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Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 9:48:47 PM   
Kana


Posts: 6676
Joined: 10/24/2006
Status: offline 		The NYT has a really fascinating article about how the big banks play all ends of the commodities market, to the worlds expense,while making obscene profits.

Commodities involve the obvious,oil, energy, but also things like aluminum and many other
Page three they discuss oil:

"In 2011, for instance, an internal Goldman memo suggested that speculation by investors accounted for about a third of the price of a barrel of oil. A commissioner at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator, subsequently used that estimate to calculate that speculation added about $10 per fill-up for the average American driver. Other experts have put the total, combined cost at $200 billion a year."

This article really is a must read.

< Message edited by Kana -- 7/20/2013 9:50:50 PM >

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 9:54:44 PM   
Phydeaux


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Status: offline 		There is more going on than the article mentions.

First, one of the costs of the deficits is that china (and others) are looking to diversify out of dollars, as they recognize that we are, essentially, just printing dollars.

One of the things that they have been buying as been commodities, most notably oil.

At the same time - there are huge sums of money floating around the world right now in desperate search for good returns, and a shortage of safe places to park it.

Its part of the same reason (in combination with the fed bond buying) that US stock prices are close to record highs.

(in reply to Kana)
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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 9:58:50 PM   
Kana


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

There is more going on than the article mentions.

First, one of the costs of the deficits is that china (and others) are looking to diversify out of dollars, as they recognize that we are, essentially, just printing dollars.

One of the things that they have been buying as been commodities, most notably oil.

At the same time - there are huge sums of money floating around the world right now in desperate search for good returns, and a shortage of safe places to park it.

Its part of the same reason (in combination with the fed bond buying) that US stock prices are close to record highs.

Yeah, but it's also highly suggestive of how banks have diversified and now control vertical supply chains. That's my main interest. I also like the part at the end, where despite evidence to the contrary, despite the fact that it doesn't take much common sense to realize that letting anyone control 80% of the copper on the market, despite the fact that the copper producers(!) are against it, the outgoing head of the SEC approved the deal.
It's indicitive of how the banks and the government work in synch.

< Message edited by Kana -- 7/20/2013 9:59:13 PM >

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 10:08:52 PM   
Oneechan


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Status: offline 		nvm

< Message edited by Oneechan -- 7/20/2013 10:09:22 PM >

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 10:09:29 PM   
pahunkboy


Posts: 33061
Joined: 2/26/2006
From: Central Pennsylvania
Status: offline 		bankers are leaches. they count and quanitify the beans- they do not grow, plant, furnish, harvest, process or transport teh beans.

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 10:56:47 PM   
Edwynn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

There is more going on than the article mentions.

First, one of the costs of the deficits is that china (and others) are looking to diversify out of dollars, as they recognize that we are, essentially, just printing dollars.

One of the things that they have been buying as been commodities, most notably oil.


Nobody buys oil to "diversify out of dollars." Gold is the only commodity that has even peripheral, if however distant, purpose of diversification from the dollar or any other currency. China buys commodities to make use of them, being a growing economy and all. The speculators buy the futures contracts,to bet against each other, and occasionally game the system in the process, in attempt to anticipate the actual usage of commodities by China and others.

quote:

At the same time - there are huge sums of money floating around the world right now in desperate search for good returns, and a shortage of safe places to park it.


If there were not such huge sums of money floating around the world in desperate search for unrealistic returns 6-10 years ago, then the search for even half-decent returns might not be so 'desperate' now. Not to mention how this same 'desperation' by this same group in the past has by their own actions accounted for the great deterioration in the safety of 'parking places' for their ill-gotten gains obtained thereby.

Don't worry, you're certainly not the only one who clearly doesn't get it.






< Message edited by Edwynn -- 7/20/2013 11:27:56 PM >

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:07:52 PM   
Edwynn


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kana
Yeah, but it's also highly suggestive of how banks have diversified and now control vertical supply chains.


In the old days, vertical integration meant developing yourself or buying a company in place that was part of your supply chain. This assuming that you actually made anything. Banks don't make anything but loans and foreclosures, the former being of value to society in some cases.

Nowadays, it's done synthetically, by just venturing into participation in the financial derivatives in relation to market price of the commodity and value-added processes along the same chain.






< Message edited by Edwynn -- 7/20/2013 11:20:24 PM >

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:10:17 PM   
Phydeaux


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Kana

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

There is more going on than the article mentions.

First, one of the costs of the deficits is that china (and others) are looking to diversify out of dollars, as they recognize that we are, essentially, just printing dollars.

One of the things that they have been buying as been commodities, most notably oil.

At the same time - there are huge sums of money floating around the world right now in desperate search for good returns, and a shortage of safe places to park it.

Its part of the same reason (in combination with the fed bond buying) that US stock prices are close to record highs.

Yeah, but it's also highly suggestive of how banks have diversified and now control vertical supply chains. That's my main interest. I also like the part at the end, where despite evidence to the contrary, despite the fact that it doesn't take much common sense to realize that letting anyone control 80% of the copper on the market, despite the fact that the copper producers(!) are against it, the outgoing head of the SEC approved the deal.
It's indicitive of how the banks and the government work in synch.


Completely agree. Its funny how the Frank reform bill - didn't.
IT didnt' solve the problem of too big to fail.
It didn't restore glass seagald.

But it did create yet one more govt beauracracy - with oversight. Yah!


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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:23:52 PM   
Phydeaux


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Edwynn


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

There is more going on than the article mentions.

First, one of the costs of the deficits is that china (and others) are looking to diversify out of dollars, as they recognize that we are, essentially, just printing dollars.

One of the things that they have been buying as been commodities, most notably oil.


Nobody buys oil to "diversify out of dollars." China buys commodities to make use of them, being a growing economy and all. The speculators buy the futures contracts,to bet against each other, and occasionally game the system in the process, in attempt to anticipate the actual usage of commodities by China and others.

quote:

At the same time - there are huge sums of money floating around the world right now in desperate search for good returns, and a shortage of safe places to park it.


If there were not such huge sums of money floating around the world in desperate search for unrealistic returns 6-10 years ago, then the search for even half-decent returns might not be so 'desperate' now. Not to mention how this same 'desperation' by this same group in the past has by their own actions accounted for the great deterioration in the safety of 'parking places' for their ill-gotten gains obtained thereby.

Don't worry, you're certainly not the only one who clearly doesn't get it.




And once again - you're wrong with no quotes or facts to back up your world view.


http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/12274/china-extends-global-yuan-effort-to-commodities-markets
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chinese-usd-diversification-continues-first-euro-bonds-now-jgbs

Do you understand that 'speculation' in a commodity is not to buy the commodity for use. It is by definition an attempt to gain value by trades in commodities.

And just because you have no understanding or knowledge of it doens't mean it isn't happening - it has happened multiple times since Enron.

Fundamentally, oil is denominated in dollars. So decreases in the value of the dollar make oil cheaper for the rest of the world, and was a good way of hedging against us currency exposure.

One way it worked was you bought a long term oil contract. This served to drive oil prices higher. If the dollar got weaker at the end of the contract - you profited from both the cheaper dollar and the more expensive oil. And since it was quite a fade for a while - people made a lot of money at it.

That is - until high oil prices have fueled the growth of fracking in the US. So much supply is coming online now - I m not sure its a valid play any longer.

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:30:18 PM   
Termyn8or


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Status: offline 		FR

Actually speculation raises the price of everything you buy. There are no exceptions but some things are worse than others. Think of the commodities trade itself, what are the majjor trades ? Corn, sugar, pork bellies, beef, oil, salt, metals all the way down to steel, the list goes on. However the corn and oil both affect fuel prices and thus affect EVERYTHING else, and some things multiple times as partially assembled or made products are shipped to different locations for further processes.

Now step back and look at the big picture. Speculating on essential commodity is buying it up so as to raise the price artificially to make money for nothing. Sounds like stelaing doesn't it ? Wouldn't you like to stop it and put an end to this effective private tax on everything ? It would be so nice, everything would be cheaper and we could all live a bit better and those fatcats wouldn't be eating out our substance quite as fast. Oh it would be so wonderful........

NOT SO FAST.

Investments depend on these money for nothing schemes. That means retirement funds.

Of course that means "inflation", and as such inflation creates the need to continually make more money. If not, and you just sit on the money you lose money. It is a symbiotic relationship. Don't forget that part of that wealth goes into Granny's cat food budget. The rest is soaked up by those who started making money with money.

I have thought this as well as alot of things out, and there is no way out at this point. The only way is a total collapse, and it was always inevitable. It could have been alot longer if not for the abuses, but such a system is not sustainable. It is foolish to pretend it is.

If it had never started things would be different. First of all overpopulation would not be as severe. And then we would not have gone to the moon, at least it wouldn't be likely. Of course now we can't even get into orbit and back without help but that's beside the point. That is a whole different dimension in mismanagement. No more space age technology, it is now spy age technology. Your PC wouldn't be as good if it even existed, but what's his name of IBM said once that noone would ever want a computer in their home. We would not have missed it having never had it.

Be proud.

Everything is money now, there is no morality. McDonald's owners will not eat their product. I bet Monsanto executives do not like corn. If so, they can afford the organic shit. Just like beef farmers who pump their product full of hormones and feed them corn which makes them sick can afford good beef from Argentina.

Smart investors make money. The US got on the outs with certain parts of South America and they knew to buy sugar and corn. The sugar prices went up because people got sick of the US' meddling and shit. That created more demand for HFCS which drove up corn. See if you have certain information you can make a bunch of money.

When the US attacks Iran, oil will go up. Someone will close Hormutz, shit will happen. When it does (or right before), the smart money is going to buy oil. Not in barrells, but on paper.

And you know what ? They are going to use your bank deposits to do it. If they win you get your 1 % APY while THEY make prehaps ten times that. If they lose the government will cover YOUR loss up to a quarter million. If you have more than that put it offshore because the quarter millkion limit is per person, not per account.

Yes, the system is just fine. Running like a well oiled machine. It has been for a long time.

(I don't know what kind of pun that really is, but it's stuck there)

T^T

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:32:37 PM   
Termyn8or


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quote:

Fundamentally, oil is denominated in dollars. So decreases in the value of the dollar make oil cheaper for the rest of the world, and was a good way of hedging against us currency exposure.


True, but that is changing. When the next war starts it is going to change ALOT more. I think I'll put my money in Costa Rican colonas.

T

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:32:51 PM   
tj444


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Status: offline 		well.. the answer is very simple.. if consumers truly want to stop the aluminum speculation by banksters, then they should buy their beer in plastic bottles..

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:35:27 PM   
Termyn8or


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Joined: 11/12/2005
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quote:

Completely agree. Its funny how the Frank reform bill - didn't.
IT didnt' solve the problem of too big to fail.
It didn't restore glass seagald.

But it did create yet one more govt beauracracy - with oversight. Yah!


(Glass Steagul)

OK fuck the spelling lesson. Given what you said about the regulations, do you agree that we are poised for an even bigger crash in the next few years ? They really aren't doing much different.

Well they are slightly but they are still betting the rent so to speak.

T^T

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:36:40 PM   
Termyn8or


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quote:

well.. the answer is very simple.. if consumers truly want to stop the aluminum speculation by banksters, then they should buy their beer in plastic bottles..


YIK !

T^T

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:50:40 PM   
Edwynn


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Status: offline 		Thanks for the explanation.

But as for the financial fiasco and the causes, I stand by that completely. People deep into the business whom I trust explained it to me.

As to the question of China getting out of dollars and 'into oil,' I'm just saying that I'm not aware of China venturing into futures contracts for speculative purpose only, as replacement for buying US Treasuries. (Almost) all companies that use fuel as an input use futures or forward contracts to lock in near-future costs, not for speculation.

quote:

Do you understand that 'speculation' in a commodity is not to buy the commodity for use. It is by definition an attempt to gain value by trades in commodities.


I'm reasonably sure that everything in my post made a clear distinction between actual use and speculation, sorry if you missed that. I understand the difference between strike price and spot price, if that's any help.


quote:

Fundamentally, oil is denominated in dollars. So decreases in the value of the dollar make oil cheaper for the rest of the world, and was a good way of hedging against us currency exposure
.

For buyers of oil, yes. For sellers of oil, no.

quote:

One way it worked was you bought a long term oil contract. This served to drive oil prices higher.


Only if a bunch of other people did likewise, which would only happen if you were in collusion. That's the ICE's business model, in fact.

quote:

If the dollar got weaker at the end of the contract - you profited from both the cheaper dollar and the more expensive oil.


Yes, I understand that it's an arbitrage play between the dollar and oil, and the numerous artificially engineered disparities between the two as manipulated by the speculators (thanks again, Phil Gramm, ICE, et al.).

This still doesn't explain how the Chinese government is "getting out of dollars and into oil." Not all of the economy or even all derivatives are a zero sum game, but that's certainly what all futures contracts are for the speculators. Actual users of the commodity in question derive benefit from elimination of uncertainty of future costs, by use of futures and forwards, but if you have good evidence that the Chines government ( not the companies in that country who might buy a future or forward for legitimate purpose) is now getting into highly speculative commodities derivatives as replacement for treasuries, let's see it, which your links didn't show.

Your links said that China is diversifying into other currencies and financial assets based therein, nothing about commodities (especially not oil, for that purpose), and certainly nothing about any derivatives in commodities, and even more certainly not those in answer to a desperately sought 'safe' place to park their money.

Read and comprehend your own links, how 'bout it?




< Message edited by Edwynn -- 7/21/2013 12:44:59 AM >

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/20/2013 11:55:15 PM   
Termyn8or


Posts: 18681
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Status: offline 		China should speculate in oil because they use so much of it. Really it drives up the price a bit but then they get some of that profit.

Almost like hedging a bet. And if oil goes down (fat chance), so what ? It's like they regulate their own price. The difference is that in the US the taxpayers take all the loss and private investors take all the gain. Communism is a bit different.

T^T

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/21/2013 12:39:30 AM   
tj444


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

quote:

well.. the answer is very simple.. if consumers truly want to stop the aluminum speculation by banksters, then they should buy their beer in plastic bottles..


YIK !

T^T

can you tell I dont drink beer???

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/21/2013 1:20:15 AM   
MrRodgers


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Status: offline 		There is no news here. Speculating such as this has been going on since we did what ? Turned paper...into money and created big exchanges to trade this paper. Must be a slow news day for the NYT so this article is merely filler except for a sort of populist chance to jump on the banks.

Yes, it is as simple as that. When we see anything bought and sold via paper, meaning even stocks and bonds in addition to commodities, when the buyers greatly out number the sellers, we see the prices go up. When the speculators end this addition to their portfolio or feel that in the case of commodities that supply is about to go up, they sell.

As I've written several times and still must write again. We were warned about this most significantly by John Adams who wrote that should we meaning anybody as a society allow the creation of huge exchanges for and in this fashion, turn paper into money, we will forever be...slave to the speculators. He was exactly right.

That means that all users, i.e., big oil and commodity users such as big agriculture, suffer and must hedge against this speculation in the price of their commodity. Once the speculators stop and the selling starts. this causes the price to fall...often precipitously. Those who got in early make money, those who got in late or last, have either hedged the price and make money, break even, lose less or...lose their shirts.

Inflation in the price of commodities (the $10 per tank) (corn too) is from the speculation via futures (contracts) of these commodities.

The big equity banks are merely the largest non-users to add to the speculation, so it isn't ALL them or anybody but are simply the largest of the non-users among the speculators.

Oil companies and big agra. actually hate this as they too become slave to the speculators. Therefore, they must jump in to protect their investment in the real thing and its price...not merely paper.. Understand ?

As for the link specifically ?

As for buying beer in plastic bottles, the the price of oil will go up as plastics are made using petrochemicals. When it comes to food or manufacturing commodities...there is no escape.

The only way to contain the volatility from this paper speculation is to tax it and that will never happen.

< Message edited by MrRodgers -- 7/21/2013 1:50:39 AM >

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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/21/2013 1:49:27 AM   
Lucylastic


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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

There is no news here. Speculating such as this has been going on since we did what ? Turned paper...into money and created big exchanges to trade this paper. Must be a slow news day for the NYT so this article is merely filler except for a sort of populist chance to jump on the banks.

Yes, it is as simple as that. When we see anything bought and sold via paper, meaning even stocks and bonds in addition to commodities, when the buyers greatly out number the sellers, we see the prices go up. When the speculators end this addition to their portfolio or feel that in the case of commodities that supply is about to go up, they sell.

As I've written several times and still must write again. We were warned about this most significantly by John Adams who wrote that should we meaning anybody as a society allow the creation of huge exchanges for and in this fashion, turn paper into money, we will forever be...slave to the speculators. He was exactly right.

That means that all users, i.e., big oil and commodity users such as big agriculture, suffer and must hedge against this speculation in the price of their commodity. Once the speculators stop and the selling starts. this causes the price to fall...often precipitously. Those who got in early make money, those who got in late or last, have either hedged the price and make money, break even, lose less or...lose their shirts.

Inflation in the price of commodities (the $10 per tank) (corn too) is from the speculation via futures (contracts) of these commodities.

The big equity banks are merely the largest non-users to add to the speculation, so it isn't ALL them or anybody but are simply the largest of the non-users among the speculators.

Oil companies and big agra. actually hate this as they too become slave to the speculators. Therefore, they must jump in to protect their investment in the real thing and its price...not merely paper.. Understand ?

As for buying beer in plastic bottles, the the price of oil will go up as plastics are made using petrochemicals. When it comes to food or manufacturing commodities...there is no escape.

The only way to contain the volatility from this paper speculation is to tax it and that will never happen.



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RE: Big Bank speculating adds $10 per fill-up - 7/21/2013 5:49:38 AM   
Edwynn


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quote:

Oil companies and big agra. actually hate this as they too become slave to the speculators.


Not sure where this comes from. The oil companies have been in the derivatives game for some years now. They'd be stupid not to.

http://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc5106/

Given the diversification benefit of crude oil mixed with equities, this study then examines the value effect of crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers. Differing from traditional corporate risk management literature, this study examines corporate derivatives transactions from the shareholders' portfolio perspective. The results show that crude oil derivatives transactions by oil and gas producers do impact value. If oil and gas producing companies stop shorting crude oil derivatives contracts, company stock prices increase significantly. In contrast, if oil and gas producing companies start shorting crude oil derivatives contracts, stock prices drop marginally significantly. Thus, hedging by producers is not necessarily good.

And then this:

http://thinkprogress.org/report/koch-oil-speculation/?mobile=nc


– October 6, 1986: First oil derivative is introduced to Wall Street by traders at Koch. Koch Industries executive Lawrence Kitchen devised the “first ever oil-indexed price swap between Koch Industries and Chase Manhattan Bank.” At the time, such derivatives had been limited to currency markets, and the shift of creating a synthetic financial instrument based on the value of crude oil was revolutionary. For an agreed-upon period, an oil swap is a contract where one party makes payments based on a fixed oil price, and the other party makes payments back based on the changing spot price of oil. In July of 2009, EnergyRisk magazine, a publication for commodity traders, posted a piece exploring the very first oil derivatives and Koch’s role in developing them.

– 1990-1992: Koch, along with several oil companies and Wall Street speculators, form a coalition lobbying group to deregulate oil speculation. A coalition called “The Energy Group” is organized to press the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to allow oil derivatives to be traded off the NYMEX or any other regulated exchange. Participants in the coalition include Koch, Enron, Phibro (a powerful commodity speculator firm recently sold from Citigroup to Occidental Petroleum), J. Aron & Co (a commodity trading division of Goldman Sachs), BP, and other companies. -


Of course the oil companies can suffer a loss on derivatives if taking the wrong side of the futures bet on occasion, but in that event they more than make up for it on the production and refining side of it.

Antonia Juatz's excellent book, The Tyranny Of Oil goes into this in significant detail.

I mean, it's not as though the four oil companies in composition of the first ten of the Fortune 500 are going to just stand idly by, wringing hands and gnashing teeth, as punk-ass hedge funds have fun with them.

That's not going to happen.







< Message edited by Edwynn -- 7/21/2013 6:13:11 AM >

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