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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/1/2015 8:02:23 PM

GoddessManko

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
To the extent a currency is subject to any fundamentals it is the assessment or confidence in the labor force behind the currency hence as I mentioned in a prior post and that confidence is...as a store of wealth. (low inflation)

With currencies having no real backing, labor is all that is left.

Adam Smith capitalism at its finest.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/1/2015 9:16:06 PM

thishereboi

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

ORIGINAL: epiphiny43

Just another failure of the communist Muslim president as he socializes and Islamizes the leading free country of the world? He's so incompetent in his intentions, jobs are up, dollar is stronger, manufacturing (Though not those jobs as robots take over) is stronger, oil supply is up, prices are down, Real Estate is on a big bubble again, the country is prospering!

Wow. There should be a picture of you next to "troll."

I'm still trying to figure out which country he is talking about. Can't be the US because our president is a liberal christian. Of course there is always the possibility that he's really just that stupid and doesn't know who the POTUS is but that's just a guess.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 6:48:49 AM

Lucylastic

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Or Epiphiny was being sarcastic ........which is how i took it. Given Epiphinys posting history i think its liable to be just that.....of course some see sarcasm as trolling. But.....feh

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 6:54:00 AM

Musicmystery

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

The ONLY value for ANY currency, is...against other currencies.

This is correct. The Euro launched at .82 cents to the US dollar. Our purchasing power hasn't diminished, oil is down and the stock market is up. It's like fucking with the laws of physics at the moment, LOL.

No, it's not. Economies in fact have fundamentals that determine those currency evaluations.

To the extent a currency is subject to any fundamentals it is the assessment or confidence in the labor force behind the currency hence as I mentioned in a prior post and that confidence is...as a store of wealth. (low inflation)

With currencies having no real backing, labor is all that is left.

Much more than "to an extent."

"Real backing" is an artificial "fixed" number to a fluctuating reality. Decades ago, arbitragers figured that out, and used it to drive central banks to their knees, especially the Bank of England in the 60s, because by exploiting the difference between the "official" currency and the "official" price of gold, they could cash in on the discrepancy, forcing a country to lower its evaluation. The US dollar came under similar attack when Nixon (wisely) cut out Bretton Woods obligations in favor of the current float. Thus, it reflects reality--at least more closely, as it's still a managed float.

And Kirata is right--much of this discussion is focusing on exchange rates, i.e., the value of currencies relative to each other, vs. the valuation of currency.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 2:00:29 PM

MrRodgers

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

The ONLY value for ANY currency, is...against other currencies.

This is correct. The Euro launched at .82 cents to the US dollar. Our purchasing power hasn't diminished, oil is down and the stock market is up. It's like fucking with the laws of physics at the moment, LOL.

No, it's not. Economies in fact have fundamentals that determine those currency evaluations.

To the extent a currency is subject to any fundamentals it is the assessment or confidence in the labor force behind the currency hence as I mentioned in a prior post and that confidence is...as a store of wealth. (low inflation)

With currencies having no real backing, labor is all that is left.

Much more than "to an extent."

"Real backing" is an artificial "fixed" number to a fluctuating reality. Decades ago, arbitragers figured that out, and used it to drive central banks to their knees, especially the Bank of England in the 60s, because by exploiting the difference between the "official" currency and the "official" price of gold, they could cash in on the discrepancy, forcing a country to lower its evaluation. The US dollar came under similar attack when Nixon (wisely) cut out Bretton Woods obligations in favor of the current float. Thus, it reflects reality--at least more closely, as it's still a managed float.

And Kirata is right--much of this discussion is focusing on exchange rates, i.e., the value of currencies relative to each other, vs. the valuation of currency.

As I said and still maintain...there is NO other value for ANY currency. Ask the arbitrageurs.

BTW there is still vast Forex arbitrage, just ask Soros. Tell us all, where do we find the 'valuation' of the US dollar ?

The Dollar Value Is Measured by Exchange Rates:

The U.S. dollar is most easily measured by its exchange rate, which compares its value to other currencies. Currency exchange rates allow you to determine how much of one currency you can exchange for another. Exchange rates change every day because currencies are traded on the foreign exchange market, known as forex. A currency's forex value depends on a lot of factors, including central bank interest rates, the country's debt levels, and the strength of its economy. When these are strong, so is the value of the currency.

(i.e.,...speculation OR confidence in what, that country's labor force and what you get for that dollar, i.e., that labor force's ability to handle the debt, interest rates and the over all strength of the economy))

< Message edited by MrRodgers -- 1/2/2015 2:02:12 PM >

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 2:07:53 PM

Musicmystery

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Of course there's arbitrage, in every market...it's among the things that keeps markets stable. The opportunities, though, are in doing large volume to take advantage of small margins.

You've supported exactly my point above--people may look to exchange rates, but the exchange rates are a function of the relative valuation that goes into the value of the currency, not the value itself. It's used because usually what a consumer is looking for isn't the valuation but rather the relative purchasing power at the moment.

And if those valuations are wrong, those who believe this will weigh in with arbitrage, and either erase the temporary discrepancy or find out they were wrong. Today, in the age of nearly instantaneous market exchanges, arbitrage is difficult. It's a pretty stable market.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 3:08:22 PM

MrRodgers

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

Of course there's arbitrage, in every market...it's among the things that keeps markets stable. The opportunities, though, are in doing large volume to take advantage of small margins.

You've supported exactly my point above--people may look to exchange rates, but the exchange rates are a function of the relative valuation that goes into the value of the currency, not the value itself. It's used because usually what a consumer is looking for isn't the valuation but rather the relative purchasing power at the moment.

And if those valuations are wrong, those who believe this will weigh in with arbitrage, and either erase the temporary discrepancy or find out they were wrong. Today, in the age of nearly instantaneous market exchanges, arbitrage is difficult. It's a pretty stable market.

Well I agree with you except on the idea that arbitrage and any such speculation is necessary for 'stable' markets...whatever that is.

It was rampant speculation that caused oil to go well over $100/bbl. There were absolutely no fundamentals that would cause such an accelerated increase in that price. No sudden large drop in supply or such increase in demand.

The speculation simply fed more speculation which feeds even more which even caused (forced) the oil industry to partake. The corp. oil world actually hates such rampant speculation as they would rather devote resources to getting oil to the market...not speculating on price.

In fact, markets would much more stable with a very high tax (say 50%) on such speculation and the elimination of 50% leveraging of contract purchases.

The same thing happened with silver way back when and gold more recently. I am of the belief and I am not alone that the market left to itself and without turning the exchange of commodities into paper (futures) would provide a more stable market, at least, much more 'stable' than it is now.

< Message edited by MrRodgers -- 1/2/2015 3:13:12 PM >

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 3:18:26 PM

Musicmystery

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You're ignoring so many points, not the least of which was war and instability in the middle east.

But I know...in your world, everything economic is run by evil.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 3:18:32 PM

GoddessManko

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery
"Real backing" is an artificial "fixed" number to a fluctuating reality. Decades ago, arbitragers figured that out, and used it to drive central banks to their knees, especially the Bank of England in the 60s, because by exploiting the difference between the "official" currency and the "official" price of gold, they could cash in on the discrepancy, forcing a country to lower its evaluation. The US dollar came under similar attack when Nixon (wisely) cut out Bretton Woods obligations in favor of the current float. Thus, it reflects reality--at least more closely, as it's still a managed float.

And Kirata is right--much of this discussion is focusing on exchange rates, i.e., the value of currencies relative to each other, vs. the valuation of currency.

This is so extremely wrong, no offense. Firstly, if there was no fixed backing then our investors wouldn't have panicked under Carter BECAUSE our dollar was no longer backed by gold. The current float is way more artificial and contrived than the dollar being backed by something tangible rather than "good faith" Investors like a sure thing and "good faith" isn't it.Thankfully we still have our AAA credit rating despite Congressional attempts to disintegrate that. Also under Bush you saw how artificially inflated the markets became due to Nixon's massive, MASSIVE deregulation. Glass-Steagall is a drop in the bucket in comparison.
Not to mention the Bretton Woods agreement is the SOLE REASON the US is a superpower and Germany was able to rebuild so rapidly.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 3:20:36 PM

Musicmystery

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I'm sure you'll explain the error to all the appropriate economic folks in the government and get the whole thing worked out.

They're lucky to have you.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 6:33:49 PM

GoddessManko

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery

I'm sure you'll explain the error to all the appropriate economic folks in the government and get the whole thing worked out.

They're lucky to have you.

He can email the White House or his Congressman. I do.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/2/2015 7:34:47 PM

MrRodgers

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

quote:

ORIGINAL: Musicmystery
"Real backing" is an artificial "fixed" number to a fluctuating reality. Decades ago, arbitragers figured that out, and used it to drive central banks to their knees, especially the Bank of England in the 60s, because by exploiting the difference between the "official" currency and the "official" price of gold, they could cash in on the discrepancy, forcing a country to lower its evaluation. The US dollar came under similar attack when Nixon (wisely) cut out Bretton Woods obligations in favor of the current float. Thus, it reflects reality--at least more closely, as it's still a managed float.

And Kirata is right--much of this discussion is focusing on exchange rates, i.e., the value of currencies relative to each other, vs. the valuation of currency.

This is so extremely wrong, no offense. Firstly, if there was no fixed backing then our investors wouldn't have panicked under Carter BECAUSE our dollar was no longer backed by gold. The current float is way more artificial and contrived than the dollar being backed by something tangible rather than "good faith" Investors like a sure thing and "good faith" isn't it.Thankfully we still have our AAA credit rating despite Congressional attempts to disintegrate that. Also under Bush you saw how artificially inflated the markets became due to Nixon's massive, MASSIVE deregulation. Glass-Steagall is a drop in the bucket in comparison.
Not to mention the Bretton Woods agreement is the SOLE REASON the US is a superpower and Germany was able to rebuild so rapidly.

Carter was the victim of Nixon who acted purely out of self interest to increase employment and help get him re-elected as unemployment had risen to 6% by 1971. Nixon was warned about our trade balance and going into deficit and inflation but he didn't care.

Th ensuing collapse if US trade surpluses which are now huge deficits can be laid all on Nixon what with other countries buying dollars to keep their currency low and trade surplus continuing. (the Japanese were the biggest buyers at the outset buying billion$ in dollars to keep the Yen low)

Glass-Steagall is unrelated as its deregulation simply allowed wall street to risk depositors dollars that are FDIC insured which with the latest 'CRomnibus' bill leaves in place our monetary/capitalist banking casino system of...heads THEY win, TAILS WE LOSE.

< Message edited by MrRodgers -- 1/2/2015 7:37:37 PM >

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/4/2015 11:02:14 AM

MrRodgers

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
To the extent a currency is subject to any fundamentals it is the assessment or confidence in the labor force behind the currency hence as I mentioned in a prior post and that confidence is...as a store of wealth. (low inflation)

With currencies having no real backing, labor is all that is left.

Adam Smith capitalism at its finest.

Let us not forget, when Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations, the economy of the US was not slave to a fed but in fact the B of E and there was no dollar. (1776) The Bank of England (crown) had tried its best to force the Empire onto the British pound but without the concerns of any vast forex arbitrage market.

< Message edited by MrRodgers -- 1/4/2015 11:48:24 AM >

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/4/2015 11:12:24 AM

GoddessManko

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
To the extent a currency is subject to any fundamentals it is the assessment or confidence in the labor force behind the currency hence as I mentioned in a prior post and that confidence is...as a store of wealth. (low inflation)

With currencies having no real backing, labor is all that is left.

Adam Smith capitalism at its finest.

Let us not forget, when Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations, the economy of the US was not slave to a fed nut in fact the B of E and there was no dollar. (1776) The Bank of England (crown) had tried its best to force the Empire onto the British pound but without the concerns of any vast forex arbitrage market.

True, though thanks to Adam Smith wealth is dependent on labor (number of employees and cost of labor/output) rather than resources (oil, gold, precious stones). I am a fan of the Nash equilibrium myself. The markets are sustainable when the markets are less competitive and more cooperative with smart investments which lead to long term progress.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/4/2015 11:53:15 AM

MrRodgers

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers

quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
To the extent a currency is subject to any fundamentals it is the assessment or confidence in the labor force behind the currency hence as I mentioned in a prior post and that confidence is...as a store of wealth. (low inflation)

With currencies having no real backing, labor is all that is left.

Adam Smith capitalism at its finest.

Let us not forget, when Adam Smith wrote Wealth of Nations, the economy of the US was not slave to a fed nut in fact the B of E and there was no dollar. (1776) The Bank of England (crown) had tried its best to force the Empire onto the British pound but without the concerns of any vast forex arbitrage market.

True, though thanks to Adam Smith wealth is dependent on labor (number of employees and cost of labor/output) rather than resources (oil, gold, precious stones). I am a fan of the Nash equilibrium myself. The markets are sustainable when the markets are less competitive and more cooperative with smart investments which lead to long term progress.

You (and Nash) may be correct but I am thinking that would require systematic intrusion from govt. for which we have been witness...doesn't care about competition at all given the tremendous consolidation of markets in the last 50 years or more.

That consolidation is not spawned by a desire for any cooperation which the exception of price fixing. (profiteering)

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/4/2015 12:27:32 PM

GoddessManko

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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
You (and Nash) may be correct but I am thinking that would require systematic intrusion from govt. for which we have been witness...doesn't care about competition at all given the tremendous consolidation of markets in the last 50 years or more.

That consolidation is not spawned by a desire for any cooperation which the exception of price fixing. (profiteering)

You have no idea how refreshing your perspective is, it is rare for someone to speak honestly about the current trends in our markets and the markets for the past 30 years. This President has worked hard to help us thwart a horrible disaster but he hasn't been able to do much to prevent a major blow from a future market correction. I had my eye opening moment when at the height of the recession I was in Chicago (the pics on profile) and it was nice, spring 2009 and tulips all over the city. I was heading to a restaurant with friends when I saw the longest line I had ever possibly seen leading to a store, there were so many people I couldn't tell what store it was. So I asked what was going on, is there a celebrity in town? Book signing? No.
The new ipad was being launched that day.
The height of the recession when 1 in 2 Americans were below the poverty line. Then I realized, we have no fucking clue what is actually going on in Washington or with the economy. We think we're doing our jobs and therefore our politicians are, whether D or R. Information is power, this is true.
This is why people panicked (not to make light of this) when we were attacked and went out and bought supplies but not when there was a possibility of a global crash of the financial markets.
I thought things would change with this president and the patriots would stand up for themselves, their children and the future. But the short sightedness, the blind eye we all got used to turning for sake of happiness is still there.
Half of Wall Street lost their jobs including a Dutch Namibian I was quite infatuated with who was happy to talk about anything with me but the future of soy.
Everyone in Congress right now are very short sighted, we have no innovators representing us in the legislative branch, only political panderers and meanwhile our economy is begging to be fed. This President has done incredible things sans support but the next president who may not be as keen on "feeding the homeless" as Obama is going to decide whether he was doing the right thing or not.
A Republican Congressman said simply "if gas was $20 a gallon people would stop buying it". The shortsighted nature of this thinking is alarming. My apologies for offending anyone by my perspective of Mises-esque economics.
Edited to add; The most interesting thing about the science of economics is the very human aspects of it. There are no right or wrong answers, only mind vs heart and there is a lot of grey area and "wiggle room".
This is why swearing allegiance, taking oaths and having a measurable code of honor helps where there is a lack of accountability. Congress has no term limits. Voting is an important freedom, as is consumerism.
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?

< Message edited by GoddessManko -- 1/4/2015 12:32:11 PM >

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/5/2015 7:01:22 AM

Real0ne

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yep

However when you precipitate to the man on the street......

You spend 1 hour of your time and sweat to earn a dollar and put that dollar in your pocket to buy a gallon of milk 10 years later and you cant. You now need 2 dollars, hence the tragedy we call a monetary system has robbed you of 1/2 of your labor.

On the other hand if you purchase real property it 'better' retains its value. Oh wait, I forgot, they tax you because you own it, and again steal your labor through taxes. They even tax the necessities of life like your shelter. Living in a shelter is a luxury you dont need. Land of indentured slaves.

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/5/2015 7:15:20 AM

GoddessManko

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quote:

ORIGINAL: Real0ne

yep

However when you precipitate to the man on the street......

You spend 1 hour of your time and sweat to earn a dollar and put that dollar in your pocket to buy a gallon of milk 10 years later and you cant. You now need 2 dollars, hence the tragedy we call a monetary system has robbed you of 1/2 of your labor.

On the other hand if you purchase real property it 'better' retains its value. Oh wait, I forgot, they tax you because you own it, and again steal your labor through taxes. They even tax the necessities of life like your shelter. Living in a shelter is a luxury you dont need. Land of indentured slaves.

I agree and disagree, this country gives a lot of comfort and freedom to citizens you don't see in most parts of the world. No one can stop inflation or a market correction. Economic cycles are normal, inevitable and healthy. However they can lessen the amount of damage a recession/ Depression can cause by provisionally thwarting "disaster" through social programs and the right investments into technology, infrastructure and science. I agree with your assessment of inflation and taxes, but these are necessary to provide the luxuries we've become so accustomed and are mostly affected by growing supply and demand. They are a necessary evil so to speak, but how do we have a billionaire paying less in taxes than his secretary? We need to find more efficient models that benefit as many people as possible while maintaining the sustainability of the markets.

< Message edited by GoddessManko -- 1/5/2015 7:22:23 AM >

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/5/2015 7:17:08 AM

Real0ne

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quote:

ORIGINAL: GoddessManko

This is so extremely wrong, no offense. Firstly, if there was no fixed backing then our investors wouldn't have panicked under Carter BECAUSE our dollar was no longer backed by gold. The current float is way more artificial and contrived than the dollar being backed by something tangible rather than "good faith" Investors like a sure thing and "good faith" isn't it.Thankfully we still have our AAA credit rating despite Congressional attempts to disintegrate that. Also under Bush you saw how artificially inflated the markets became due to Nixon's massive, MASSIVE deregulation. Glass-Steagall is a drop in the bucket in comparison.
Not to mention the Bretton Woods agreement is the SOLE REASON the US is a superpower and Germany was able to rebuild so rapidly.

Its backed by an underlying mortgage on your real property that most people arent even aware exists. Its legal because you own your property in fee (feod).

doesnt matter if one is paid in gold oil or beans, unlike paper currency its specie and has real value.

I posted this one as an fyi btw, I agree with most of your post, on the other hand I disagree with most of what MM posts regarding the monetary system.

< Message edited by Real0ne -- 1/5/2015 7:27:41 AM >

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Democracy; The 'People' voted on 'which' amendment?

Yesterdays tinfoil is today's reality!

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RE: Dollar has its best year since 2005 - 1/5/2015 10:07:14 AM

vincentML

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quote:

doesnt matter if one is paid in gold oil or beans, unlike paper currency its specie and has real value.

WTF? Which planet are you from? Real Value? The only real value any commodity has is what demand there is for it and what consumers are willing to exchange.

Tulip bulbs anyone?