Phydeaux
Posts: 4828
Joined: 1/4/2004
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quote:
ORIGINAL: DarkSteven
I'm totally confused about this election. I've been wrong about several things.
1. Trump's candidacy. I figured he was another Sarah Palin, with no real ambition for public office, just using the election to drum up popularity, and charge more for speeches and sell more books. But it looks like he may take this seriously.
2. Trump's expected collapse. I predicted that Trump's opponents would drop from the race, one by one, and that the moderate GOP votes would all go to some non-Trump candidate. But the main challenger to Trump is Cruz, who's about as conservative as Trump. The GOP voters are more conservative than I had thought.
I cannot imagine GOP moderates rallying around Cruz. Nor can I imagine, if Cruz were to drop out of the race, that his support would go to anyone but Trump. So it boils down to either Trump or Cruz getting the GOP nomination.
3. I'm surprised to see relative unknown Sanders even being able to compete with well-known, well-connected Clinton. Part of this must be that Obama has not made his incredible political machine available to Clinton. I was expecting that to be a given. Evidently Clinton and Obama didn't make nice as much as I had thought.
Still, Clinton is racking up a huge lead in delegates.
Likely Clinton - Trump, with a slight possibility of Clinton - Cruz. Expect the nastiest, smeariest campaign in US history. The GOP will dig up all the dirt on Hillary from 2008, when they were blindsided by Obama beating her in the primary, as well as new material since. The Dems have an embarrassment of riches in Trump - his misogyny, his bankruptcies, his infidelity for a "family values" candidate (obviously, Clinton will have to be careful it doesn't backfire), and I suspect plenty of shady business dealings.
The result? Obama finally hands over his machine to Clinton, who exploits the GOTV component especially. Trump/Cruz alienates several blocs of voters. Clinton wins with a margin similar to Obama's against McCain.
I just hope the nastiness of the campaign doesn't poison the mood in Washington even worse.
I have, consistently here an other places, said that liberals do not understand the depth of the anger among independents and republicans. Due to 2010 being a solid wave election for the republicans, if there is *another* republican wave election - it will only show by republicans maintaining senate seats, no real pickups.
Republican enthusiasm is about 50% more than democrat at the moment. This election still has a 35% chance or so of being a wave election. Factors that diminish: republican party fracturing, Sanders coopting younger, impressionable voters. On the other hand, a lot of things could increase it. The economy, a terrorist action, heavily disruptive blm activities etc.
Edit: Or things like this: http://video.foxnews.com/v/4796045561001/justice-dept-may-prosecute-climate-change-deniers/?#sp=show-clips
People think that the attitude in washington is poisoned - they forget there has been fisticuffs on the floor of the house, duels among members. The republic muddles along same as it ever has. People on the right DONT WANT any more government activity. Zero. We don't want any more big government solutions. Build the damn wall. Stop being and idiot in the middle east. Deal with china's currency manipulation. Pay the debt.
< Message edited by Phydeaux -- 3/11/2016 8:59:30 AM >
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RE: Super Tuesday Predictions - 
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I doubt they will all fit in Singapore..
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