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njlauren -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/9/2014 11:57:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

quote:



And the Forbes, Post, op-ed is not backed up by facts. It is simply the assertion of a guy who makes a living working for the oil industry. And has been explained to you before if it is snowing more over Antarctica it is because the air over the continent has gotten substantially warmer.



Wrong and wrong. The op-ed you claim isn't backed up by facts directly quotes data at the national snow & ice data center (as I posted).

And you saying its snowing in antartica - without any science to support it is a complete waste of breathe.
You might as well be saying "martians delivered it". Post a study or two that says the increased snow is caused by increased temperatures and I'll read it.

MOST people think that the difference is caused by the polar vortex shrinking, not by the change in temperature.




Basic piece of science, which given you come from the bible belt where science isn't allowed, doesn't surprise me you don't know it. When the temperatures get below a certain point, you get less and less snow, for the very real reason that the colder the air, the less moisture it can hold. Ever notice that the tropics gets a lot more rain then we we in temperate zones? That the really heavy rainstorms tend to occur in the summer? Ever notice a little thing called dew point, that when the air temperature drops after a warm,humid day, you get dew, which means that at the lower temperature, the moisture that can stay in the air at the higher temperature, becomes 100% humidity and causes condensation?

Antartica actually gets relatively little snow, the reason there is so much is that what does fall, doesn't melt. If antartica is seeing more snow, it means it is warmer.

The other problem with your little tirade, like Elmer Fudd the farmer getting one over on the city slickers with "darn, it is 12 below zero, yep, global warming' is that climate change can cause all kinds of freak things, like the arctic vortex. Al Gore was a fucking moron for using the term global warming, while global temperatures have continued to climb (this last year was one of the warmest on record globally), the actual weather is going to go all over the place, global warming is as likely to cause freak cold snaps as warm ones, and so forth.




Phydeaux -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 12:00:44 AM)

um.. . do you think the northwest passage was never ice free before.

I know alarmists often do. But its not true.
The 92% figure is widely debunked. In fact some scientist complained about being included in that number. Google that.

The guy that said he was a skeptic -never was. And you'll have to provide a quote on the hockey stick cuz thats just hokum.

Look forward to it.


And for the record, I'm well familiar with dew points; hygrometers; enthalpy.

It is *you* guys that say that global warming must be responsible for more snow. The interior areas are known to have almost continuuous period of diamond dusting for days on end.

Seems to me if it only snows 2 days in three - you can have significant additional snow if it snows every day. But thats just me with only an "elementary" understanding.

Now, I'm not so bold as to say I know *why* the anarctic is getting more snow. Certainty in the absence of data is the province of you alarmists.

I merely point out you have no studies to say *why* there is more snow. And in fact, not too long ago you guys were saying there was less snow and ice in the anarctic - in contravention of fact.





njlauren -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 12:01:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Steven Goddard of the Real Science blog has the goods on Time magazine. From the 1974 Time article “Another Ice Age?”:

Scientists have found other indications of global cooling. For one thing there has been a noticeable expansion of the great belt of dry, high-altitude polar winds —the so-called circumpolar vortex—that sweep from west to east around the top and bottom of the world.

And guess what Time is saying this week? Yup:

But not only does the cold spell not disprove climate change, it may well be that global warming could be making the occasional bout of extreme cold weather in the U.S. even more likely. Right now much of the U.S. is in the grip of a polar vortex, which is pretty much what it sounds like: a whirlwind of extremely cold, extremely dense air that forms near the poles. Usually the fast winds in the vortex—which can top 100 mph (161 k/h)—keep that cold air locked up in the Arctic. But when the winds weaken, the vortex can begin to wobble like a drunk on his fourth martini, and the Arctic air can escape and spill southward, bringing Arctic weather with it. In this case, nearly the entire polar vortex has tumbled southward, leading to record-breaking cold.

Yep. So polar vortexes are signs of global warming and global cooling.

But, more importantly:

Arrhenious proposed global warming due to carbon dioxide in 1870.
Why is it .. exactly.. that it didn't happen in 1870?

Or if global warming is right, why exactly did TIME (and scientists of that time think we were at the outset of global cooling? Clearly scientists then did not believe global warming.

But the underlying cause has been the same - constantly increasing global emissions...


The whole new ice age bs was never accepted science, Time magazine made a big deal about it, but even at the time most scientists scoffed at it. It had about the same shelf life as cold fusion back in the early 90's, when two clowns claimed to have done fusion in a jar on a desk...turned out to be extremely poor experimental method....and the whole new ice age hype died in about 15 minutes, whereas global climate change is supported by most scientists, and the ones denying it generally get a lot of money from people like the Koch brothers.




njlauren -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 12:16:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

um.. Dude.. do you think the northwest passage was never ice free before.

I know alarmists often do. But its not true.
The 92% figure is widely debunked. In fact some scientist complained about being included in that number. Google that.

The guy that said he was a skeptic -never was. And you'll have to provide a quote on the hockey stick cuz thats just hokum.

Look forward to it.


The northwest passage obviously was ice free at some point, that wasn't my point. My point is that in 30 years, we have gone from the northwest passage being solidly frozen all year long, to it becoming navigable.....I don't know if you understand natural climate cycles, but it takes roughly 20,000 years to go from being in an ice age to the warmest point, it is a slow process in our terms, and 30 years is nothing...my point being, that a)the ice melting to where it is navigable is not a freak occurance of 1 warm summer, it represents a trend and 2)the fact that it happened in 30 years, not 300 or 3,000, means it is going way too fast for natural climate change. I have heard arguments from the deniers that in a warming cycle the rate of change accelerates, but studies of core samples from glaciers going back millions of years, shows that the pattern of natural cooling and warming happens at a relatively regular pace, it doesn't accelerate.....

The guy who I am referring to was funded by the Koch brothers. If he had not been a prominent skeptic, they wouldn't have funded him, they aren't exactly green types.....

In 2006, congress asked the national academy of science to validate the research in the hockey stick graph:
However, the U.S. National Academy of Science was asked by the U.S. Congress to assess the validity of temperature reconstructions, including the hockey stick. Their report on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (2006) states: 'The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1000 years.

This conclusion has subsequently been supported by an array of evidence that includes both additional large-scale surface temperature reconstructions and pronounced changes in a variety of local proxy indicators, such as melting on ice caps and the retreat of glaciers around the world'.

The report also says it has very high confidence that the last few decades of the 20th Century were warmer than any comparable period in the last 400 years. However, it added that climate estimates between the years AD 900 and AD 1600 were less reliable, and less still before AD 900. It called for more research to gain better proxy data for these periods. I also have read right wing sites who claim the study invalidated the graph, but it didn't, what the report said was that climate information between 900 and 1600 were not that reliable (in part because of fluctuations like the little ice age and such), but that the overall conclusions of the graph were correct, with some minor variations. The right wing says the graph was discredited, and a number of people listen to that because they want to, but every analysis of it not paid for by the oil companies comes to the same conclusions.

http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk/exploringclimatechange/controversy/hockeystickdebate.asp





Phydeaux -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 12:32:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: njlauren


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

um.. Dude.. do you think the northwest passage was never ice free before.

I know alarmists often do. But its not true.
The 92% figure is widely debunked. In fact some scientist complained about being included in that number. Google that.

The guy that said he was a skeptic -never was. And you'll have to provide a quote on the hockey stick cuz thats just hokum.

Look forward to it.


The northwest passage obviously was ice free at some point, that wasn't my point. My point is that in 30 years, we have gone from the northwest passage being solidly frozen all year long, to it becoming navigable.....I don't know if you understand natural climate cycles, but it takes roughly 20,000 years to go from being in an ice age


The northwest passage was ice free in the 20th century.

quote:




The guy who I am referring to was funded by the Koch brothers. If he had not been a prominent skeptic, they wouldn't have funded him, they aren't exactly green types.....



Again. Prove it. If its the guy I think you mean, he is well known to have conducted research on the *other* side of the equation as well.

Either way, agit prop doesn't change science, wouldn't you agree?

quote:



In 2006, congress asked the national academy of science to validate the research in the hockey stick graph:
However, the U.S. National Academy of Science was asked by the U.S. Congress to assess the validity of temperature reconstructions, including the hockey stick. Their report on Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years (2006) states: 'The basic conclusion of Mann et al. (1998, 1999) was that the late 20th century warmth in the Northern Hemisphere was unprecedented during at least the last 1000 years.

Which is a fancy way of saying that the hockey graph wasn't validated.

Further, the 17 years of warming at the end of the didn't exceed the warming of the middle warming period - and their choice of data carefully excludes the warming period known to have occurred around 900.

Kunkel 2006 etc found that the average temperature in 1999 was .7 degrees cooler than 1934.

Look. The IPCC itself conceded that AGW was occuring at one quarter the rate they thought it was.
They admitted they don't understand the role of aerosol formation. They also don't understand the role of co2 in the upper atmosphere.

Fundamentally. 16 years of warming is not a representative sample- especially now that we've had 17 years of pause. And the models flatly don't work.





DomKen -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 3:12:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

Great. Some facts we actually agree with - although of course you fudged the last one, since"all glaciers have melted" isnt remotely true. Some are quite happily permanently above the frost line. But we'll forgive a little ignorance since you're an alarmist.

So here's the second part of our little quiz, since you fell for it OH so nicely.

How many times in the history of the earth has the temperature increased 1 degree or more over 150 years.

unknown but likely only once, during the P-T extinction when almost all life on Earth died. Your fantasy that the last ice age ended abruptly with rapid warming is some dumbass lie fed to you by deniers.


quote:

For example - what was the rate of sea rise after the little ice age. Answer in feet please.

0. There was little if any retreat of terrestrial glaciers and global temperatures did not rise so there was neither more water or a significant increase in the temperature of the oceans. You got fed another lie.

Now please just link to whichever dumbass denier you think is going to prove your point since it is clear you never even get transcribing these lies right.





Tkman117 -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 9:02:39 AM)

I'm fairly certain this is the man she was referring to.

http://www.democracynow.org/2012/8/2/climate_skeptic_koch_funded_scientist_richard

Excuse me for the potentially biased source, it was the first one I found but it is an interview with the man himself.




Tkman117 -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 9:06:43 AM)

Also, where do you get this BS about the year 900? could you provide a source please?


Added: Nvm, found the data myself, my apologies.




Tkman117 -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 9:30:35 AM)

These are the findings found by Dr. Muller in his research. The information is all there for you to examine, these are just the results of their inquiry into climate sciences.

http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings




Phydeaux -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/10/2014 11:45:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tkman117

These are the findings found by Dr. Muller in his research. The information is all there for you to examine, these are just the results of their inquiry into climate sciences.

http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings



And here's a pretty fair rebuttal:
http://hro001.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/will-the-real-richard-muller-please-stand-up/




DomKen -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/11/2014 4:28:20 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tkman117

These are the findings found by Dr. Muller in his research. The information is all there for you to examine, these are just the results of their inquiry into climate sciences.

http://berkeleyearth.org/summary-of-findings



And here's a pretty fair rebuttal:
http://hro001.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/will-the-real-richard-muller-please-stand-up/

A long winded whine about Muller testifying about BEST's preliminary findings is a rebuttal?




Tkman117 -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/11/2014 2:27:12 PM)

A rebuttal with little to no contrary information? It's a writer who's picking apart every little detail the guy has said, that's not a rebuttal.




Phydeaux -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 2:32:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tkman117

A rebuttal with little to no contrary information? It's a writer who's picking apart every little detail the guy has said, that's not a rebuttal.


Obviously you didn't read to the end of the article. Most of the rebuttal information was in the last couple of paragraphs.

Frankly, you and DomKen assign great importance to a very mediocre man. Changing his point of view has been lucrative for him, getting him donations etc. But his BEST analysis left out several critical factors in its analysis.

The alarmists seems to think that there is a huge global conspiracy opposing AGW. And that the "conversion" of this man is somehow significant.

In point of fact, consensus on AGW is unraveling, and more and more people (including scientists) question the validity of it. Those on the side that are opposed to global warming don't have a cult of personality regarding their scientists. People are free to conduct research and believe what they will.




Phydeaux -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 2:39:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tkman117

Also, where do you get this BS about the year 900? could you provide a source please?


Added: Nvm, found the data myself, my apologies.


Funny how you presume its BS. Until you find out - lo and behold. Its true. As was the warming in Roman times. This kind of warming has happened again and again in our history.

That's why I say alarmists don't know shit about history.

I'm going to restate one of my earlier points, since DK, Hill, et.al decided to ignore it.

There are remnants of civilizations in 60 feet of water off the british coast. The fact that there were coastal settlements that far under water says the water has risen - Ie., ice has melted.

It wasn't caused by AGW.

Similarly, starting around the 8th century AD - we have records of "drowned" forests - that only appear at the very lowest of neap tides....

Those trees are likewise evidence of non AGW global warming.




DomKen -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 3:24:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tkman117

A rebuttal with little to no contrary information? It's a writer who's picking apart every little detail the guy has said, that's not a rebuttal.


Obviously you didn't read to the end of the article. Most of the rebuttal information was in the last couple of paragraphs.

I did. And there was no science in the last many paragraphs simply more bashing of the man not his conclusions.

quote:

Frankly, you and DomKen assign great importance to a very mediocre man. Changing his point of view has been lucrative for him, getting him donations etc. But his BEST analysis left out several critical factors in its analysis.

The alarmists seems to think that there is a huge global conspiracy opposing AGW. And that the "conversion" of this man is somehow significant.

Dr. Muller was about the last credible climate change skeptic so his examination of the data, paid for by the Koch's, was significant and his teams conclusions is significant.

quote:

In point of fact, consensus on AGW is unraveling, and more and more people (including scientists) question the validity of it. Those on the side that are opposed to global warming don't have a cult of personality regarding their scientists. People are free to conduct research and believe what they will.

Only in deniers lies.




DomKen -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 3:28:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux

There are remnants of civilizations in 60 feet of water off the british coast. The fact that there were coastal settlements that far under water says the water has risen - Ie., ice has melted.

It wasn't caused by AGW.

Similarly, starting around the 8th century AD - we have records of "drowned" forests - that only appear at the very lowest of neap tides....

Those trees are likewise evidence of non AGW global warming.

The water rose at the end of the last ice age. Anything under 60 feet of water on the British coast was drowned by the terrestrial glaciers melting or you are making it up. Which, since a google search found only crackpot claims, seems likely.




Tkman117 -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 4:48:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Phydeaux


quote:

ORIGINAL: Tkman117

A rebuttal with little to no contrary information? It's a writer who's picking apart every little detail the guy has said, that's not a rebuttal.


Obviously you didn't read to the end of the article. Most of the rebuttal information was in the last couple of paragraphs.

Frankly, you and DomKen assign great importance to a very mediocre man. Changing his point of view has been lucrative for him, getting him donations etc. But his BEST analysis left out several critical factors in its analysis.

The alarmists seems to think that there is a huge global conspiracy opposing AGW. And that the "conversion" of this man is somehow significant.

In point of fact, consensus on AGW is unraveling, and more and more people (including scientists) question the validity of it. Those on the side that are opposed to global warming don't have a cult of personality regarding their scientists. People are free to conduct research and believe what they will.


I actually did read the entire article, where is said "information" that you are referring to? There's nothing scientific there, just more ranting.

So what makes him mediocre? Have you done personal research that has provided evidence to the contrary? Honestly, just because he changed his stance due to his research hardly makes him mediocre. It makes him a scientist who follows the evidence and reaches a logical conclusion.

And what scientists are now questioning the validity of it? I'd honestly like to see some references. People are allowed to read and analyze the data researchers find themselves as much as they want, and by analyzing it they can understand how people reach those conclusions themselves. I can provide sources upon request.

Plus it's hardly a cult, a cult by definition is: "a system of religious veneration and devotion directed toward a particular figure or object." - From google

You should know that I'm in school for Environmental sciences and Resource management, and a part of that schooling is learning WHY climate change is happening and WHAT the data is that provides such a conclusion. The scientists hardly say the world is warming and people believe it, these days people need evidence and there is plenty of that. Although you seem to be projecting this concept considering your own religion does just that but with god in the place of the words "global warming."

And you're right, there are warming and cooling periods. The little ice age is a good example of cooling. Not to mention the civilizations under 60 feet of water is, while true, does not simply imply water levels have risen. There are many more forces at work than simple water rising, take a geomorphology class, it'll tell you all you need to know about Marine environments, Glacial melting and deposition, and other processes.

So these drowned trees are proof of non AGW global warming? Are you sure you've even done all your research? Because according to this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Submerged_forest#cite_note-7, forests can also be submerged by Marine transgression. Could you provide a reference to the forest you are referring to?




Phydeaux -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 6:34:44 PM)

I said he was mediocre because, yes I read his best research. I noticed two immediate flaws. I read his work when it came out what 2 years ago? Read it and said. Meh. He left out x and y - and promptly ignored him.

quote:


Although you seem to be projecting this concept considering your own religion


Oh please do quote me where I said anything of the kind.

So far you've lecture me that no warming occured around 900. You don't seemed to know about the warming that occurs every roughly 500,000 years.
You have given no evidence of knowing about the Roman warming.

So given that there have been several warming periods in the last 2000 years - tell me something. How do you differentiate between a hypothetical "AGW" caused by CO2 - and one of these other kinds of warming.

Or better yet - a statistical aberration?





Phydeaux -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 6:40:42 PM)

Many people derided my point of view that those anarctic researchers were not really on a science expedition.

Once upon a time I had sources that showed the number of tourists, the cost to rent the russian vessel etc. But since I didn't think there was any real dispute about it. I didn't make a particular effort to retain. So digging up the docs would have required effort.

Fortunately, some others noted - and just in time another article on that ship of fools



In an article by Jack Kelly: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2014/01/12/ship_of_fools_in_the_antarctic_121200.html


In the mega-bestseller of the 15th century, “Das Narrenschiff,” Swiss lawyer Sebastian Brant satirized the pretensions, delusions and follies of his day through descriptions of passengers on a ship bound for “Narragonia.”

Brant’s depiction of humanity as a ship of fools sailing without rudder or compass captured the imagination, inspiring a painting by Hieronymous Bosch, a song by the Grateful Dead.

So when the research ship Akademik Shokalskiy got stuck in the ice about 40 miles from Antarctica, some who knew the purpose of its voyage dubbed it the “Ship of Fools.”

“It would take a heart of stone not to laugh,” said British journalist Leo McKinstry.

Aboard the vessel were 22 scientists headed by Chris Turney, a professor of climate change at the University of New South Wales, four journalists and 26 tourists.

By comparing their measurements with those taken by Australian explorer Sir Douglas Mawson in 1913, they hoped “to prove the East Antarctic ice sheet is melting,” noted the Australian, a newspaper in Sydney.

It was “a pseudo-scientific expedition,” the director of the French Polar Institute told Agence France Presse.

“The debacle in the Antarctic ice is probably the largest setback for global warming campaigners since the Climategate scandal in 2009,” said the (London) Financial Times.


There’s more sea ice around Antarctica than at any time since the U.S. Snow and Data Center began keeping records in 1978.


“Mawson’s ship was never icebound,” the Australian noted.

The buildup of Antarctic sea ice doesn’t disprove the theory of anthropogenic (man-made) global warming. But it sure casts doubt on computer models which said the ice is disappearing.

Antarctic sea ice has been growing for 35 years, but as he awaited rescue, Prof. Turney insisted it was melting. If what he saw contradicted his climate model, his eyes must be lying.

Maybe he was just trying to protect his business interests. Prof. Turney is a founder of Carbonscape, a company whose profitability depends on the willingness of people to pay enormous sums to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It was warmer in Antarctica Monday than in Chicago, where a record low temperature for Jan. 6 was set. Record lows were set from Minnesota to Florida this week.

The big chill was caused by a “polar vortex,” an area of low pressure which brings Arctic air much farther south than usual. This is weather, not climate, but the icy temperatures don’t enhance the credibility of alarmists who claim the planet is warming dangerously.

There were more record lows than highs in the United States last year, for the first time since 1993. For the 17th consecutive year, global temperatures were lower than in 1998. Arctic sea ice expanded by about 50 percent, confounding predictions the Arctic would be ice-free by the summer of 2013.

Warming in the Arctic could have caused the polar vortex, alarmists claimed. But no evidence supports them.

“Polar vortices have been around forever,” said Princeton physicist Will Happer. “They have almost nothing to do with more CO2 in the atmosphere.”

“How can anyone claim that a rapidly warming Arctic would produce record cold air?” asked Steven Goddard, publisher of the RealScience blog, who notes the Arctic is colder now than it was 70 years ago.

Time Magazine was among those claiming global warming caused the polar vortex. The polar vortex indicates a new ice age approaches, Time had said in 1974.

Time was wrong then, too, but cooling was the way to bet. Periods of relative warmth have been so rare geologists call them “interglacial.”

Last year was the fourth warmest (after 1998, 2010 and 2005) since satellites began measuring global temperatures in 1979. But 2013 was just 0.406 degrees Celsius (0.731 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than 1979. The warmest year since 1979 (1998) was just 1.39 degrees F warmer than the coolest (1984).

It was warmer in medieval times, a Swedish study in December confirmed. The Medieval Warm Period (950-1250 AD) and the Roman Warm Period (250 BC-400 AD) were happy times for humanity. The big chill reminds us it’s cold that kills.

Temperatures fluctuate. They’ve been higher than the 30-year average in 17 years since 1979, lower in 19. But the planet isn’t warming appreciably. Soon we may wish it were. Periods between ice ages have lasted about 11,000 years, on average. Our “interglacial” began 11,000 years ago.

Jack Kelly is a columnist for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and The Blade of Toledo, Ohio.




DomKen -> RE: 0 + 0 (1/12/2014 7:12:16 PM)

The above is a classic Gish Gallop. Throw out many many lies and then anyone who knows the real science must take much more time, and lines of text, to debunk each lie which means the casual observer either doesn't read the entire debunking or the Galloper can seize upon any lie left undebunked.





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