RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (Full Version)

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mnottertail -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 9:35:57 AM)

It isnt the nucleation that anyone gives a fuck about. Nobody gives the glimmer of a fuck about the mechanism, regarding the warming.

I read all the articles.

The effect is short lived, the temp changes are lagging and dropping from what should be the svennie effect were he accurate.

It is kitchen table fusion.

And my prior link quoted the guy who came up with the question of global warming in 1957. When swennie can correllate to all the conditions back to 57 we will have another read.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=708

between 1970 and 1985 the cosmic ray flux, although still behaving similarly to the temperature, in fact lags it and cannot be the cause of its rise. Thus changes in the cosmic ray flux cannot be responsible for more than 15% of the temperature increase.

from my previous link. we do not have agreement on many issues, size of hike portion of hike and causality. It aint just muons.




DomKen -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 10:07:19 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

The first results from the lab's CLOUD ("Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets") experiment published in Nature today confirm that cosmic rays spur the formation of clouds through ion-induced nucleation. Current thinking posits that half of the Earth's clouds are formed through nucleation. The paper is entitled Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation.

And the actual conclusion of the actual experiment was that they were wrong and the experiment did not account for the aerosols that are big enough to form clouds. Did you not even bother reading the links I provided?

Even the papers abstract says the experiment was not a success.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1635/2010/acp-10-1635-2010.html

And for anyone actually interested here is the whole study (strange how it is available contrary to certain claims)
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1635/2010/acp-10-1635-2010.pdf




Yachtie -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 10:14:23 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

Even the papers abstract says the experiment was not a success.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1635/2010/acp-10-1635-2010.html



Didn't say it was a failure either, as, "However in order to quantify the conditions under which ion processes become significant, improvements are needed in controlling the experimental variables and in the reproducibility of the experiments. Finally, concerning technical aspects, the most important lessons for the CLOUD design include the stringent requirement of internal cleanliness of the aerosol chamber, as well as maintenance of extremely stable temperatures (variations below 0.1 °C"


The experiment was incomplete.

Your bias is showing, Ken.





mnottertail -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 10:37:03 AM)

and in the reproducibility of the experiments. . .

By its very definition, this experiment is a failure.

Kitchen fusion.




Phydeaux -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 11:11:57 AM)

I don't have any more time to post at the moment.

I had occassion back in the 90's to examine the raw data of the land based temperature reporting station - and I noticed the discrepancy between the raw data and the corrected data. It was one of the things that triggered my interest in the area. While my original copy of the NASA data is long gone, it is still possible to find other people that picked up the same observation.

An area and distance weighted analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends, is co-authored by Anthony Watts of California, Evan Jones of New York, Stephen McIntyre of Toronto, Canada, and Dr. John R. Christy from the Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Alabama, Huntsville

The new improved assessment, for the years 1979 to 2008, yields a trend of +0.155C per decade from the high quality sites, a +0.248 C per decade trend for poorly sited locations, and a trend of +0.309 C per decade after NOAA adjusts the data. This issue of station siting quality is expected to be an issue with respect to the monitoring of land surface temperature throughout the Global Historical Climate Network and in the BEST network.

Other findings include, but are not limited to:

· Statistically significant differences between compliant and non-compliant stations exist, as well as urban and rural stations.

· Poorly sited station trends are adjusted sharply upward, and well sited stations are adjusted upward to match the already-adjusted poor stations.

· Well sited rural stations show a warming nearly three times greater after NOAA adjustment is applied.


Regarding CERN and the "this doesn't necessarily duplicate whats happening in the real world".


"It’s so transparently favourable to what the Danes have said all along that I’m surprised the warmists’ house magazine Nature is able to publish it, even omitting the telltale graph.



A graph they’d prefer you not to notice. Tucked away near the end of online supplementary material, and omitted from the printed CLOUD paper in Nature, it clearly shows how cosmic rays promote the formation of clusters of molecules (“particles”) that in the real atmosphere can grow and seed clouds. In an early-morning experimental run at CERN, starting at 03.45, ultraviolet light began making sulphuric acid molecules in the chamber, while a strong electric field cleansed the air of ions. It also tended to remove molecular clusters made in the neutral environment (n) but some of these accumulated at a low rate. As soon as the electric field was switched off at 04.33, natural cosmic rays (gcr) raining down through the roof of the experimental hall in Geneva helped to build clusters at a higher rate. How do we know they were contributing? Because when, at 04.58, CLOUD simulated stronger cosmic rays with a beam of charged pion particles (ch) from the accelerator, the rate of cluster production became faster still. The various colours are for clusters of different diameters (in nanometres) as recorded by various instruments. The largest (black) took longer to grow than the smallest (blue). This is Fig. S2c from supplementary online material for J. Kirkby et al., Nature, 476, 429-433, © Nature 2011"


[image]local://upfiles/11137/E235E6E698444AB5AA2911D64D52DAF7.jpg[/image]


Look at the pretty picture. At 4:33 they turned off the electric field and cosmic radiation starts producing nucleation clusters. They later add more radiation of the types "Svennie" suggest and the nucleation goes through the roof"

"Svennie" said these particles caused cloud formation. Cern tested the hypothesis- and lo and behold these particles cause cloud formation.

They tested Svennie's hypothesis - and *confirmed* it.

Interesting discussion of the result:http://www.wanliss.com/2011/09/cern-clouds-the-future-for-global-warming-alarmists/


Requoting the study:

Kirby et al. find that the net result of the published experimental results, is that: “Ground-level GCR ionization substantially increases the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid and sulphuric acid–ammonia particles, by between twofold and tenfold or more, provided that the nucleation rate lies below the limiting ion-pair production rate.”

. But just to be even clearer, in plain English, what this means is that for the most part it appears that galactic cosmic rays significantly increase the formation of cloud nucleation, the formation of a seed about which vapor can condense, perhaps orders of magnitude more than previously known.

“We find that atmospherically relevant ammonia mixing ratios of 100 parts per trillion by volume, or less, increase the nucleation rate of sulphuric acid particles more than 100–1,000-fold.” and “Ion-induced nucleation [cosmic ray action] will manifest itself as a steady production of new particles [molecular clusters] that is difficult to isolate in atmospheric observations because of other sources of variability but is nevertheless taking place and could be quite large when averaged globally over the troposphere [the lower atmosphere].”

Yeah.. like I said.. tell me where this says Svennie was wrong.




Phydeaux -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 11:22:38 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail

It isnt the nucleation that anyone gives a fuck about. Nobody gives the glimmer of a fuck about the mechanism, regarding the warming.

I read all the articles.

The effect is short lived, the temp changes are lagging and dropping from what should be the svennie effect were he accurate.


Obviously you haven't read the articles, because the effect is *not short lived* (One of the criticisms is that the counterclaim researches didn't look long enough), and the temperature changes are positive (2W/m2)

So get back with me when you actually like.. read some research.
.




Phydeaux -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 11:38:20 AM)

Oh and one last bit.

The american meteorological society discounted the theory of global warming by CO2 because infrared spectrum absorbed by CO2 are ALREADY absorbed by water vapor.




Phydeaux -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 11:44:40 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

The first results from the lab's CLOUD ("Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets") experiment published in Nature today confirm that cosmic rays spur the formation of clouds through ion-induced nucleation. Current thinking posits that half of the Earth's clouds are formed through nucleation. The paper is entitled Role of sulphuric acid, ammonia and galactic cosmic rays in atmospheric aerosol nucleation.

And the actual conclusion of the actual experiment was that they were wrong and the experiment did not account for the aerosols that are big enough to form clouds. Did you not even bother reading the links I provided?

Even the papers abstract says the experiment was not a success.
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1635/2010/acp-10-1635-2010.html


Flat out lie. Provide a quote from the abstract.
quote:


And for anyone actually interested here is the whole study (strange how it is available contrary to certain claims)
http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/1635/2010/acp-10-1635-2010.pdf


And since that is not the whole study, you just proved my point. You have to go to Kirby's site (or one of a very few others) to get the complete study.




Phydeaux -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 11:54:49 AM)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1664662-gop-hearings-on-climate-change-may-threaten-entire-green-economy?source=email_rt_mc_related_1



[image]local://upfiles/11137/02DCCFFDA5604B93BAA694626886F9CD.jpg[/image]




Hillwilliam -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 11:55:01 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Oh and one last bit.

The american meteorological society discounted the theory of global warming by CO2 because infrared spectrum absorbed by CO2 are ALREADY absorbed by water vapor.

CO2 and Water vapor both absorb in the IR region of the spectrum.
The absorption curves are, however, different. Some folks also don't seem to understand that just because 2 substances absorb in the same area of the spectrum doesn't mean they don't add to each other's effect.

If substance A absorbs the 560 NM wavelength and substance B does as well, that doesn't mean that if A is present, B will be negligible.

I made a living at spectroscopy for quite a few years.


Also
From the website of the American Meteorological Society.

"Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal, according to many different kinds of evidence. Observations show increases in globally averaged air and ocean temperatures, as well as widespread melting of snow and ice and rising globally averaged sea level. Surface temperature data for Earth as a whole, including readings over both land and ocean, show an increase of about 0.8°C (1.4°F) over the period 1901─2010 and about 0.5°C (0.9°F) over the period 1979–2010 (the era for which satellite-based temperature data are routinely available). Due to natural variability, not every year is warmer than the preceding year globally. Nevertheless, all of the 10 warmest years in the global temperature records up to 2011 have occurred since 1997, with 2005 and 2010 being the warmest two years in more than a century of global records. The warming trend is greatest in northern high latitudes and over land. In the U.S., most of the observed warming has occurred in the West and in Alaska; for the nation as a whole, there have been twice as many record daily high temperatures as record daily low temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century."Climate is always changing. However, many of the observed changes noted above are beyond what can be explained by the natural variability of the climate. It is clear from extensive scientific evidence that the dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide. The most important of these over the long term is CO2, whose concentration in the atmosphere is rising principally as a result of fossil-fuel combustion and deforestation. While large amounts of CO2 enter and leave the atmosphere through natural processes, these human activities are increasing the total amount in the air and the oceans. Approximately half of the CO2 put into the atmosphere through human activity in the past 250 years has been taken up by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere, with the other half remaining in the atmosphere. Since long-term measurements began in the 1950s, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has been increasing at a rate much faster than at any time in the last 800,000 years. Having been introduced into the atmosphere it will take a thousand years for the majority of the added atmospheric CO2 to be removed by natural processes, and some will remain for thousands of subsequent years."

ETA source. http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2012climatechange.html




mnottertail -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 11:57:09 AM)

asswipe spewed by an asswipe is as relevant as your proof of 172 IRS collusion visits with Obama.

It is asswipe by a run of the mill nobody asswipe.

Unless you are saying that nutsuckers are driving the global warming 'hysteria'.

That would mean that they were against it, before they were for it.




Phydeaux -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 12:47:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Hillwilliam

quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Oh and one last bit.

The american meteorological society discounted the theory of global warming by CO2 because infrared spectrum absorbed by CO2 are ALREADY absorbed by water vapor.





CO2 and Water vapor both absorb in the IR region of the spectrum.
The absorption curves are, however, different. Some folks also don't seem to understand that just because 2 substances absorb in the same area of the spectrum doesn't mean they don't add to each other's effect.

If substance A absorbs the 560 NM wavelength and substance B does as well, that doesn't mean that if A is present, B will be negligible.

I made a living at spectroscopy for quite a few years.

True. But not the whole story. The question is there a significant change in the energy radiated?

Does our atmosphere already absorb the spectra in question?
Does changing the CO2 concentration materially alter emission.
Recent Nasa research said no - that climatologists need to revisit the co2 contribution.




Phydeaux -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 12:48:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mnottertail
Unless you are saying that nutsuckers are driving the global warming 'hysteria'.


Yes. That is exactly what I am saying.




Hillwilliam -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 1:02:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


True. But not the whole story. The question is there a significant change in the energy radiated?

Does our atmosphere already absorb the spectra in question?
Does changing the CO2 concentration materially alter emission.
Recent Nasa research said no - that climatologists need to revisit the co2 contribution.


There is not a significant change in energy radiated from the planet, there is a change in energy absorbed by the atmosphere.

Does changing CO2 Concentration measurably absorb total absorption? yes.

When working with gas mixtures, (let's keep it simple and have only 2)
If Gas A has absorption A' and Gas B has absorption of B', a mixture of Gasses A and B will always have a higher absorption than A or B alone. (it will, however sometimes be a tiny bit below A'+B'

That means that adding any greenhouse gas while leaving the others the same will change the absorption in the IR region of the spectrum in a positive direction.

There seems to be some confusion about the word absorption.

Substances can be Opaque to a given wavelength (absorbing all), Transparent to a given wavelength (transmitting all) or Translucent (absorbing a certain percentage).
To confuse things even more, even if a substance is opaque to a given wavelength, it can be translucent below certain concentrations.

Think of liquid water. It absorbs visible light. DAFUQ? you say I can see thru it.
It takes a lot of water. Go deep enough in totally pure water and there will be zero light transmission.





VideoAdminRho -> RE: MIT Prof: Global Warming is Religion - not science (9/5/2013 1:24:06 PM)

Some posts have been pulled. If your post was removed and you did not receive a Gold Letter, it was because you replied to or quoted a removed post.




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