Yachtie
Posts: 3593
Joined: 1/18/2012 Status: offline
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quote:
ORIGINAL: JeffBC quote:
ORIGINAL: Yachtie My first problem revolves around "likely man-made". Perhaps that's 20% man-made, or 80% man-made. Could be 100% man-made, or could even be zero. Now, I do not subscribe to zero. Nor do I to 100%. But neither can or do I subscribe to anything in between. I know not where to put my subscription. You and I are in agreement here. In addition, I'd prefer to avoid the hysteria bell also... as would the actual scientists involved (if you go read their websites many of them decry the reblogging that happens afterwards which always sensationalizes the findings). We are also in agreement that it'd be nice if the science could be let to proceed with a minimum of political theatrics. The only problem is... that happened... and a 92% consensus was reached. Now what? By the way, there is a website where a bunch of actual climate scientists hang out. If you're interested I'll try to dig it up. They would be able to answer your question "how much is man-made". Of course, you're not going to get some blog answer from them. The answers tend to be detailed and nuanced. That, more than anything was what really threw me over into the 100% believer category. The general tone of the conversation was just so ... well ... pragmatic. How close to 2+2=4 does science say we are in this respect? 2+2=4 is not a science question, it's a math question. They are not even remotely the same thing. Math can deal in absolutes because it is an entirely constructed and artificial system. It makes sense because it was created to make sense. Reality is a bit more squirrely. quote:
Can science even quantify such a question? In the absolute sense, no. But science can provide things like "confidence intervals" and "repeatable test data" and the like. And whatever science does provide, I'll remind you again it managed to produce the internet we are sharing this conversation over. It must be at least somewhat useful. ]As to my having a dog in this fight, well I better damn well. I live here too. My Jesus quip was tongue in cheek. My bad. I have a tendency to take things literally. First, the internet. The Internet, like anything man-made, is a product of engineering. What science is attempting to do in this discussion is not engineering. It's more akin to medicine and the slow, arduous unraveling of the human mystery. So much we do not know. The more we learn, so it seems, the more we do not know. "2+2=4 is not a science question, it's a math question. They are not even remotely the same thing. Math can deal in absolutes because it is an entirely constructed and artificial system. It makes sense because it was created to make sense. Reality is a bit more squirrely." Bingo! Reality is quite squirrely. But the point of 2+2=4 is not one of math, but an answer within reality that works. 2+2=4, like gravity, is. I do not think the consensus you point to is close enough to such reality to hang one's hat on. There is a problem, so we are told. Therefore we need a solution. Exactly what is the problem? Both the problem and answer is one of consensus. Within this discussion, I find consensus to contain a bit of Voodoo. edit: One thing I have a problem with climate scientists is over modeling. Hell, the climate is as uncertain as economics and even that cannot be modeled correctly. Unlike other sciences, like chemistry and physics where modeling can be quite precise, modeling here is so imprecise that we have to resort to consensus. Given our history at economics, I'll not hang my hat on any climate consensus.
< Message edited by Yachtie -- 9/4/2013 7:58:58 PM >
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“We all know it’s going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money.” - Jim Cramer, CNBC “Those who ‘abjure’ violence can only do so because others are committing violence on their behalf.” - George Orwell
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