RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (Full Version)

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bounty44 -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/2/2015 2:36:12 AM)

quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: njlauren

science based on showing holes in someone else's theory is not science


I don't know that anyone's science is actually based on that, but ironically enough, that's precisely an integral and essential part of the process of inquiry, so to use it as a criticism doesn't really work...

and you also used a key word here that needs to be emphasized since you aren't actually clinging to it where you need to, "theory", which refers to possible explanations as opposed to verifiably known facts.









epiphiny43 -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/2/2015 3:56:25 AM)

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ORIGINAL: Kirata


quote:

ORIGINAL: epiphiny43

Back to reality: A google search will reveal research on mid level ocean temps in the Southern Ocean that nicely account for the 'missing' heat of the supposed lost years of planet warming.

Yeah, no.

Study Finds Earth’s Ocean Abyss Has Not Warmed

The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years. Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, analyzed satellite and direct ocean temperature data from 2005 to 2013 and found the ocean abyss below 1.24 miles (1,995 meters) has not warmed measurably.

Source: NASA

K.


More problems with reading comprehension?? The study found no Deep level heating. SOooo, ya like that study? Maybe you should have READ it before posting the link? It's the one I was referring to. What I said was mid-level heating, not deep. The last three paragraphs of the study:

"Coauthor Felix Landerer of JPL noted that during the same period warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated, an unequivocal sign that our planet is heating up. Some recent studies reporting deep-ocean warming were, in fact, referring to the warming in the upper half of the ocean but below the topmost layer, which ends about 0.4 mile (700 meters) down.*

Landerer also is a coauthor of another paper in the same journal issue on 1970-2005 ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere. Before Argo floats were deployed, temperature measurements in the Southern Ocean were spotty, at best. Using satellite measurements and climate simulations of sea level changes around the world, the new study found the global ocean absorbed far more heat in those 35 years than previously thought -- a whopping 24 to 58 percent more than early estimates.*

Both papers result from the work of the newly formed NASA Sea Level Change Team, an interdisciplinary group tasked with using NASA satellite data to improve the accuracy and scale of current and future estimates of sea level change. The Southern Hemisphere paper was led by three scientists at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in Livermore, California."
* my bold

Considerably more heating of the upper half or so of the Global Ocean is an incredibly vast amount of calories to just 'find', water holding far more heat per volume than air.
Another recent study including considerably more N. American and other climate stations increased calculated atmospheric heating, most of the 'missing' heat is now accounted for. So much for the planet warming failing.

It's notable that Real scientists aren't happy with the better fit of data to theory, they are still working to see how the now far smaller gaps between data and prediction can be reconciled, working both ends. Fine tuning all climate models with each new understanding and looking for more comprehensive and finer grain data collection to find yet more cycles and dynamics in a vast planetary system we may be centuries fully defining. But for now, yeah, it's getting Warmer.

The difference between Science and other belief systems is simple. Scientists are dedicated students of natural phenomena who stop arguing and Go Look at things, in far more depth and length of study, lately with unprecedented tools and instruments. If this agreed with previous far less intensive study, we'd all be surprised? Then like good explorers or surveyors always have, they bring back 'maps', notes and descriptions of not only what they found but how they went about it so others could test the data at later times with similar or improved instruments, spotting trends and cycles single studies can't. This lets knowledge build and interrelate so each worker contributes to a general advance with the obvious possibilities for skeptics to challenge precise methods and data to spot errors in method or calculation.

The canard that Global Warming is just a cash cow scientists are riding to riches is laughable. Compared to the money the oil industry and partisan politics are throwing behind denial, it's peanuts.
When the top level Pentagon strategists are spending serious time and resources studying what conflicts are expected and when as sea level rises (Expectations are up to a third of humanity and over half of urban humans will be displaced by low end predictions of sea level change, and far more by mid to high end projections.) and water resource availability change across the planet, affecting not only food security but almost every level of commerce and industry. You'd think less educated and less patriotic people would get the message and start thinking how to best deal with the situation that's developing instead of acting as stooges for selfish interests trying to get all the cash out of a failing system before it crashes. Big Oil and such would do far better to invest the money thrown at phoney science and to pay off 'for rent' politicians if they invested the money in technologies that are obviously just over the horizon that just might alter the trajectory we now see to maybe the end of urban industrial culture. They'd end up richer and their own children and grandkids might actually have a still semi-decent planet to live on.
But what big corporation headed by bean counters likes getting ahead of the curve? Any totally predictable setback in researching and transitioning to disruptive technologies panics the investors and brings accusations of failing 'Fiduciary Responsibility', which seems to be only to quarterly share dividends, not to the long term survival of both corporation and investor, and the larger society it functions within.




Kirata -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/2/2015 4:27:55 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: epiphiny43

The study found no Deep level heating. SOooo, ya like that study? What I said was mid-level heating, not deep.

The average depth of the oceans is 2.65 miles. Therefore, 1.24 miles is right on target for detecting mid-level heating.

quote:

ORIGINAL: epiphiny43

during the same period warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated, an unequivocal sign that our planet is heating up.

The upper 0-1.24 miles of the oceans has warmed by only 0.09C in 55 years! (Levitus, 2012)

quote:

ORIGINAL: epiphiny43

The difference between Science and other belief systems is simple... stop arguing and Go Look at things

Food for thought there.

K.




MercTech -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/2/2015 6:01:34 AM)

The weather effecting portion of the oceans is above the thermocline.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermocline

Drop below 250 feet or so and things are mostly steady state. In fact, the abyssal temperatures stay right at freezing all the time.

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/october/nasa-study-finds-earth-s-ocean-abyss-has-not-warmed/#.VPRsrOH7Kao




epiphiny43 -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/2/2015 3:59:59 PM)

Cherry picking numbers is such a habit, the significance of 'small' quantities escapes you? Further down the paragraph of the linked study: "The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–700 m layer increased by 16.7 ± 1.6 × 1022 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 W m−2(per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18°C." This is the 0-700 m level of the Whole World Ocean. Which is from the figure elsewhere in the study, 93% of the now measured global warming for the study period, sea, land and atmosphere. LOTS of water, heating up enough to see the rise in sea level from space with the new satellite. And nearly a third ("24-58% more") previously not characterized and thus not included in climate models.

Since the graph isn't loading to reproduce here, a link for 1960 to near present: http://daviddfriedman.blogspot.com/2014/06/heat-content-temperature-oceans-and.html David Friedman, with acknowledged lack of background in either atmospheric or ocean studies, makes the same error thinking a portion of a degree warming All Over The Whole Ocean is inconsequential. The heat is coming in and staying, which previously to the warming observed since the start of the Industrial Age, left in rough balance, thus Global Warming. If the massive melting of both Arctic and Antarctic ice and the retreat of virtually every glacier on Earth doesn't say That small brown lower part of the graph is significant, someone needs a rethink.
The far larger absorption of heat in the upper levels of all the ocean we have won't cause disruptions only in minds not grasping the scale of the planet and the heat dynamics. Remember ice melting isn't just a simple temperature rise, it includes the heat of phase change transformation far larger than the specific heat required to raise either ice or liquid water (Twice that of ice) a degree. Which is 80 times the heat to raise water one degree. If my memory serves.
THESE facts are why so many exceptionally intelligent and informed math/science brains are not just wide-eyed but seriously alarmed at what the studies they are part of and well grasp are telling us all. We are shitting in our house, damaging to the point of not supporting urban life, if not destroying the only ecosystem in the Known Universe that supports water based life, and has chocolate.
Rough estimates of recovery time from not improbable greenhouse runaway are in the time frame of recent Glacial episodes. Way past my last birthday. And yours.




Kirata -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/2/2015 4:17:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: epiphiny43

Cherry picking numbers is such a habit, the significance of 'small' quantities escapes you? Further down the paragraph of the linked study: "The heat content of the World Ocean for the 0–700 m layer increased by 16.7 ± 1.6 × 1022 J corresponding to a rate of 0.27 W m−2(per unit area of the World Ocean) and a volume mean warming of 0.18°C."

Fine. If you like your cherry, you can keep your cherry. So then it's a warming of less than two-tenths of a degree in 55 years. Holy coyote, mama! If that keeps up for another thousand years, the 0-700m layer will be ~3 degrees warmer by 3015. Not to mention, even that miniscule warming is questionable (see here and here).

K.




epiphiny43 -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/3/2015 4:02:22 PM)

Again, hoist by your own Petard? The only interesting part of the first link is the post by a competitor of the firm making the thermosensors for the Argos bouys, removing all doubt that current state of the art instruments ARE capable of .002º C and smaller differentiations, otherwise it's the same as the second, non-professionals speculating about the same statistical calculation decisions all studies have to make. So, I'm sure climate study professionals don't have access to professional statisticians on staff or even run their figures past other academics who are qualified? Nobody on the whole study team of PHDs and post doc students has that training, or bothered to consider any of the problems endemic to real world studies? (These Are committee decisions?) Like the Russians who see conspiracies behind every conspiracy, all events are explained by unknowable hidden acts and agendas?
Funny, how all the people actually Doing field studies in all relevant fields don't doubt the permafrost is melting, the ocean is acidifying, glaciers are retreating as well as grossly speeding up, growing seasons are lengthening and wildlife patterns altering world wide, sea level is rising and previously relatively stable weather dynamics are making unprecedented excursions everywhere . . . When doubters find Any actual measurements of natural dynamics to explain the entirely obvious planetary warming Besides anthropogenic activities, whose contributions are in lock step with observed changed, PLEASE let us know? Solar radiation has been a minimum during the later part of the observed radar measurement of sea level rise, no love there?
The main significance of the study was finding ways to extend direct temp measurements to look at a way to verify or bring into question a whole different measurement of ocean changes, the direct measurement of sea level from orbiting radars, increasingly precise instruments that Do get systematic continuous calibration, every time they pass over dry land. That the 0-700m temps nicely dovetail with the sea level changes seen since the orbiting radar was installed is the importance of the study. How and why the deeper sea isn't warming and the mid level is remains to be characterized. It IS happening and sea levels since the radar went in is simply an extension of long term trends now accelerating.

For what this discussion is really about now (GW being only a small subset of the controversy between doubters and the enterprise of systematically studying events and nature), and the OP (Remember that, maybe my most successful thread hijack, Sorry!) see: Strict Father And Nurturant Parenting Styles: Metaphors For Political Ideologies with George Lakoff, Ph.D. newdimensions.org; and the current article saying similarly in the March National Geographic, Why Do Reasonable People Doubt Science. Even among the most scientifically literate, belief or denial of new studies and findings follows emotional predisposition (world frames), not intellectual education. We are Not rational animals, we are emotional creatures who happen to be such skilled tool makers we invented language, and it's logic patterns, which fools us into thinking we are logical. Which is no more accurate than saying we are integrated silicon circuit beings just because we use tools, hand calculators and computers, that are integrated circuits. PET scan studies and others actually watch the emotions happening as we make decisions even before we do the internal verbal calisthenics we call Logic.




joether -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/4/2015 10:01:26 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: bounty44
quote:

quote:
ORIGINAL: njlauren
science based on showing holes in someone else's theory is not science


I don't know that anyone's science is actually based on that, but ironically enough, that's precisely an integral and essential part of the process of inquiry, so to use it as a criticism doesn't really work...

and you also used a key word here that needs to be emphasized since you aren't actually clinging to it where you need to, "theory", which refers to possible explanations as opposed to verifiably known facts.


Just a small point here...

Rather than using 'theory', try hypothesis. That would be what someone uses when asking one or more questions and giving 'what they think the answer would be'. Since a 'Theory' in science is a pretty high level concept. Its like 'the book of Genesis' or the 'Book of Exodus' found in the Holy Bible. That there is much built upon a scientific theory, rather than it being 'someone's guess work'.

When one scientist presents their findings, they will often explain their hypothesis along with the experiments, data, and conclusions. They then publish it for peer review. Someone could find 'holes' in the original hypothesis, if they ran the same experiments and obtained different results. Or the method(s) used to test were not the proper ways/methods. I'm being very broad on purpose here, because it gets pretty technical depending on the field of study.

The Theory of Gravity, for example, Bounty, would be one that explains a concept of 'why do things drop to the ground when thrown?'. And it can be verified not with facts, but with evidence. You get facts from evidence, not the other way around (which would be a belief or superstition). An there is a great heaping pile of evidence that supports the concepts found under the Laws of Gravity and the much greater concept the Theory of Gravity.




Kirata -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/5/2015 9:48:53 PM)


~ FR ~

Hilarious! Obama's EPA Administrator, Gina McCarthy, can't even answer simple questions....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24DP1uG-MEM

K.




bounty44 -> RE: Climate scientist under investigation for witchcraft (3/6/2015 3:32:32 AM)

I am hoping you are not thinking the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are interchangeable.

but assuming instead you are just altering the op's words in order to make them work better---in the strictest sense, they still don't.

if hypotheses are statements by which suppositions can be further investigated in order to prove or disprove them, then you have to allow for the fact that educated and intelligent people, with sound research principles, can indeed find and interpret data that doesn't support certain hypotheses in the global warming area.

unfortunately, the leftists call those people "deniers"




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