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It doesn't matter what country you are in, reported crime rates are about as useful as a crystal ball for predicting anything. There is too much that goes unreported in the first place, and too many variations in what constitutes a 'crime' in the second place.

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What any Intro to Crim/Soc/Psych class in the last 50 years should have taught, is that in more stable societies people 'age out' of crime (Hirschi). So the curve (Which can be overlaid on all sorts of other phenomena for those who are impressed by correlation) is merely a reflection of the population bubble known as the Baby Boom.

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ORIGINAL: YN

Criminal homicides, and serious assaults with deadly weapons are rather well reported worldwide. Dead bodies with stab wounds and bullet holes are hard to deny, as are those survivors who seek professional medical attention.

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The BCS also fails to record crimes against businesses, commercial premises and vehicles and (because it is a victim survey) instances of murder and manslaughter.

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ORIGINAL: tazzygirl
We havent had a bulge like the boom.

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ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

We have had a lot of discussion on the crime rate in the US. Just the US. I cannot speak about this for any other country.

Having said that, I have long thought there was something more to the crime statistics than what is being reported by the MSM as well as the Justice department.

Who caused the jump in the crime rates?

The Baby Boomers.

It wasnt a lack of gun controls/ more gun controls/less gun ownership/ more gun ownership/ prison time/ lenient penal system/ ect ect ect.

But, I couldnt really find the proof I needed, and frankly, I was too lazy to look this stuff up and do the research myself. But watching a discussion on another site got me to looking. Surely I could not be the only one to be making this correlation.

And I wasnt.

First, the handy little graph on crime statictics....



Keep in mind the Baby Boomer generation was 1946 - 1964. So the youngest today would be 49. The oldest 67.

Now, on to the written piece.

It is interesting to note that almost no correlation has been found between the rising and then falling crime rates. States which severely toughened their criminal penalties and states that did not had equally increased, then equally decreased crime rates. States which were concealed weapon friendly and states which were not had essentially the same rates of violent crime, home invasions, and rape, both going up and going down. In other words, it does not appear that either jurisprudence or penology had much to do with the rise and then the fall of the crime rate.

In fact, there is really only one correlation that can be drawn, and that is the baby boomer generation. The crime rate went up as the baby boomers reached their adult years and began to go down as the baby boomers reached their senior years. There have already been some preliminary studies done that show that the generations that follow the baby boomers already show a lower crime rate than the baby boomers. In fact, after every other factor has been eliminated but the age of the baby boomers, the only explanation left is that the baby boomers, as a generation, are much more willing to disobey the law.

In one way that is not fully surprising. The “ME” generation followed the Greatest Generation. Raised on Benjamin Spock, they learned that their every wish should be fulfilled. As a result, they were the generation that began to see what they wanted as being the most important thing, and anything that blocked what they wanted as being somehow not right. It is no wonder that the crime statistics began to skyrocket.


http://www.orthocuban.com/2011/09/baby-boomers-and-the-crime-rate/

Im not sure I completely agree with his "Me" concept. However, I do believe that when the largest generation born starts to have the normal "angst" of growing up, its going to be reflected in the numbers.

For example, from the government BoJ site....

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Males, blacks, and persons ages 18 to 24 had the highest rates of firearm homicide from 1993 to 2010.

http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=4616

When that number is the largest in our history, and has since declined, as many have noted for many years when discussing not only health care of the Boomers but also SS benefits and the like.. do we really have to wonder why crime rates went down?

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ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

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For example, murder rates have always been higher in big cities than in towns and small cities.

Because there are more people.

Thats sorta a no brainer.

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ORIGINAL: tj444

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ORIGINAL: tazzygirl
The Baby Boomers.

oh sure.. blame the boomers..

I dont think the boomers had everything handed to them or got whatever they wanted, I think the kids of the boomers did tho, cuz boomers wanted to give their kids everything they didnt have, etc...

If this theory is correct, then wouldnt we be expecting the graph to head up again with the next biggest bulge which are the spoiled brats of boomers?

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ORIGINAL: tj444

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ORIGINAL: tazzygirl
We havent had a bulge like the boom.

I know.. personally, I think age affects crime rates, as men age they become less violent.. there may be other factors also, I am not saying that age is the only factor..

If the whole "me" thing affects crime rates, then imo "my right to own a gun" and "my right to shoot first and ask questions later" also affects crime.. but those "my right" things comes from believing that your Constitution gives you those rights, not cuz someone is a boomer..

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ORIGINAL: tazzygirl

Im more willing to blame that on cable. When I was young, we had 4 channels. Wasnt much on to keep a kid entertained until early afternoon. Sesame Street didnt even air until 1969. I remember that and Kaptain Kangaroo. Saturday mornings was the time to watch TV, and our parents to sleep in. Other than that, we were out in the yard playing.

My point with this was not to blame the Boomer generation for the increase in crime per se. We had a swell in population in relationship to the rest of the population. It spilled into the age groups who are more prone to committing violent crimes. As they have aged, crime has reduced.

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ORIGINAL: BamaD

Problem with this theory is simple why did crime rates skyrocket as baby boomers reached the violence prone years? It isn't like there was an increase in the use of lead. In fact plastics had already come into vogue for toys as they were cheaper than lead. This same study also credited eugenics ie. aborting the right people cut crime.

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ORIGINAL: tazzygirl
You do have a good point there. The "Me" generation may have grown up, but that doesnt mean they have stopped with the crime to get ahead. Its just progressed in other areas. Our government for example. Its all about themselves and not about the people. As they age, Im sure white collar crime goes up and violent crime goes down.

For example....
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/30/us/former-school-chief-in-atlanta-indicted-in-cheating-scandal.html?emc=na&_r=1&

http://www.tampabay.com/specials/publication/Times_1A/20130329.pdf

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ORIGINAL: BamaD

Problem with this theory is simple why did crime rates skyrocket as baby boomers reached the violence prone years? It isn't like there was an increase in the use of lead. In fact plastics had already come into vogue for toys as they were cheaper than lead. This same study also credited eugenics ie. aborting the right people cut crime.

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ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

Are you going to call "35 years ago "recently banned?
Asbestos and lead paint were banned in 1978

Now I'll grant you that asbestos was a known health hazard.

In 79 AD, Pliny the Elder noted that slaves who had the occupation of weaving cloth from asbestos tended to die at a relatively young age from lung diseases.

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UK until 1999