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Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/24/2016 7:30:09 AM

lovmuffin

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Studies find that political prediction (betting) markets tend to be better at predicting elections than polls. Some reasons:
- Bettors take into account important factors besides polls.
- Unlike pundits, bettors put their money where their mouths are.
- People involved in the event might trade before news breaks publicly
- The "wisdom of crowds".

The odds update every 5 minutes.

https://electionbettingodds.com

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RE: Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/24/2016 8:18:46 AM

bounty44

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I was going to respond in saying that this is something ive heard john stossel talk about, and lo and behold, the site you linked was created by him!

quote:

JOHN STOSSEL: Who’s the next president? Bettors know best

Want to know who the next president will be?

Don’t trust polls or pundits. Betting odds at ElectionBettingOdds.com are the best predictor of who will win any election.

Pundits have a terrible track record...

Polls reveal only a snapshot of current opinion....

But people who bet knew better.

Right now, bettors know that Trump, even though he is ahead in polls, is unlikely to be the nominee. Marco Rubio is the favorite. Ted Cruz comes in second. Trump and Jeb Bush are third and fourth.

Sadly, Hillary Clinton is a 95 percent favorite to win the Democratic nomination and has a 55 percent chance of becoming our next president. Yikes!...

[those have changed quite a bit since the article]

Prediction markets have a long track record. University of North Carolina researchers found that from 1868 to 1940, prediction markets “did a remarkable job forecasting elections.” More than $100 million was bet, sometimes exceeding the value of shares changing hands on Wall Street. Newspapers ran headlines like “Betting Odds on Roosevelt Rise to 7 to 1.”

But the markets disappeared because America’s elites don’t like the idea of ordinary folks betting on important events.

Fortunately, American politicians don’t control the entire world, so I offer you the most accurate presidential race odds: ElectionBettingOdds.com.

http://www.nwfdailynews.com/article/20160111/opinion/160109415

< Message edited by bounty44 -- 1/24/2016 8:54:18 AM >

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RE: Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/24/2016 8:54:46 AM

lovmuffin

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Yeah, I just watched a FOX Nuu--oooze clip with John Stossel. I thought it was interesting though somewhat chilling as most of the money is on Hillary.

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RE: Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/24/2016 8:56:04 AM

bounty44

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thankfully we still have a long way to go until the election...right now the "republican money," somewhat like the polls, is split between 3-4 people.

< Message edited by bounty44 -- 1/24/2016 8:57:03 AM >

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RE: Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/25/2016 10:36:35 AM

joether

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The site looks at a person's chance of winning. NOT, on whether they have the ability to do good things for the nation. It is like the old saying "It is easy to get an A; its much harder to maintain that A grade". The Republican side is all about "Who Can Be a Bigger Asshole". As such Mr. Trump and Sen. Cruz quickly rose to the top. Democrats are focus more on 'how to accomplish things given limited resources' than one's personality.

Likewise the site really does not predict things so much as it pushes a political agenda. For instance, how do we determine whom has the better healthcare concepts needed for the nation? This site can not even begin to objectively rate such a concept. Even though such a concept does work itself into the full value of each candidate before the general election population.

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RE: Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/25/2016 10:45:36 AM

mnottertail

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quote:

ORIGINAL: lovmuffin

Yeah, I just watched a FOX Nuu--oooze clip with John Stossel. I thought it was interesting though somewhat chilling as most of the money is on Hillary.

Don't know why, look what she is up against. A dried dogshit could win against the nutsucker candidates.

But look also at the odds, meaning they are doubled at least against Hillary, so its a beg bet for all the other nutsuckers to get action. In other words, they are at least twice as dead as they look. All of them.

AND FYI I will not be voting for Hillary (and I expect like Obama) *TWICE*

< Message edited by mnottertail -- 1/25/2016 11:02:59 AM >

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RE: Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/26/2016 10:49:00 AM

Aceofsocks

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You can't beat a poll stuck up ur Anus!

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RE: Better Than The Polls ?? - 1/26/2016 11:48:54 AM

DominantWrestler