RE: What's Going On Here? (Full Version)

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kdsub -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/11/2016 6:36:19 PM)

Vince I don't think you give the US work force enough credit... Even with so called globalization we still have by far the most powerful economy. We are the driving force of the world economy.

But

If we had to we could gear up and absorb the loss of Chinese products and be better off for it. China is destroying their environment and poising their people in an effort to keep up. How long will the Chinese people put up with that?

Butch



Termyn8or -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/11/2016 6:44:40 PM)

OK, let's take that direction. The US and China get pissed off at each other. China only holds something like 12 % of the US debt, so the US might forced to buy that back. That means coming up with a little bit over a trillion bucks to spare. And it is not just coming up with it, it is that it is now on the market.

But that would not be our undoing. It would make it rough but that's about it. Now I thinnk we can get back to the point where we can make our own drywall and cars, but we have a long way to go to make TVs, computer boards and smartphones. Massive cost tooling up for that. And that means the cost of those items will rise dramatically. You think $400 is high for a top of the line smartphone ? Watch it double.

And it would be alright if they lasted ten years but they pretty much force you to upgrade every once in a while to stimulate their bank account. When they hit $1,000 people are not going to be able to do that. But then maybe they will. If we buy nothing from China it will most likely have to be made here. The Germans certainly are not going to start making drywall for six bucks a sheet when they got the skills to make so much more.

Cutting ties with China would mean more jobs in the US, but also a drastic increase i the prices of many things. They are goig to have to be produced moderately, and built to last or people simply will not have them anymore. If I pat a fucking grand for a TV set I want it to last ten years. And this will shut the software industry down because the hardware will be so expensive nobody will want to upgrade. And that's alright with me because every fucking upgrade takes things away. I could do more what I want in Windows 98. But that stringing you along by the ring in your nose will stop when your money stops. You need new hardware, oh now you need new software, oh now you need new hardware again, and you need new software again. I know it is not really a conspiracy in the colloquial sense, it is like cars and gasoline. You make cars that can run on our product and we'll make our product run your cars. The hardware software thing is alot closer to an actual conspiracy than that. And you can't tell e that they could not have patched up 98 to make it fairly secure. They can do anything they want to the software, it is just that they chose to do what makes them the most money.

But with the demise of planned obsolescence the money wheel slows down. They do not want this. The proverbial "they" make money when money moves. They would like you to just throw everything you own in a dumpster every six months and buy new. Everything. Even ham.

Ham was invented as a way to preserve pork by removing the moisture which inhibit bacterial growth. They still do it, salt it or smoke it or whatever. But then after it gets the flavor they pump water into it, which means it will spoil. They put the ECM in cars where water is likely to pool and corrode it. They put electrolytic capacitors near heat sinks, knowing full well that heat destroys them and the product fails. I have one example of a circuit SPECIFICALLY desiged to corrupt the software in a piece of electronics after a certain amount of time. If anyone here knows electronics I can provide the partial schematic and explanation.

The world economy works by filling landfills. This cannot go on forever. If we don't stop, it will stop and the consequences will be worse. I say we default on the national debt now before it gets tot he point where we lose everything. That has consequences but one day there will be no choice.

Germany I think did something similar years ago, refused to pay off some bonds because they happened to be in trouble. Yup, even Germany has thieves. Some people bitched but it was in the contract and perfectly legal. The US probably has the same policies attached to their bonds. However this refusal to honor thing is supposed to be temporary. With the US it would have to be permanent because we cannot create the wealth without real industry.

T^T



Nnanji -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/11/2016 7:39:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

Is it Chinese territorial waters?
We are to accept what the Chinese do and make accomodations for it but the Chinese should do what they want and give us nothing in return.

I didn't say that.

Maybe they feel threatened. Maybe there are historical issues.

But, the ex-CIA guy seems to think we are headed for a serious confrontation.

Historically, China hasn't had issues beyond their borders. That's pretty much come about recently with this regime.



blacksword404 -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/11/2016 8:40:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

We promised the Kurds we would protect them from sadam. We pulled out and left them high and dry. We have a habit of fucking people over by withdrawing our support. It's always politics. So even though we mean the promises we make when we make them, we still tend not to keep them.

Hmmm. . . Saddam was dead when we pulled most of our troops. And then there was that little disagreement about jurisdiction over the "criminal" behavior of our troops.

The first time. Not the second. When we pulled out and he started massacring the Kurds.



MrRodgers -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/12/2016 12:35:30 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Termyn8or

OK, let's take that direction. The US and China get pissed off at each other. China only holds something like 12 % of the US debt, so the US might forced to buy that back. That means coming up with a little bit over a trillion bucks to spare. And it is not just coming up with it, it is that it is now on the market.

But that would not be our undoing. It would make it rough but that's about it. Now I thinnk we can get back to the point where we can make our own drywall and cars, but we have a long way to go to make TVs, computer boards and smartphones. Massive cost tooling up for that. And that means the cost of those items will rise dramatically. You think $400 is high for a top of the line smartphone ? Watch it double.

And it would be alright if they lasted ten years but they pretty much force you to upgrade every once in a while to stimulate their bank account. When they hit $1,000 people are not going to be able to do that. But then maybe they will. If we buy nothing from China it will most likely have to be made here. The Germans certainly are not going to start making drywall for six bucks a sheet when they got the skills to make so much more.

Cutting ties with China would mean more jobs in the US, but also a drastic increase i the prices of many things. They are goig to have to be produced moderately, and built to last or people simply will not have them anymore. If I pat a fucking grand for a TV set I want it to last ten years. And this will shut the software industry down because the hardware will be so expensive nobody will want to upgrade. And that's alright with me because every fucking upgrade takes things away. I could do more what I want in Windows 98. But that stringing you along by the ring in your nose will stop when your money stops. You need new hardware, oh now you need new software, oh now you need new hardware again, and you need new software again. I know it is not really a conspiracy in the colloquial sense, it is like cars and gasoline. You make cars that can run on our product and we'll make our product run your cars. The hardware software thing is alot closer to an actual conspiracy than that. And you can't tell e that they could not have patched up 98 to make it fairly secure. They can do anything they want to the software, it is just that they chose to do what makes them the most money.

But with the demise of planned obsolescence the money wheel slows down. They do not want this. The proverbial "they" make money when money moves. They would like you to just throw everything you own in a dumpster every six months and buy new. Everything. Even ham.

Ham was invented as a way to preserve pork by removing the moisture which inhibit bacterial growth. They still do it, salt it or smoke it or whatever. But then after it gets the flavor they pump water into it, which means it will spoil. They put the ECM in cars where water is likely to pool and corrode it. They put electrolytic capacitors near heat sinks, knowing full well that heat destroys them and the product fails. I have one example of a circuit SPECIFICALLY desiged to corrupt the software in a piece of electronics after a certain amount of time. If anyone here knows electronics I can provide the partial schematic and explanation.

The world economy works by filling landfills. This cannot go on forever. If we don't stop, it will stop and the consequences will be worse. I say we default on the national debt now before it gets tot he point where we lose everything. That has consequences but one day there will be no choice.

Germany I think did something similar years ago, refused to pay off some bonds because they happened to be in trouble. Yup, even Germany has thieves. Some people bitched but it was in the contract and perfectly legal. The US probably has the same policies attached to their bonds. However this refusal to honor thing is supposed to be temporary. With the US it would have to be permanent because we cannot create the wealth without real industry.

T^T

Two things. Nobody can 'force' the US to buy back its debt. Once you buy it, you are married to it unless the owners just put it on the open market for sale and take the loss. I wonder just how it is that so many people have all of these crazy misconceptions about US debt ? And BTW, China owns about 10% or less of US debt.

The only thing that would likely mess with US finances would be as I've suggested, some false flag bank ops that shut down the banks which would not be much different than FDR's 'Bank Holiday' which with the cooperation of the Fed, was a resounding success.

HERE

Also, as long as China remains such a profit center for western corps. almost exclusively due to its cheap labor., the US and nobody else is going to change that...only China can and they aren't. I have an OP coming on the power of the almighty profit incentive.



vincentML -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/12/2016 4:41:54 PM)

quote:

Vince I don't think you give the US work force enough credit... Even with so called globalization we still have by far the most powerful economy. We are the driving force of the world economy.

Butch, maybe we are the driving force of the world economy because we foolishly take on loads of personal consumer debt to credit card companies to buy things we want but don't really need.

But that wasn't my point. As I stated in the OP my concern for the US economy is that we are being hit by two perfect storms at the same time: 1) the outsourcing of production jobs, and 2) unprecedented technology revolution that is disrupting low skill jobs much faster than previous revolutions. A specific historical case in point:

In 1914 the US produced two thirds of the world's cotton. Sixteen million bales @ 600 lbs each. Cotton was an extremely labor intensive industry that relied on slaves before the Civil War and sharecroppers after the war.

WWI, but WWII especially, drew a large proportion of share croppers north to work in war production. Southern cotton growers grew desperate for mechanical cotton picking machines.

Between 1948 and the late 1960s, mechanical harvesting of the cotton crop went from essentially zero to 96 percent of the crop. The machines reduced the man-hours required to produce a cotton crop from 125 hours per acre to 25. It's estimated that each two-row cotton combine replaced about 80 share croppers and farm workers.

In a sense, the cotton combine completed the exodus of blacks from the rural South to the urban North.

But war production was cut back drastically through the 1970s and 1980s leaving those low skilled southern migrants out of jobs. Add to that the increasing flow of competitive, unskilled labor from Latin America and the growing outsourcing of production work to China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Mexico (with NAFTA) Our labor force found itself in a terrible bind at the low skill end especially.

But, Robotics and Artificial Intelligence threaten to nibble away increasingly at higher skilled jobs. Well, look at what automated teller machines have done to bank tellers and what mobile phones have done to switch board operators.

Both presidential candidates don't seem to grasp the reality of our economic labor problem. Labor is being commoditized and digitally automated at exceptionally rapid speed.

So, it is not simply a question of competition with China. Although, China is striving for greater consumer market strength and production and to assert itself as a military power player on the world stage.

COTTON

NEW TECHNOLOGY AFFECT ON JOBS



vincentML -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/12/2016 4:51:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Nnanji


quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML

quote:

Is it Chinese territorial waters?
We are to accept what the Chinese do and make accomodations for it but the Chinese should do what they want and give us nothing in return.

I didn't say that.

Maybe they feel threatened. Maybe there are historical issues.

But, the ex-CIA guy seems to think we are headed for a serious confrontation.

Historically, China hasn't had issues beyond their borders. That's pretty much come about recently with this regime.

Yes, I understand that, and i agree. However, I have read that there have been an astonishing number of peasant uprisings in China (covered up) due to poverty and wage disparity. My guess is that the Party is desperate to increase the middle class population and to project China as a world power. Only my guess. Also, they have been economically aggressive in Africa and South America. Right?



Termyn8or -> RE: What's Going On Here? (8/12/2016 9:15:38 PM)

"However, I have read that there have been an astonishing number of peasant uprisings in China (covered up) due to poverty and wage disparity"

Probably depends on what you call astonishing. The sewer "revolt", the government caved. I think they are maturing and realizing that happy slaves are more productive. And they do drive cars, some even with air conditioning. And they do not live in grass huts. Well some might in the sticks, but if you look at the sticks here you'll see people without running water etc. Probably not as many per capita but it is in no way a thing of the past. China is a big place. You know, we got electricity generated at alot of places in the US. Over there the costs of just the copper to bring electricity to some areas would be astronomical.

We got an asshole on Usenet who is a Phd but pretty dumb. He thinks he knows what is best for "America" but has never set foot here. He uses his own paradigm to form opinions on our healthcare and gun control, even education. He actually thinks more taxes will solve everything. He doesn't get it, pay the teachers a hundred grand a fucking year and you get a student publication titled "This Is Are Story". More money will fix nothing, and it never has.

Think the medical industry is bad here ? Look at the roads. Up in the north here, where we need the best roads possible because of the weather, we have the worst. We need absolutely waterproof pavement and proper drainage. They do it shitty to keep the need up for more taxes. If you get paid to solve a problem, once solved you are out of work.

There are cost overruns on everything. I bet when they send someone out to get lunch for everyone ad it is calculated so everybody should get change, they owe. New math. Liberal math. Not that the republicans are any better.

White Man is forgetting how to run things right, and as a result, others are going to take over. We will be extinct one day. And remember the scifi where this race doesn't know how to fix the machines their ancestors left ? That is where the Earth will be. We already can't fix much because of planned obsolescence. I work for factory service and cannot get parts for things that are still under factor warranty. No prints or service information. And we own half the fucking company.

This is done to keep people working, but that doesn't mean us, it means Chinese, Koreans, all that where they build the stuff.

Really, let it go. A country that has to borrow money and cannot pay it back is not going to last forever. The other problem is consumer debt. Government debt is bad enough, the THE PEOPLE owe another $12 trillion for their plasma TVs, smartphones and who the fuck knows. Boats n shit, fancy clothes, and probably a bunch of junk furniture like a $700 couch they find out is made out of matchsticks and cardboard. Cars that have practically no metal. Houses made out of styrofoam, I shit you not. Friend of mine practically had a career reattaching vinyl siding to a modern house because when the wind kicked up it would blow off of the steel studs. One I know bought a brand new house and the foundation literally broke ad the place was condemned before it was even paid off. Construction companies just go out of business and open up under a new name next year. So there is something wrong with the incorporation laws in this country as well. The way it is now the wrongdoers are isolated not only from loss of personal assets, but from criminal prosecution.

We need a fundamental change. Corporations sued to be persons, well then when shit happens put them in jail like the rest of us.

Enough.

T^T



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