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RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 6:20:21 PM   
njlauren


Posts: 1577
Joined: 10/1/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BitYakin

For example, Alabama points out that when the big floods hit the midwest, that people in California chided people for living in a flood plane, and it is the pot calling the kettle black. What he left out is that the federal government, thanks to pressure from both congressmen in that area and the river shipping industry, had the army corps of engineers reroute the mississippi, both to make it more navigable, and also ironically to reduce flooding in certain areas to make them more attractive to build houses..and what happened was they created an even bigger mess (by moving the river, they took away the natural means of the river to handle high water, and all the levees in the world won't stop it). Since then they have bought out people in the area they stupidly allowed to live there, and have let the river go back to more its natural banks.

I'd sure like to see some documentation of these claims, I have lived in st Louis for aprox 50 years.

fact is the flood you are referring to was a FREAK OF NATURE, the area you refer to being bought out had that happen all of THAT ONE TIME even though people had been living there for over 200 years

as for them letting the river go back to is more NATURAL course, where did you get THAT FROM?

Do some research, that storm in 1993 was considered a 'once in 500 year storm'. Since then, there have been two other major instances of flooding on a significant scale, one was 2008, the other I believe was 2010. In one post, I cited an article that talked about how they narrowed the ship channel around St. Louis that made the flooding worse,for example. I can remember reading articles where they actually diverted the flow of the mississippi, I have to go and do research, but the Army corps of engineers, ironically in the name of flood control, channelled the river away from its natural flow and it bit them in the ass, and they did later allow the water to go back to its natural course. As far as living in the area for 50 years, you mean you intimately keep track of Army Corps of engineering projects, you keep track of all the details of what goes on? I have lived in the area I live in for close to 50 years, as an adult for roughy 30 something years, and I can't tell you a 10th of what goes on......among other things,a program NOVA PBS did on the floods talked about the flooding and what happened and why, and some of it was man made.

(in reply to BitYakin)
Profile   Post #: 81
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 6:31:06 PM   
njlauren


Posts: 1577
Joined: 10/1/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: BamaD


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

quote:

ORIGINAL: BitYakin

For example, Alabama points out that when the big floods hit the midwest, that people in California chided people for living in a flood plane, and it is the pot calling the kettle black. What he left out is that the federal government, thanks to pressure from both congressmen in that area and the river shipping industry, had the army corps of engineers reroute the mississippi, both to make it more navigable, and also ironically to reduce flooding in certain areas to make them more attractive to build houses..and what happened was they created an even bigger mess (by moving the river, they took away the natural means of the river to handle high water, and all the levees in the world won't stop it). Since then they have bought out people in the area they stupidly allowed to live there, and have let the river go back to more its natural banks.

I'd sure like to see some documentation of these claims, I have lived in st Louis for aprox 50 years.

fact is the flood you are referring to was a FREAK OF NATURE, the area you refer to being bought out had that happen all of THAT ONE TIME even though people had been living there for over 200 years

as for them letting the river go back to is more NATURAL course, where did you get THAT FROM?

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2003-07-07/news/0307070177_1_higher-ground-valmeyer-great-flood

Which trumps the firsthand knowledge of those of us who have actually lived on the river.

Another source
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valmeyer,_Illinois


And still you would think firsthand knowledge would count for more, but I guess not in your world.


Firsthand knowledge is a funny thing, because it isn't always more accurate than things that come out of the fact. Eyewitness testimony to events is often all over the place in terms of accuracy, and people often report their perceptions rather than facts. You claim first hand knowledge, but the mississippi flood plain is huge and how big a region do you or others claiming first hand knowledge know? Maybe 20, 30 miles? I have heard the same thing from people telling me they don't get anything from the federal government, that they and the fellow citizens of the state not only pay for what they get, but they also subsidize everyone else (usually very true in rural and farm areas, that love to claim they are hard individualists when statistics show otherwise). What I am seeing from posters on here is pretty much what I would expect, they know these areas, have people who live there, and don't want to face the reality. People who live in the towns I mentioned in NJ have the same kind of thinking, they claim that it would be okay to live there if the government had done this, hadn't done that, when the reality is, the towns and housing should never have been allowed in the first place. In your case, it is that the storm was a freak storm, that there hasn't been any major flooding since then, or if they just made the levees bigger everything would be okay. THe problem with first hand accounts is they often are biased, those living on barrier islands and on the coast will say that it isn't so bad, that the risks aren't high, meanwhile 1.5 years after sandy large swaths of the NJ shore still have not been rebuilt, the devastation was that bad.

(in reply to BamaD)
Profile   Post #: 82
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 6:44:16 PM   
njlauren


Posts: 1577
Joined: 10/1/2011
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quote:

ORIGINAL: BitYakin

sooo what EXACTLY are you suggesting?

we ABANDON these areas?

"The hydrographic basin affected cover around 745 miles (1,199 km) in length and 435 miles (700 km) in width, totaling about 320,000 square miles (830,000 km2).[1] Within this zone, the flooded area totaled around 30,000 square miles "

really we should just ABANDON 30K square miles cause once every 100 years or so it floods?

PS. I live aprox 6 blocks from the river, when I was a kid we'd WALK down to the river at arsenel street climb over the flood wall and hang out
but my house WAS NOT AFFECTED IN THE LEAST


The point is not to totally abandon the flood plain, the flood plain in not homogeneous. Ever see a detail map showing potential flood activity? It kind of looks like a weather map, it generally shows areas of irregular lines, that show potential flood zones and the expected rates. With something like the river, if a town is up on a bluff, it could be safe from any foreseen kind of flooding, whereas a town that is right at the same level as the river and right on it would be at major risk. Using those maps, it is likely that the exclusionary zone for the area you mention would be a fraction of those 30,000 miles, in part because a)in a lot of that region, the population density is pretty small (obviously, St. Louis and its environs are a bit different than downstream bit). The flood plain area that is most at risk will be well known, and it is those areas that should be looked at. You aren't going to abandon St. Louis, but it might mean changing building codes and leaving an area near the river as an easement or building buildings where the first floor is parking only.

The whole point is not total risk aversion, that is idiotic, there is always risk, it is why we have insurance. On the other hand, if private insurance won't write coverage for an area or won't do it at feasible prices, what does that say about the risk? If it weren't for the federal government having flood insurance, you think those towns on the mississippi we are talking about would be able to get insurance? I doubt it, any private insurer would take one look at the risk, look at the data, and say no way. It is like being in hurricane alley or earthquake alley, in many of those places you cannot get insurance against hurricanes or earthquakes, because the risk is too high. If what you and Bama are saying is true, then leave it to the insurance companies to decide, wanna see how fast things would change?

(in reply to BitYakin)
Profile   Post #: 83
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:03:14 PM   
njlauren


Posts: 1577
Joined: 10/1/2011
Status: offline
Some citings for folks who claim that 1993 was a fluke, that nothing bad has happened since
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Mississippi_River_floodshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mississippi_River_floods

This one is a report on the floods on the river and how man made actions are making flooding worse. Among other things, when they build levees the land behind it, that still is a flood plain, is not considered as such by national flood insurance (anyone wanna guess why? Thing congressmen and senators from the states affected didn't make sure that this happened?), So they put up levees, make them higher, and behind them you have houses, shopping centers, businesses, etc, in the flood plains.

The article makes a good point, that it would be smart to leave the flood plains to farmland and have everything else out of the flood plain, the real cost isn't the flooded farm land, it is all the houses and buildings and infrstructure in the towns and cities that are the problem.Basically national flood insurance is letting them build on land that no insurance company would ever allow, and it is strictly political..and guess who pays for this stupidity? Myself and others who live in low risk areas to flood, we pay ridiculous prices to subsidize this kind of stupidity.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2535649/

THose who claim to live on the river and say 1993 was the big one should read the first couple of articles, plus this one, the floods in 2007 and 20011 were no jokes either, nor was the cost.

BTW, when the towns decided to move, who do you think paid for it? You got it, the federal government.

(in reply to njlauren)
Profile   Post #: 84
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:16:28 PM   
BitYakin


Posts: 882
Joined: 10/15/2005
Status: offline
why should I LOOK UP something I LIVED THREW...

was there possibly SOME flooding in 2008 and 2010 sure but nothing that even made LOCAL NEWS

reminds me of something my dad said when I was in Colorado, "its just laughable what people here call a RIVER"

as for you CITED, no you CLAIMED there was such an article, I saw NO LINK, no address I could copy paste to verify what you said...

did some small rivers flood, OF COURSE, I guarantee there is some minor flooding in missouri EVERY SPRING

people here understand there will be SOME FLOODING every year, but so far NOTHING on the scale of 1993

remember my basement got some water in it does not compare with WHOLE TOWNS getting washed away

(in reply to njlauren)
Profile   Post #: 85
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:20:22 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/opinion/sunday/egan-at-home-when-the-earth-moves.html?_r=0
25 dead and 90 still missing. When are we as a nation going to stop trying to put homes in areas prone to mudslides, wildfires or without enough fresh water simply because someone would like to live there?



I'm entirely unaware of any govt. agencies that are actively attempting to put people in landslide/tsunami/fire/lacking water/flood prone areas.

I am, on the other hand, well aware of owners of dirt, in areas they'd prefer to live (whether because it's affordable, provides opportunity for farming, it's idyllic, or has other advantages) who have been told their area is prone to landslide/tsunami/fire/lacking water/flood prone issues who, after multiple warnings, even when told "no insurance is available because of.......", still opt to live, move to or build in, near or within visible sight of these areas.

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 86
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:21:40 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: Yachtie


quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen

When are we as a nation going to stop trying to put homes in areas prone to mudslides, wildfires or without enough fresh water simply because someone would like to live there?



Something about that makes me ill.



Probably because it's fallacious, has no bearing in fact whatsoever and is, at best, ridiculous on the face of it.

(in reply to Yachtie)
Profile   Post #: 87
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:30:14 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/30/opinion/sunday/egan-at-home-when-the-earth-moves.html?_r=0
25 dead and 90 still missing. When are we as a nation going to stop trying to put homes in areas prone to mudslides, wildfires or without enough fresh water simply because someone would like to live there?


Why would anyone want to live in those areas?

Who are you to tell someone else they can't live there?

We pretty much agree it's not a wise thing to do, but there are an awful lot of unwise things that people do that we have no authority to prevent.

When someone takes a big risk and fails, I think that person bears the greatest responsibility to bear the consequence of their risk.

What's next though? Banning people from living in "Tornado Alley?" East Coast? Gulf Coast? Eastern borders of the Great Lakes?



Desi, when calamities such as the Oso (Snohomish County) disaster occur (here in Snohomish County or elsewhere), it is clearly the fault of the government. They should have known this was going to happen, the date or dates it was going to happen and....the government should pay (I'd imagine a reasonable number would be 7 - 10X of the investment put in by the homeowner).

Now....if they used asbestos in any of their interior ceiling coatings (whether asbestos was approved for ceiling coverage or not)....the numbers only go up.

That slides have occurred as recently as 2006 (and 7 times identically since 1902) in this same area is beside the point. This was ONE slide. The fact that, looking on Google Earth, you can see both where the 2006 slide occurred but, as importantly, how much it changed the course of the river AND that the hill was somewhat unstable, yet 3 days after the 2006 slide occurred, carpenters were building 2 new homes in the wake of the current slide, clearly proves that the government KNEW this slide would occur again and no doubt, the exact date it would occur again.

Ergo, it is the governments fault and everyone who built in a well known slide area should all be given a check for 3 million dollars.


(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 88
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:32:30 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: TheHeretic

First off, "we as a nation" aren't in the business of building homes. That's the old super-authoritarian liberal mindset screwing up perceptions of reality. This ain't a dictatorship, Dude.

Second, do please tell me of anyplace on the planet where Mama Nature doesn't have some means at hand of killing people, should the mood strike her?

Third, let's point out that the Northridge earthquake in LA happened on a fault nobody knew existed, until it busted loose hard, one morning, 20 years ago. How do you zone around that?


Yeah but....the government should pay.

(in reply to TheHeretic)
Profile   Post #: 89
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:34:03 PM   
LookieNoNookie


Posts: 12216
Joined: 8/9/2008
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quote:

ORIGINAL: kdsub

What a tragedy…but is there someone that should bear the blame?

Is it the government for ignoring the warning and issuing permits…Is it the people already living there that ignored the warnings…Is it the people who moved in or built new homes without investigating the hazards?

I just don’t know…If the local government is to blame and sued…then the people of the area must suffer all the more to pay off settlements out of tax revenue. It does no good to blame the dead and those living there may have taken their chances because the could not sell or afford to move.

I say… forget the blame…but move forward with local, state, and federal law to minimize tragedies like this in the future.

Butch


Bingo.

(in reply to kdsub)
Profile   Post #: 90
RE: Tragedy foretold but ignored - 3/30/2014 7:41:31 PM   
tj444


Posts: 7574
Joined: 3/7/2010
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quote:

ORIGINAL: DomKen
In this case the developers and the local government simply ignored the warnings that the hillside was a probable mudslide.

In BC if you drive the Sea to Sky Hwy from Vancouver to Whistler there are many dangerous spots where rocks and/or part of the mountain can fall on the hwy but they have sprayed gunite on those cliffs & slide prone areas.. I wonder if they had sprayed gunite over the most slide prone areas of the mountain in WA if that could have prevented this, or at least minimized the damage and deaths..

I have read that "FEMA reports that 75% of the states are disaster zones".. its really hard to find a "safe" place that I would want to live in..

I have also seen some vacant lots for sale in SoCal that were backing on to a fairly steep hill or cliff, if I owned a home or built on that kinda lot (assuming that the bldg. dept & engineers would approve building on it) I would be spraying gunite over the whole lot.. and it would be a monolithic concrete house too.. (which would survive hurricane, earthquakes, fires, floods, bugs)..

_____________________________

As Anderson Cooper said “If he (Trump) took a dump on his desk, you would defend it”

(in reply to DomKen)
Profile   Post #: 91
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