MrRodgers -> RE: Do You Feel Safer 15 Years Later? (9/8/2016 3:33:25 PM)
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ORIGINAL: vincentML quote:
So an IS defeat in Iraq/Syria will more than likely cause IS to focus on attacks by sleeper cells in the West - it won't eliminate the threat. The battle may have been lost by IS but the war will rage on in a different format. It does seem reasonable to question the current strategy if it has failed to deliver any appreciable results in 15 years. Given its lack of success, surely we need to be adopting a new different strategy. Oil was discovered by a British Company in Iran in 1908. The rise of the automobile industry, the development of the airplane and the tank through WWI, and the necessity of armaments productions that lead to the spread of oil driven factories all contributed to the increasing value of oil. After WWI France and Britain carved up the Near East and added that land to their empires. Churchill desperately tried to hold the British Empire with his North African gambit in 1942. (Not to forget the horrendous loss of lives suffered by ANZAC, British and French troops at Gallipoli in 1915 by the folly of the same Sir Winston) At the end of WW2 the weakened European powers withdrew from the Near East, Israel was born anew, and the US set up the Shah of Iran. Through the Cold War we supported dictators around the world out of fear of the Soviets. In a master demonstration of nearsightedness, depending upon one's political affiliation, American pols blame the current turmoil on GW Bush for invading Iraq and B. Obama for withdrawing too soon. At the moment we have two presidential candidates vowing to fight ISIS to the death. It seems to me that the recent and current disruptions are the predictable outcomes of decolonization and rebellion against dictatorship. We were wrong to continue supporting Israel as its Settlement Movement spread. We were wrong on the Shah, on Iraq, and now on al Assad. In the meanwhile gobs of oil have been removed from the ground in the States and Canada (resulting in horrible pollution of the soil, water, and air, and maybe the cause of earthquakes in Oklahoma) The price of oil is falling as supply overflows. Our Vice-President, Joe Biden, reminds us frankly that ISIS is not an existential threat to our nation. We ought to get the hell out. But that is highly unlikely. No politician is willing to face the unknown immediate consequences. I disagree. It doesn't have anything to do with nearsightedness but rather incompetent warmongering. Signing a Status of Forces Agreement requiring the full withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Iraq on a fixed three year timeline demonstrated a real flexibility on Bush’s part. (2008) See how easy it is to be a partisan cheerleader for the guy you support then, only for the right to denigrate the guy who's left (since 2012) to clean up the resulting chaos...that they don't ? It is largely thanks to Bush’s acceptance of his own bargaining failure that Barack Obama will inherit a plausible route to successful disengagement from Iraq. Oh yea ? How quickly they forget. HERE Disastrous decisions and the first that helped create ISIS ? Bush tapped L. Paul Bremer, a former U.S ambassador and well known Reagan-era official to head it. In his first days in office Bremer issued two orders that would plunge Iraq into chaos. The first order put 50,000 civil servants of the Hussein regime out of work. The second order disbanded the Iraqi military that numbered around 500,000 people and allowed the unemployed former soldiers to keep their weapons.Dexter Filkins, a Pulitzer prize winning war correspondent who covered Iraq for The New York Times, called the dissolution of the Iraqi Army “probably the single most catastrophic decision of the American venture in Iraq.” HERE Everything one could imagine as what might be wrong with Iraq today and the Iraq/Syrian/ISIS problem and for more than 3 years, is ALL and I mean ALL the fault of GWB and his right repub political support. Isn't it so politically precious how so easy it is to blame the guy that his hands tied behind his back with the 2008 SOFA and a recalcitrant congress, that it is all now, supposed to be the new guy's fault ? ISIS is not an existential threat to the US. ISIS was immediately empowered by and logistically made possible by what GWB and the US left behind in Iraq. Getting the hell out of the ME doesn't fit the new US war-on-terror, foreign policy creed...war first, diplomacy second.
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