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Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea


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Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 8:42:45 AM   
cloudboy


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So many uniformed people have strong opinions about the IRAN deal. Here's the best take I've read on the subject, and I'm persuaded by the author's POV.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/11/opinion/north-koreas-real-lessons-for-iran.html?_r=0

This negotiator of the North Korean deal pretty much argues that IRAN will beef up its nuclear arsenal bigger and faster without a deal -- and that deals are by nature problematic but still often effective.






< Message edited by cloudboy -- 4/16/2015 8:44:30 AM >
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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 8:46:41 AM   
cloudboy


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Faced with the prospect of a hostile, nuclear-armed North Korea in 1994, the Clinton administration reached a deal that required the North to give up its weapons program in return for energy assistance, the lifting of sanctions and better relations with the United States. In the late 1990s, however, we caught the North Koreans cheating and, early in the George W. Bush administration, the agreement collapsed. Today, the North’s reinvigorated bomb program may be poised, as Mr. Netanyahu pointed out in his recent speech to Congress, to produce as many as 100 nuclear weapons over the next five years.

Although our policy ultimately failed, the agreement did not. Without the 1994 deal, North Korea would have built the bomb sooner, stockpiled weapons more quickly and amassed a much larger arsenal by now. Intelligence estimates in the early 1990s concluded that the North’s nuclear program was so advanced that it could produce 30 Nagasaki-size nuclear weapons a year by the end of the decade. More than 20 years later, that still hasn’t happened.


^^^^ Definite food for thought.

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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 9:36:02 AM   
Aylee


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Those bastards in uniforms having opinions! How dare they!?!?



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Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam

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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 2:57:31 PM   
MrRodgers


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Now as for the uninformed...they are real problems. BUT, I read it too.

Yes, all agreements are problematic including those the US has abrogated. More partisan fodder just like all of those thing Lincoln got passed and these repubs of today...wouldn't touch.

Not being able to dis-invent nukes, Iran and most anybody else that wants them...will get them.


< Message edited by MrRodgers -- 4/16/2015 2:58:43 PM >

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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 4:33:58 PM   
cloudboy


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Well, none of us knows anything -- so we must rely on some kind of informed, sensible expert opinion.

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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 7:47:32 PM   
MrRodgers


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quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


Well, none of us knows anything -- so we must rely on some kind of informed, sensible expert opinion.

Well the article consulted history, Clinton and W, so we are stuck with that...on this issue.

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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 8:35:09 PM   
Aylee


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quote:

ORIGINAL: cloudboy


Faced with the prospect of a hostile, nuclear-armed North Korea in 1994, the Clinton administration reached a deal that required the North to give up its weapons program in return for energy assistance, the lifting of sanctions and better relations with the United States. In the late 1990s, however, we caught the North Koreans cheating and, early in the George W. Bush administration, the agreement collapsed. Today, the North’s reinvigorated bomb program may be poised, as Mr. Netanyahu pointed out in his recent speech to Congress, to produce as many as 100 nuclear weapons over the next five years.

Although our policy ultimately failed, the agreement did not. Without the 1994 deal, North Korea would have built the bomb sooner, stockpiled weapons more quickly and amassed a much larger arsenal by now. Intelligence estimates in the early 1990s concluded that the North’s nuclear program was so advanced that it could produce 30 Nagasaki-size nuclear weapons a year by the end of the decade. More than 20 years later, that still hasn’t happened.


^^^^ Definite food for thought.


If the NORKS did not keep to the agreement, then it failed. The article is based on a false premise.

_____________________________

Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam

I don’t always wgah’nagl fhtagn. But when I do, I ph’nglui mglw’nafh R’lyeh.

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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/16/2015 9:27:18 PM   
Kirata


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Iranian Parliament Releases "Factsheet" for Revision of Lausanne Statement

TEHRAN (FNA) - The Iranian parliament's Nuclear Committee on Wednesday released a factsheet to declare the revisions needed to be made in the Lausanne statement that was issued by Tehran and the world powers as a framework understanding at the end of their nuclear talks in Switzerland earlier this month.

The factsheet which was presented by Head of the Nuclear Committee Ebrahim Karkhaneyee on Wednesday stresses the necessity for respecting the redlines and guidelines specified by Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, making Iran's decisions and undertakings reversible to enable the country to resume its nuclear operations in case of the other side's non-commitment to its undertakings, and immediate termination of all sanctions in a single step and on the first day of the implementation of the final agreement.


The factsheet also requires that any agreement be limited to five years, and allows only a minimal inspection scheme.

Once done, the principle stated by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution - that security and military sanctities and boundaries shouldn’t be violated and that the inspections should be carried out at conventional levels similar to all other countries - will be respected and materialized. Given the Islamic Republic of Iran's opposition to the world arrogance, endorsing and implementing the Additional Protocol will provide the world arrogance (a term normally used for the US and its western allies) with legal grounds to stage their preplanned plots against the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Full details at the link.

K.

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RE: Is the IRAN Deal a Good One? -- Look to North Korea - 4/17/2015 5:41:37 AM   
cloudboy


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I think the question is: where does IRAN go with or without the deal?

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