DesideriScuri
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Joined: 1/18/2012
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ORIGINAL: joether
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ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
It doesn't matter how large or small an impact the number of questioned voters will have. Do you know, for sure, that the True the Vote group didn't rely on statistics from the Census Bureau that were updated recently? If so, please cite.
Actually it does matter. The great sum of people interviewed, the greater sum of information by which to draw conclusions from. Its one thing to perform a test of ten individuals and find one of them would vote Mr. Cruz. Its different when a hundred are interviewed and 18 individuals would vote for Mr. Cruz. In the first 'study', only 10% would vote for Mr. Cruz. In the second, 18% would vote for Mr. Cruz. Now what if we questioned a thousand? More data, means more information.
You moron. How do you function without being capable of following a discussion?
We're talking about 2800-ish registered voters being questionable.
You said, "The likelihood those 2,800+ individuals made a dent on state or federal elections is slim to none (with emphasis on being close to or is, 'none')."
I said it didn't matter how much of an impact the "number of questioned voters" (2800+, remember?) would make.
This wasn't about some poll.
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The 'True the Vote' group did not explain their methodology to any real degree. They stated that eight counties saw a 5% growth of register voters over five years and assumed it HAD TO BE voter fraud. Where is the evidence of this conspiracy?
How do you know that they were comparing the county voter rolls to 5-year old data? Got any proof of that? If they based it on current numbers (like it's been shown that the US Census Bureau does release), then their lawsuit just might be true (and the lawsuit states that those counties are in violation of the NVRA, not that there is voter fraud going on).
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That's the problem with conspiracy theorists: the lack of real, good quality, information that links things together accurately. This organization, True the Vote, can not accept that the number of voters in those eight counties grew by normal, easily explained reasons. There has to be something....sinister. So they manufacture crap 'evidence' that is flimsy upon examination by researchers. The problem is that there are more conspiracy theorists then there are researchers. To be a conspiracy theorist requires nothing more than failing out of high school; were as learning to be a researcher takes a college degree or two.
There are a pile of conspiracies surrounding 9/11, and then there are researchers whom examined the evidence based on science and arrived at a well defined and in-depth analysis of all the events. Whose word do you accept as 'Most likely to be true'?
What conspiracy theory?!? That those counties weren't purging their voter rolls as the NVRA requires? That's not really a conspiracy theory, Joether. And, didn't the article mention at least one county was going through the process of purging all the incorrect registrations because of the lawsuit? Apparently, that county thought the lawsuit had merit and that they hadn't done their due diligence.
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ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
What "facts" have been given that make it unlikely?
Most libraries across the nation (according to the librarian I asked) have access to technical information on a wide range of details of America. From which bean is produced and/or consumed in each state (broken down by city and/or county), to how many people are left handed. Information like this is drawn from many government and private sector databases to be of use to the US Government. Private book sellers compile all this information into online source material, and book formats.
The end result of all this information, helps private individuals and companies alike determine many concepts (i.e. whom to sell baked ham during the thanks giving sale verse turkey). Companies will use this information when placing a new franchise location for KFC or McDonalds. Further it allows small business owners to tailor their sales area and thus, reduce expenses (i.e. not blanket advertising, but focus advertising potential buyers).
So by looking into this information, one could determine many characteristics of each of the counties. One could see the growth and change patterns in each county (most likely broken down by town/village) on each of the industries of interest to it. A town in Alaska is unlikely to have private swimming pools; but outside of Miami, FL, there would be a sizable industry (defined as a sub-section of house construction, if your REALLY curious).
Most likely, those eight counties experienced more registered voters in that five year window. This maybe due to more people becoming registered voters (i.e. turn 18 or move in) then lost (i.e. those whom died or moved out of the area). If there was some organization pushing to register voters (i.e. Rock the Vote), that too might contribute to the overall gain.
What might have happened with True the Vote? They saw an increase and didn't bother to research their information fully from all sources. Nor performed any investigative work on their own. No, they simply went the lazy route of saying "Its voter fraud". They lack evidence to support their claim(s). Why should a government perform all the research on the taxpayer's dime when this organization hasn't any real evidence?
1. True the Vote may not have done their research.
2. True the Vote may have done their research.
3. It's part of the NVRA that election boards have a system to purge invalid or no longer valid registrations. So, it's a function government is supposed to be doing. And, the lawsuit claims those counties have not done so. If the counties have done so, that should be quite easy to demonstrate, no?
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ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
Please cite your proof for the bolded assertion.
You want this for all 46 states, 4 commonwealths, 6 territories and 1 district?
You can perform a simple Google Search on your own if your REALLY curious. Yes, most states before the internet required towns/cities to report registered voter lists 'X' months before an election. In 2015, its usually updated every week or month. In fact if the state needed a list, they could contact the register and have the information within a few hours.
So, you want me to back up your assertion?
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ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
True the Vote is pushing the local elections boards (at the County level; Ohio election boards are also County-level; Texas may be, too). How long does it take, would you guess, to verify voter registrations? You know there's an election in less than a year, right?
Depends on the method used and the systems in place at the time to determine "how long does it take...".
As I stated above, things are updated on a regular basis. If a special order is needed, I'm sure it wouldn't take a register more than a few hours to transfer data information.
In other words, you have no idea. You continue to make assertions and don't/won't/can't back them up when asked. Just remember that next time you attempt to pin me in a corner and ask me to cite my assertions.
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ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
How do you know there is no proof? How do you know the evidence is "flimsy?" If the evidence isn't solid enough, they'll lose the lawsuit, won't they? Why should True the Vote be on the hook for the costs of government performing one of it's duties? If this lawsuit ends up going to court, and True the Vote loses, I wouldn't have any issue with their being on the hook to reimburse the County(ies) for the court costs.
They are welcome to take their issue to a court house. That is their freedom under the 1st amendment. The judge will require then to produce ACTUAL and REAL information of wrong doing. If their information isn't 'decent', the matter will get thrown out of court. Unlike a Tea Party Rally, a court room requires pretty exacting levels of detail that can be backed up with solid sources. True the Vote wants the government to fund a research project to which they do not have solid evidence that would demand inspection. Why should the government pay for research that some private organization is to lazy to produce to a convincing level? Do you have any idea how many organizations/individuals come before local governments demanding all sorts of crap at the taxpayer expense? The reason why most of them are denied is due to lack of good information and/or evidence to back up their claim.
They have threatened legal action. The True the Vote spokesperson even said that the bloated rolls could be due to clerical errors. That was in the fucking article you posted/quoted!! Did you not even read the whole thing?!?!?!? Lemme guess, it was too long, right? 
True the Vote isn't even alleging any intentional misconduct (worst conspiracy theory ever!!!)!!!
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ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
And, yes, hasty actions are likely to be bad actions. We actually agree on that. Where is your proof that there hasn't been any research done by True the Vote? Do you have any proof that the County election boards have done their due diligence in maintaining accurate voter rolls?
If True the Vote was so sure of its viewpoint, why not show how they came about the whole process? Show all the evidence? When an individual/organization doesn't want to show its cards while demanding action from government; I get suspicious of their overall motives. More so when I can perform a half hour research project and obtain the real information (or at least, a starting point to tap into other areas that might yield better evidence pertaining to the subject).
They are accusing the government of some wrong without evidence. In this country, if you accuse someone of some wrong doing, the burden of evidence is up to you. You have to show guilt. The other side does not have to show innocence. They are accusing eight counties of voter fraud; where is there evidence? They are not showing it; why?
How do you know there is no evidence? Where are they accusing 8 counties of voter fraud?
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ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
The lawsuit alleges that those Counties are in violation of the National Voting Rights Act by not purging their rolls. Do you believe this isn't true?
There is not evidence to support their accusation. Again, if I really felt like it I could research the information. My initial hypothesis is those counties experienced 5% grown of voter lists due to easily explainable reasons (i.e. more people turned 18 or moved in then died or moved out). Given that 2010-2015 saw increasing growth of all industries sectors, perhaps new companies moved in and/or expanded operations (needing more workers, whom needed to move into the area). That's eight counties for 2814 new members, or 352 people per county. So lets look at the initial data:
loving: 95 (2013) (3.7% unemployed)
brooks: 7237 (2013) (8.2% unemployed)
mcmullen: 764 (2013) (1.3% unemployed)
roberts: 831 (2013) (3.7 unemployed)
irion: 1612 (2013) (3.6% umemployed)
jim hogg: 5300 (2010) (N/A umemployed figures)
culberson: 2398 (2010) (N/A unemployed figures)
Polk: 45790 (2013) (5.3% unemployed)
With the exceptions of Brooks and Jim Hogg counties, all the others are in different parts of the state. The two mention share a common border. All these states either voted Democratic or had a higher percentage of those voting Democrat than Republican. The unemployment figures are well below the national average for the given time frames (2010 and 2013).
Given that True the Voter is a conservative organization, it REALLY isn't hard to determine motivation to their actions (as the grand majority of voter fraud accusation has come from conservative organizations over the past five years). They picked counties that not only voted in higher numbers for Democrats, but also picked the counties with small populations (with the exception of Polk county). Polk county has been experiencing an inflow of new businesses over the past four years.
How about this organization: True the Vote?
Created in 2009 by Catherine Engelbrecht. Mrs Engelbrecht's husband is the owner of Engelbrecht Manufacturing (which has been under investigation by the FBI, ATF, and OSHA). It has close ties to the Tea Party in Texas.
A web search of 'Catherine Engelbrecht' brings up quite the colorful list of information.
Yeah, there's 'no motivation' to go after Democrats here....(rolls eyes)
From your article:quote:
The counties — Loving, Brooks, McMullen, Roberts, Irion, Jim Hogg, Culberson and Polk — list a combined 52,298 registered voters. But the latest U.S. Census data show only 49,457 voting-age residents in those counties.
How do you know the "latest US Census data" hadn't been updated since 2010 (or 2011, if it took that long to process all the census material)?
Loving Co. politics:quote:
Loving County has voted for the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1972, except in 1992 when the county backed independent candidate Ross Perot. The county also backed a third-party candidate in 1968, supporting George Wallace. In 2015 Watchdog.org announced that the county had far more registered voters than the number of all residents
Brooks Co. politicsquote:
While the state of Texas is a stronghold of the Republican Party, Brooks County has never voted for a Republican Presidential candidate since its creation in 1911. In the 2004 presidential election, the county gave 1,820 votes to Democratic candidate John Kerry to 844 for Republican George W. Bush.
In 2012, 78.5% of the county's voters choose President Obama while only 21% voted for the Republican candidate Mitt Romney.
TXCo. 2012 Presidential Election result: Loving: Romney 84.4%
Brooks: Obama 78.5%
McMullen: Romney 85.8%
Roberts: Romney 92.9%
Irion: Romney 84.8%
Jim Hogg: Obama 78%
Culberson: Obama 64.6%
Polk: Romney 73.6%
So, of the 8 counties in question, 5 of them voted Republican. So much for "going after Democrats," eh?
_____________________________
What I support:
- A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
- Personal Responsibility
- Help for the truly needy
- Limited Government
- Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)
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