What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (Full Version)

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kalikshama -> What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (2/28/2014 8:45:27 PM)

I heard an in depth story about the situation in Ukraine, Crimea, and Russia today and am very curious myself to the answer to this question:

What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine?

That question has grown more urgent this week.

Today, Ukraine’s new interior minister is accusing Russia of “military invasion and occupation,” saying Russian troops have taken up positions at two airports and a Coast Guard base in the Ukrainian region of Crimea.

Yesterday, armed men overran the Crimean parliament and raised a Russian flag over the building.

Russian officials, including President Vladimir Putin, have remained largely silent about Ukraine, though Ukraine’s ousted president Victor Yanukovich fled there last week.

Yanukovich spoke to reporters today, insisting he is still the legitimate president of the country, and that he intends to “keep fighting for the future of Ukraine.”

He said he was not calling for military intervention from his Russian hosts, but when asked about Russia’s role in Ukraine, he said Russia “should and must act.”

Andrew Weiss, who was an adviser to both presidents Bill Clinton and George H.W. Bush on Ukraine and Russia, joins Here & Now’s Meghna Chakrabarti to discuss Russia’s intentions toward Ukraine.

Interview Highlights: Andrew Weiss

On Russia’s current stance toward Ukraine

“Russian official position is that Yanukovich remains the legitimate president, and that the new president took power by a coup d’etat. So the Russian government has not recognized the new government. They’ve withdrawn their ambassador, and what we’ve seen on the ground in Crimea over the past couple days are a very sort of chilling and interesting set of moves that seem to suggest, although there’s no firm proof, that the Russian government is basically trying to cut off part of Ukraine’s territory from the government in Kiev and say this part of Ukraine, the Crimea, is basically going to be autonomous. They’ll hold a referendum at the end of May that will somehow solidify that autonomous status, which is already part of the legal status of Crimea. And a cavalcade of prominent Russian politicians, including the famous nationalist leader [Vladimir] Zhirinovsky, have arrived on the ground in Crimea. So there’s kind of a serious geopolitical drama and political theater, all of which is very dangerous. And I’ll end here, because there are a lot more people in Ukraine today with guns than there were a week ago. It’s a very, very fluid situation.”

On international hesitancy to intervene

“Moscow has plenty of options. I think the problem is that the West has very few. So the Ukrainian government is now rushing around, trying to find international support. It’s a government that, in many ways, is just struggling to turn the lights on, having just named its interim government yesterday, and getting ready for presidential elections at the end of May. The U.S., the European governments are all expressing outrage and concern, but no one’s about to about to go to war for Crimea, and no one’s going to go to war to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The question is, can we get both sides, or all three sides, if we understand there are people in Crimea who may be acting independently, to sort of back off and avoid further confrontation. Ukraine nearly fell into civil war last week, we have to remember. The situation is incredibly delicate.”

Read more: http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2014/02/28/ukraine-russia-yanukovich




MrBukani -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/1/2014 5:48:36 PM)

pussy riot?




Aylee -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 6:22:59 AM)

If you like Crimea you can keep Crimea?




Politesub53 -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 7:22:24 AM)

Russia, The US, Europe and China all have a history of.. "defending (insert name here) interests". Its nothing new in the world of geo-politics.




OvidInDallas -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 7:53:01 AM)

I think we can trust Obama to guarantee peace in our time. He can assure us all that Putin has no more territorial ambitions and will honor future treaties. After all, the Sudetenland has always been a traditional part of Russia and splitting it off was always unfair. I'm just glad we have such an experienced and capable leader to guide US policy in these difficult times backed by such competent aides as John Kerry.




Politesub53 -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 8:19:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: OvidInDallas

I think we can trust Obama to guarantee peace in our time. He can assure us all that Putin has no more territorial ambitions and will honor future treaties. After all, the Sudetenland has always been a traditional part of Russia and splitting it off was always unfair. I'm just glad we have such an experienced and capable leader to guide US policy in these difficult times backed by such competent aides as John Kerry.


Welcome to the boards...... [8|]




Owner59 -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 8:40:42 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: OvidInDallas

I think we can trust Obama to guarantee peace in our time. He can assure us all that Putin has no more territorial ambitions and will honor future treaties. After all, the Sudetenland has always been a traditional part of Russia and splitting it off was always unfair. I'm just glad we have such an experienced and capable leader to guide US policy in these difficult times backed by such competent aides as John Kerry.





Well your shrub certainly handled putin (`s tacticals) with great skill.....lol



[image]http://livedoor.blogimg.jp/sizen_go/imgs/5/b/5be97c68.jpg[/image]



Sending in McGrampa to save Georgia from the ruskies.......that worked good.....


I`m hearing the lunatic fringe imagine how st. ronnie would have handled this......


By selling surface to air missiles to Iran?


And we won`t hear President Obama saying something pathetically subservient like "I looked the man in the eye.
I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”









OvidInDallas -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 9:49:06 AM)

Ah yes. Disapproval of Obama means that I must support Bush. I forgot to put on my team shirt before the match. Do go on, I enjoy hearing how your guy is good because you don't like a politician from the 80s or because he's just as bad as the guy who did the same thing for the other party. Also, the mocking Bush quotes thing is made even more funny by the laughable Obama quote in your signature. Fight on my blindly partisan friend. Fight on. Surely you can find a belief of mine that makes it okay to not think critically of your team.




Owner59 -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 11:59:24 AM)

Well,who else are we to compare the President with......?


Justin Bierber?[:D]



[8|]




TheHeretic -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 12:08:56 PM)

Carter is looking like the better example. In fact, I'd say Carter's reputation may be much improved by the Obama administration, before all is said and done.

God help us all.




Phydeaux -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 12:15:31 PM)

Actually comparing Obama to Justin Bierber is probably apt.

So, after a 90 minute tongue lashing by Obama .. about consequences... Putin laughs and invades. Revealing obama and the left once more to be clueless, ineffectual buffoons. The US - if it had any balls at all - should have sent military advisors - or contractors to Kiev. Should have dispatched a carrier to the Black Sea. You want to see the Soviet's backdown... lets engage in a little bit of force projection.

By failing to do so Obama telegraphed that his words were *empty* and he had no intention to do anything.

Pretty spot on article at American Thinker:

http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/03/01/putin-smashes-washingtons-cocoon/


Through the rose tinted lenses of a media community deeply convinced that President Obama and his dovish team are the masters of foreign relations, nothing poor Putin did could possibly derail the stately progress of our genius president. There were, we were told, lots of reasons not to worry about Ukraine. War is too costly for Russia’s weak economy. Trade would suffer, the ruble would take a hit. The 2008 war with Georgia is a bad historical comparison, as Ukraine’s territory, population and military are much larger. Invasion would harm Russia’s international standing. Putin doesn’t want to spoil his upcoming G8 summit, or his good press from Sochi. Putin would rather let the new government in Kiev humiliate itself with incompetence than give it an enemy to rally against. Crimea’s Tartars and other anti-Russian ethnic minorities wouldn’t stand for it. Headlines like “Why Russia Won’t Invade Ukraine,” “No, Russia Will Not Intervene in Ukraine,” and “5 Reasons for Everyone to Calm Down About Crimea” weren’t hard to find in our most eminent publications.

Nobody, including us, is infallible about the future. Giving the public your best thoughts about where things are headed is all a poor pundit (or government analyst) can do. But this massive intellectual breakdown has a lot to do with a common American mindset that is especially built into our intellectual and chattering classes. Well educated, successful and reasonably liberal minded Americans find it very hard to believe that other people actually see the world in different ways. They can see that Vladimir Putin is not a stupid man and that many of his Russian officials are sophisticated and seasoned observers of the world scene. American experts and academics assume that smart people everywhere must want the same things and reach the same conclusions about the way the world works.

How many times did foolishly confident American experts and officials come out with some variant of the phrase “We all share a common interest in a stable and prosperous Ukraine.” We may think that’s true, but Putin doesn’t.

We blame this in part on the absence of true intellectual and ideological diversity in so much of the academy, the policy world and the mainstream media. Most college kids at good schools today know many more people from different races and cultural groups than their grandparents did, but they are much less exposed to people who think outside the left-liberal box. How many faithful New York Times readers have no idea what American conservatives think, much less how Russian oligarchs do? Well bred and well read Americans live in an ideological and cultural cocoon and this makes them fatally slow to understand the very different motivations that animate actors ranging from the Tea Party to the Kremlin to, dare we say it, the Supreme Leader and Guide of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

As far as we can tell, the default assumption guiding our political leadership these days is that the people on the other side of the bargaining table (unless they are mindless Tea Party Republicans) are fundamentally reasonable people who see the world as we do, and are motivated by the same things that motivate us.


.
.
.

The big question of course, is what President Obama will take away from this experience. Has he lost confidence in the self-described (and self-deceived) ‘realists’ who led him down the primrose path with their empty happy talk and their beguiling but treacherous illusions? Has he rethought his conviction that geopolitics and strategy are relics of a barbarous past with no further relevance in our own happy day? Is he tired of being humiliated on the international stage? Is it dawning on him that he has actual enemies rather than difficult partners out there, and that they wish him ill and seek to harm him? (Again, we are not talking about the GOP in Congress.)



The price to pay for electing a buffoon.




Owner59 -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 12:23:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

Carter is looking like the better example. In fact, I'd say Carter's reputation may be much improved by the Obama administration, before all is said and done.

God help us all.


Did President Carter trick 4400 of the soldiers under his command into their deaths?(shrub)


Or sell surface to air missiles to the same terrorists that just killed 241 Marines and sailors ?(reagan)


Or coddle and forgive the terrorist behind the Lockerbie bombing that killed 178 Americans ? shrubagain)


Geez rich.....it`s hard to see exactly who`s side you`re on......


Not sure if it`s America`s..... or for which it stands.....




Owner59 -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 12:37:51 PM)

 The Presidents response to the lunatic fringe.......


http://www.politico.com/multimedia/video/2014/02/obama-heckled-on-nuclear-war-with-russia-at-dnc-event.html 




cloudboy -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 12:54:19 PM)

The IRAQ and AFGHAN wars have primed the USA to be more prudent and isolationist. The fact is we have little strategic interest in the Ukraine and little to gain by intervening. Plus, if we do intervene, it helps substantiate Moscow's claims that the opposition is simply a Western front.

My other view is that this is EUROPE's backyard and the European Union should take the lead and the USA should simply follow and support its allies.




Arturas -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 1:30:50 PM)

quote:

Well your shrub certainly handled putin (`s tacticals) with great skill.....lol







Sending in McGrampa to save Georgia from the ruskies.......that worked good.....


I`m hearing the lunatic fringe imagine how st. ronnie would have handled this......


By selling surface to air missiles to Iran?


And we won`t hear President Obama saying something pathetically subservient like "I looked the man in the eye.
I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”







Truth be known, President Bush was pushing hard for Georgia's full admission to NATO so it could be legitimately protected by the armed might all these nations, a effort that took too long and was pre-empted by Russian action before that process already in motion could be completed. That is how you handle Georgia, the only way one can, by being allies. This is what McWindyCity had a lot of time to do but he was too busy with McWindyCityCare and halting the pipeline and sucking up to the Russians, so too bad for the Ukraine that they have Mr. WindyCity, they don't even pretend to count on him. Fortunately for us, Windbag has learned not to draw red lines.




Arturas -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 1:33:28 PM)

quote:

The IRAQ and AFGHAN wars have primed the USA to be more prudent and isolationist. The fact is we have little strategic interest in the Ukraine and little to gain by intervening. Plus, if we do intervene, it helps substantiate Moscow's claims that the opposition is simply a Western front.

My other view is that this is EUROPE's backyard and the European Union should take the lead and the USA should simply follow and support its allies.



Bingo. The Bush approach, recognize the new government and admit the Ukraine into Nato overnight and then move ships, lots of ships, so it looks like a sure no-win to Putin.




Arturas -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 1:40:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Arturas

quote:

The IRAQ and AFGHAN wars have primed the USA to be more prudent and isolationist. The fact is we have little strategic interest in the Ukraine and little to gain by intervening. Plus, if we do intervene, it helps substantiate Moscow's claims that the opposition is simply a Western front.

My other view is that this is EUROPE's backyard and the European Union should take the lead and the USA should simply follow and support its allies.



Bingo. The Bush approach, recognize the new government and admit the Ukraine into Nato overnight and then move ships, lots of ships, so it looks like a sure no-win to Putin.


Libs have a view the world will live in peace if we remove our troops, reduce our military power in general and no longer look menacing. Unfortunately for presidents like Carter and Obama, the world is a dangerous place full of dangerous men and women who wait for openings and drive the knife home. Case in point, Iran thumbing it's nose at Carter and holding our embassy people until they see Reagan is elected and know the party is over. Case in point, Nazi Germany and how it was treated and coddled before launching the attack on Austria. The Ukraine is the new Austria and Putin is the new Reich Marshal.

But, Obama does have that Nobel Peace Prize he was awarded before taking office. Yes, peace through smiles, rather than strength, how noble.





DomKen -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 1:44:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Arturas

quote:

Well your shrub certainly handled putin (`s tacticals) with great skill.....lol







Sending in McGrampa to save Georgia from the ruskies.......that worked good.....


I`m hearing the lunatic fringe imagine how st. ronnie would have handled this......


By selling surface to air missiles to Iran?


And we won`t hear President Obama saying something pathetically subservient like "I looked the man in the eye.
I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”







Truth be known, President Bush was pushing hard for Georgia's full admission to NATO so it could be legitimately protected by the armed might all these nations, a effort that took too long and was pre-empted by Russian action before that process already in motion could be completed. That is how you handle Georgia, the only way one can, by being allies. This is what McWindyCity had a lot of time to do but he was too busy with McWindyCityCare and halting the pipeline and sucking up to the Russians, so too bad for the Ukraine that they have Mr. WindyCity, they don't even pretend to count on him. Fortunately for us, Windbag has learned not to draw red lines.

Actually W encouraged the Georgian attacks that led to the Russian invasion. Then he, being the pitiful useless coward that he is, he cut and ran abandoning them to Putin.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8281990.stm




LadyConstanze -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 2:13:18 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Arturas

Case in point, Nazi Germany and how it was treated and coddled before launching the attack on Austria.





Attack on Austria? I think you did dream again, while you slept through history lessons not your first disconnect from reality




Arturas -> RE: What Are Russia's Intentions Toward Ukraine? (3/2/2014 2:36:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: Arturas

quote:

Well your shrub certainly handled putin (`s tacticals) with great skill.....lol







Sending in McGrampa to save Georgia from the ruskies.......that worked good.....


I`m hearing the lunatic fringe imagine how st. ronnie would have handled this......


By selling surface to air missiles to Iran?


And we won`t hear President Obama saying something pathetically subservient like "I looked the man in the eye.
I found him to be very straightforward and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul; a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”







Truth be known, President Bush was pushing hard for Georgia's full admission to NATO so it could be legitimately protected by the armed might all these nations, a effort that took too long and was pre-empted by Russian action before that process already in motion could be completed. That is how you handle Georgia, the only way one can, by being allies. This is what McWindyCity had a lot of time to do but he was too busy with McWindyCityCare and halting the pipeline and sucking up to the Russians, so too bad for the Ukraine that they have Mr. WindyCity, they don't even pretend to count on him. Fortunately for us, Windbag has learned not to draw red lines.

Actually W encouraged the Georgian attacks that led to the Russian invasion. Then he, being the pitiful useless coward that he is, he cut and ran abandoning them to Putin.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8281990.stm



So, I waste my time following this link and it says nothing of the kind. My post is accurate.




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