mnottertail
Posts: 60698
Joined: 11/3/2004 Status: offline
|
quote:
ORIGINAL: Phydeaux quote:
ORIGINAL: mnottertail quote:
ORIGINAL: Phydeaux quote:
ORIGINAL: mnottertail Richard Tol of Economics has seen all the papers and counted them and under what expertise does he count them in piles? That aint a study. There is no citation of 45%. Thats two implied trusts without foundation in your first sentence. That makes everything else suspect. Or bullshit. Under the same conditions that Orested, doctor of philosophy, made the 97% claim. Only Tol was a great deal more rigorous. Who is Orested? Who quotes 97% based on him? More rigorous in what way? Many many more trust mes there, but lets start with those. There are 2-3 people more or less contermporaneously that are quoted as being the source of the 97%. Naomi Orestes, as far as I know, is the first person to publish a study, and is the person most commonly associated with the figure. She is a doctor of philopsophy. She went to a paper repository know for slanting pro warming. She said she searched using terms x,y,z and got a number of papers. She then categorized those papers on whether they were pro AGW or not, merely by reading the abstract. The first problem, is as usual, she falsified the data. Searching that directory, over the same dates, with the key words she said she used, turned up more than ten times the number of papers that she claimed. Secondly, out of the roughly 1000 papers she surveyed, 70+ of the authors characterized her classification of their papers as false. So the actual percentage percentage of papers that actually were pro-AGW, were actually 9%. You are accidently right about one thing. Orestes is a doctor of Philosophy. She hold PhD in Geological Research and the History of Science. She never made any such a claim. Her claim was of 928 papers she studied (and she knew what she was looking at as opposed to Tol) That 75% of those papers explicitly or implicitly agreed with the IPCC that human activity was responsible for the warming observed over the last 50 years. An article found her methodology flawed and called the claim false in the Nature magazine in 2014. The 97% claim by Doran and Zimmerman in 2009 and Andregg in 2010 Cook in 2013 (which must be the ones you were thinking of with your vast knowledge in this area, but momentarily confused yourself with Oersted the Danish physicist and chemist who fucked around with magnets and electricity and has a measurement of magnetism named after him). By the way, all the claims were 'debunked' by idiots such as Tol et al. However the truth is the overwhelming majority of scientists, at around 70% or more are with the program. That's all factual. The nutsucker science skeptic slobberers are not exactly right themselves, in fact, they are fairly full of horseshit, at about a 97% level. Lets go thru your boy Tol a little more though, and clear some of this up: http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-to-determine-the-scientific-consensus-on-global-warming/ Old Tol seems like a bit of a fucking idiot all the way around, don't he? But you got 45% you got this claim and that claim, lotta trusts mes there, and based on your track record, the deal is most people would decline to do that. Your 'facts' are demonstrably faulty, very near the 97% level. Now way back when, was it a couple years ago? At the outset, I said I saw the CO2 ladder climbing this way, a half silvered mirror at the lower higher concentrations, which should cause cooling, then increasing to higher higher CO2 concentrations and a one way mirror and hello Venus for the Earth. I put up a few citations (nothing rigorous) and we agreed with that, not considering the other greenhouse gasses that are way out of whack right now, just CO2. That is my only puzzlement, but climate change is greatly affected by human activity and we need to do something. Global warming (a very small sliver of the climate change puzzle) doesnt concern me so much as the deal about cleaning up after you take a shit, it is that principle I adhere to, regardless if it affects the Earth or does not, it is a self-respect thing. That ends it for me. Clean the shit up. I dont want to wake up to coffee from Love Canal or Beijing, or breathe that shit there.
< Message edited by mnottertail -- 3/27/2016 12:36:13 AM >
_____________________________
Have they not divided the prey; to every man a damsel or two? Judges 5:30
|