is it the end itself, but it is also its own fuel: it is precisely this endless war - justified in the name of stopping the threat of terrorism - that is the single greatest cause of that threat."


I would be interested in your ideas on how to end this war tweak

Butch



Kirata -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/17/2013 10:11:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

I would be interested in your ideas on how to end this war tweak

Granting that you were asking Tweak, here's my answer: We either stop trying to play nice and do the fucking job, or we arm the locals we like and hope for the best. There have never been any other options in this situation, despite that we continue inventing them. Here's a look at the war we're "winning" in Afghanistan:

This is what winning looks like.

K.



jlf1961 -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/17/2013 10:40:53 PM)

Gee, a little late dont ya think? The news broke last summer.



Owner59 -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/17/2013 11:08:52 PM)

I don`t know Tweak....I suppose as long as their`s folks planing to and attacking us we`ll be at it.


How long should we fight the war on crime?


It`s a bit to my left(politically) to imagine there`ll be a day when we don`t need police and/or soldiers to fight those who`re trying ti kill us.


There`s a chilling concept that`s prevalent in the radical Muslim mindset that basically there is no amount of time to long achieve their goals.

It doesn`t matter if "it" doesn`t happen in their lifetimes or their children`s or even their grand kid`s lives.As long as the fight goes on,one day the "goal" will be met.

It`s a great way of brainwashing men into never giving up,even if it means losing everything.

In this way...the war is perpetual and for forever.

If that`s the way they want to play it,we gotta drone for their murderous asses..........for as long as they want to dance.



tweakabelle -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 2:55:18 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

Perhaps the United States has no real choice in the matter. Maybe the war is being brought to the US.

quote:

Owner 59
If that`s the way they want to play it,we gotta drone for their murderous asses..........for as long as they want to dance.


Here, the argument is put that the US is essentially conducting a defensive operation against aggressive Islamist extremists. 'They started it, we'll finish it'. Is that really the case? Is it true that the US is an innocent victim of 'eebil Mooslem' fanatics?

This argument ignores a long history of Western intervention in Muslim lands, dating back to the events leading up to and surrounding foundation of Israel in 1949, the overthrow of Mosaddegh's democratic government in Iran in 1953, the propping up of Western-friendly dictators throughout the Arab world and the West's overriding addiction to Middle Eastern oil. This argument is unable to account for the fact that it is Western armies that are invading and occupying Muslim lands, there are no Muslim armies invading or occupying Western lands. This argument dates the conflict as starting on 9/11 and ignores everything that preceded that atrocity.

But above all, if we can agree that the goal from the US's perspective is or ought to be defeating Al Quada and the likes, this argument fails to account in any way for the US's choice of a strategy guaranteed to fail. Treating terrorism as a military issue is a strategy guaranteed to fail. One need look no further than Iran or Afghanistan or Palestine to see this claim confirmed.

So, from where I sit, casting the US as purely the victim of events fails to withstand any scrutiny. A far more realistic appraisal of the US's role is needed.



Politesub53 -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 4:06:39 AM)

All the time the west take one side or the other, this will continue. The truth is many of these conflicts are local, sectarian and tribal. How many times do I have to see lumping them all as an AQ operation is a massive mistake. Installing corrupt regimes as puppets doesnt help either.



jlf1961 -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 5:27:51 AM)

You want to end terrorism?

Well you could try to give every extremist, regardless of religion, a new lambo, the money to maintain it for its life, the money to drive it every day, and a nice house without the threat of being struck in a drone attack, a cruise missile attack, and any other violent act that tends to fuck up one's day...

Or you could get every western nation to work together to end the insanity of the middle east, and stop sticking their noses into shit, all that does is get all sides pissed off at the west.

Or you could eliminate 2/3's of the population of the planet, erase the remaining population's collective memories of military technology...

Or just eliminate the entire human population of the planet.

Otherwise we have to live with the results of the west's interference in a region that has a history of internal warfare.



JeffBC -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 6:17:31 AM)

Yeah... sadly the US needs this. If we ever stopped being at war the population might be able to take a look at what their own government is doing to them. In point of fact, America has been engaged in some sort of war/conflict/whatever for pretty much it's entire history less a few years here or there. There's another reason we need this. The military industrial complex demands it.

Insofar as what I'd do about it? For starters I'd stop calling law enforcement activities wars. Then I start treating them accordingly. Then I'd stop being such an asshat on the global stage and see where that got me.



vincentML -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 7:52:32 AM)

quote:

Here, the argument is put that the US is essentially conducting a defensive operation against aggressive Islamist extremists. 'They started it, we'll finish it'. Is that really the case? Is it true that the US is an innocent victim of 'eebil Mooslem' fanatics?

No. The US is not at all innocent. We have been an expansionist, internationalist power since 1898 when we began competing with France and Great Britain. So, not saying they started it. However, you did not highlight the predicate: Given the way al-Qaida continues to metastasize, some officials said no clear end is in sight. My point was that despite our culpability and given that AQ is reported to have grand designs, at this juncture we may have little choice because the jihad is being brought to us.

What are the alternatives? If we withdraw from this pandora's box now the followers of Sayyid Qbit's puritanism will continue their attacks on the West to provoke us and on apostate muslim nations to purify them. The muslim nations will have been abandoned. Looking at the 'muslim spring' through a glass darkly here. From this pov these are not democratic or freedom loving uprisings; they are fundamentalist insurgencies meant to establish sharia law and a worldwide caliphate as happened in Iran, and place all women in burkas.

quote:

This argument is unable to account for the fact that it is Western armies that are invading and occupying Muslim lands, there are no Muslim armies invading or occupying Western lands. This argument dates the conflict as starting on 9/11 and ignores everything that preceded that atrocity.

Wherever we wish to begin history we cannot discount the fact that militant islam is a toxic ideology that will not simply go away because we withdraw. I do agree we blundered with the two Gulf Wars of pater/fils Bush. I will be happy to see our armies out of Afghanastan. The result will not be pleasant. Russia is already talking of beefing up their military on their southern border in anticipation.

quote:

But above all, if we can agree that the goal from the US's perspective is or ought to be defeating Al Quada and the likes, this argument fails to account in any way for the US's choice of a strategy guaranteed to fail. Treating terrorism as a military issue is a strategy guaranteed to fail. One need look no further than Iran or Afghanistan or Palestine to see this claim confirmed.

We do agree on this if we are talking about heavy military involvement which is counterproductive. We are certain not to be able to sit down with al-Zawahiri and negotiate a peace. For one reason because that is not his intent and for another because the Islamists are so fragmented in location and affiliation.

What strategy do you suggest?



Owner59 -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 7:56:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jlf1961

You want to end terrorism?

Well you could try to give every extremist, regardless of religion, a new lambo, the money to maintain it for its life, the money to drive it every day, and a nice house without the threat of being struck in a drone attack, a cruise missile attack, and any other violent act that tends to fuck up one's day...

Or you could get every western nation to work together to end the insanity of the middle east, and stop sticking their noses into shit, all that does is get all sides pissed off at the west.

Or you could eliminate 2/3's of the population of the planet, erase the remaining population's collective memories of military technology...

Or just eliminate the entire human population of the planet.

Otherwise we have to live with the results of the west's interference in a region that has a history of internal warfare.



Well said.



kdsub -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 8:46:03 AM)

quote:

Here, the argument is put that the US is essentially conducting a defensive operation against aggressive Islamist extremists. 'They started it, we'll finish it'. Is that really the case? Is it true that the US is an innocent victim of 'eebil Mooslem' fanatics?


I would be interested in knowing your views on stopping this vicious cycle...or do you just like the blame game?


Butch



thishereboi -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/18/2013 9:23:40 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

quote:

It is hard to resist the conclusion that this war has no purpose other than its own eternal perpetuation. This war is not a means to any end but rather is the end in itself. Not only is it the end itself, but it is also its own fuel: it is precisely this endless war - justified in the name of stopping the threat of terrorism - that is the single greatest cause of that threat."


I would be interested in your ideas on how to end this war tweak

Butch



If I had to guess it would be ending all aid to Israel, but maybe not [8D]



tweakabelle -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/19/2013 3:00:49 AM)

quote:

VincentML
What strategy do you suggest?


There are a few things that can be done pretty quickly that would completely change the dynamics of this issue.

Immediate withdrawal of all foreign forces from the Middle East is imperative. This would remove one of the primary generators of Islamic terrorism. Forcing Israel to conclude a just peace with the Palestinians (ie on the basis of UN resolution 242) would remove another primary generator. Abandon all talk about a 'war' on terrorism. That has been a mistake from Day 1. It is seen as, and for all practical purposes is a war on Islam and as such, is unwinnable.

If the West spoke with one voice to declare a longer term policy of military non-intervention, support for making the region a nuclear weapons free zone and promotion of democratic values and human rights, it would serve to repair a lot of the damage already done. This would mean in practice reducing support for non-democratic countries over time, withdrawing trade and diplomatic support for dictatorial regimes, banning arms sales to countries that either flout international law and norms of behaviour or decline to take the democratic path. Those countries that choose a democratic future should receive support in nation building consistent with their cultural traditions, trade advantages and other support.

Measures such as these would remove the root causes of terrorism, and separate extremist groups from their support base - the two main elements of a successful counter-terrorist strategy. Rather than being seen as offering 'solutions', extremists and extremism would become seen as part of the problem, not part of the solution. Their raison d'etre will have disappeared. In a relatively short time frame, cut off from the popular support bases that are absolutely critical to their functioning, terrorism and the groups that espouse that strategy would wither away .



tj444 -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/19/2013 6:08:51 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

Welcome to the US's 30 Year War.

I dont see this as a war that started with 9/11.. this started decades ago with the Shah of Iran & the US meddling in the mid-east.. a "war" has a starting point and that was it.. it was the fuel for the fire.. jmo..



vincentML -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/19/2013 8:04:16 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

quote:

VincentML
What strategy do you suggest?


There are a few things that can be done pretty quickly that would completely change the dynamics of this issue.

Immediate withdrawal of all foreign forces from the Middle East is imperative. This would remove one of the primary generators of Islamic terrorism. Forcing Israel to conclude a just peace with the Palestinians (ie on the basis of UN resolution 242) would remove another primary generator. Abandon all talk about a 'war' on terrorism. That has been a mistake from Day 1. It is seen as, and for all practical purposes is a war on Islam and as such, is unwinnable.

If the West spoke with one voice to declare a longer term policy of military non-intervention, support for making the region a nuclear weapons free zone and promotion of democratic values and human rights, it would serve to repair a lot of the damage already done. This would mean in practice reducing support for non-democratic countries over time, withdrawing trade and diplomatic support for dictatorial regimes, banning arms sales to countries that either flout international law and norms of behaviour or decline to take the democratic path. Those countries that choose a democratic future should receive support in nation building consistent with their cultural traditions, trade advantages and other support.

Measures such as these would remove the root causes of terrorism, and separate extremist groups from their support base - the two main elements of a successful counter-terrorist strategy. Rather than being seen as offering 'solutions', extremists and extremism would become seen as part of the problem, not part of the solution. Their raison d'etre will have disappeared. In a relatively short time frame, cut off from the popular support bases that are absolutely critical to their functioning, terrorism and the groups that espouse that strategy would wither away .

As I understand it there was a great deal of sympathy for the US in the 'arab street' after 9/11 despite the videos we saw here of Palestinians celebrating our tragedy. If that is true the sympathy vanished rapidly after GW Bush took his 'cowboy' stance against Afghanistan and then invaded Iraq. Perhaps it would have vanished quickly anyway. That cat is out of the bag.

There seems to be no way anyone can 'force' Israel to make a just peace with the Palestinians. Israel is winning with its current strategy which is, as you know, a settlers' movement propelled by their orthodox religious who believe the land was ceeded to them by their iron age warrior god.

The US is not able to speak with one voice within itself. The coalition on the Left might happily wish to withdraw troops from the ME but our politics is pressured by a coalition on the Right of warrior nationalism and religious fundamentalism. To my mind a very troublesome coalition. Obama has been trying to extricate our large military footprint while substituting a small force counter 'extremist' strategy. Not just for the sake of diplomacy but because the large force strategy is costly and misguided. The 'defense' of Israel is a major factor in our politics. The Left or Center Left could never win the presidency with a candidate who advocates forcing israel to do anything. That is our reality atm.

It would be ideal to support democratic regimes [rather than seek to establish them by force] However, although it may be too early to judge, the 'Arab Spring' offers great risk of replacing secular/royalist dictatorships with theological dictatorships. In Egypt for example the number of persecutions of Christians for blasphemy against Islam has risen from one or two a year to ten a year. Teachers are especially targeted. The call for Western nations to support so called "democratic" insurgents is clouded by the involvement of al-quaeda sprouts and the Islamic Brotherhood. So yes, we should support middle east democracies when they are successfully formed and not before. But I am in doubt such democracies will form of their own volition.

I agree pretty much with the ideals you listed. The 'shoulds' and 'oughts.' But there are three countervailing realpolitik issues, imo: The US is split along fault lines between a humanitarian secular Left and a warrior religious Right; there is a great deal of public support here for Israel while the Palestinians are invisible against all the brown people wallpaper of the muslim world; and, as I stated earlier, it is my belief that militant islamists will nonetheless continue to attack to provoke the West and continue to attack 'apostate' muslim nations.

So, everything you suggest would be ideal but I see huge obstacles to such hoped for solutions. Sorry. The counter-war will probably continue and perhaps in its present small force form.








vincentML -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/19/2013 8:12:53 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: tj444


quote:

ORIGINAL: tweakabelle

Welcome to the US's 30 Year War.

I dont see this as a war that started with 9/11.. this started decades ago with the Shah of Iran & the US meddling in the mid-east.. a "war" has a starting point and that was it.. it was the fuel for the fire.. jmo..

It's hard to judge the 'first day' of history, innit? You might go back to 1915 when the Ottomen Empire was in its death throes and a million or so Armenian christians were being slaughtered by Turks and Kurds. Oh hell, you might even go back to the Crusades for recovery of the Holy Land. I love the line from The History Boys when one student was asked to define 'history' and replied something to the effect: it's the same old shit. (If memory serves me)



DomKen -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/19/2013 8:19:31 AM)

Dreaming nonsense aside, we are looking at least at a couple of generations of terrorism aimed at the West coming out of the ME. There is nothing we can do to prevent that.

If we isolate ourselves we leave those who follow Sayyid Qutib's philosphy alone to build their groups and to eventually topple the weakly supported states of the ME. In that scenario we could certainly be looking at a radical "caliphate" attacking the West with a radioactive crater where Tel Aviv is now.

What really must occur is we must help the ME states to improve their economies, content middle class families produce few terrorists. We must ebcourage democratization of those states as well but we ust push the economic improvements first. Also we really have no choice but continuing to kill the leadership of these groups as they are identified.



vincentML -> RE: "Welcome to America's 30 year War" (5/19/2013 8:24:27 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Dreaming nonsense aside, we are looking at least at a couple of generations of terrorism aimed at the West coming out of the ME. There is nothing we can do to prevent that.

If we isolate ourselves we leave those who follow Sayyid Qutib's philosphy alone to build their groups and to eventually topple the weakly supported states of the ME. In that scenario we could certainly be looking at a radical "caliphate" attacking the West with a radioactive crater where Tel Aviv is now.

What really must occur is we must help the ME states to improve their economies, content middle class families produce few terrorists. We must ebcourage democratization of those states as well but we ust push the economic improvements first. Also we really have no choice but continuing to kill the leadership of these groups as they are identified.

You and I are pretty much in agreement here. However, wherever you have plutocracy you will have a continuing disparity of wealth. So, economic improvements are problematic.



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