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RE: Tax havens could be on the way out - 9/18/2016 7:07:20 PM   
MrRodgers


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quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
The problem with oil as with all fossil fuels are the subsidies and tax credits which according to various studies place them at in excess of $5 trillion per year worldwide. Oil and any other commodities are not examples of the benefits of foreign trade. All commodities are subject to paper speculation and all too often does not reflect actual supply and demand irrespective of their various origins. It is that speculation that shows no mercy.


How do you prevent/stop speculation? Isn't any all investing little more than speculation? Isn't most (not all) saving speculation?

quote:

If we are heading into yet another recession, it will reflect once again our economic sensitivity to debt and interest rates i.e., the cost of capital. Most recoveries are sustained by increasing debt as most recessions are caused by lack of debt.


I mostly agree. Debt levels, however, will be controlled (mostly) by interest rates, so I see interest rates as more important. Low interest rates will lead to more spending as the future value of the money will be lower than it would be at a higher interest rate. This will tend towards misallocation of resources, which is really what creates the bubble.

The Fed (and it's policies) is at the heart of almost all our recessions.


On speculation ? NO. Speculation is mere paper trading with essentially no investor ever taking actual possession of a commodity. It is short term, does not create jobs and draws away investment capital from building things and doing things. We should tax all paper profits at 50% with the only exception of real investment in real start-ups. Most investing is speculation, meaning short term.

Futures should be taxed at 50%, stocks and bonds the same. Only true start-up capital should get a break.

Interest rates we essentially agree on but there haven't been a wide swings in them or inflation. So the fed rate is a dull blunt intrument for economic adjustment.

_____________________________

You can be a murderous tyrant and the world will remember you fondly but fuck one horse and you will be a horse fucker for all eternity. Catherine the Great

Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.
J K Galbraith

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 41
RE: Tax havens could be on the way out - 9/19/2016 4:52:55 AM   
DesideriScuri


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Joined: 1/18/2012
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quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
Interest rates we essentially agree on but there haven't been a wide swings in them or inflation. So the fed rate is a dull blunt intrument for economic adjustment.


2% (goal) inflation might not be a "wide swing," but compounded yearly, sure does add up, no?


_____________________________

What I support:

  • A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
  • Limited Government
  • Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to MrRodgers)
Profile   Post #: 42
RE: Tax havens could be on the way out - 9/20/2016 11:51:54 AM   
MrRodgers


Posts: 10542
Joined: 7/30/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
Interest rates we essentially agree on but there haven't been a wide swings in them or inflation. So the fed rate is a dull blunt intrument for economic adjustment.


2% (goal) inflation might not be a "wide swing," but compounded yearly, sure does add up, no?


All interest adds up and 2% we have to admit is at or about 50-60 year lows. Yes, before the fed there was almost no inflation but society wasn't subject to such speculation in commodities that society is now as John Adams warned way back...slave to.

_____________________________

You can be a murderous tyrant and the world will remember you fondly but fuck one horse and you will be a horse fucker for all eternity. Catherine the Great

Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.
J K Galbraith

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 43
RE: Tax havens could be on the way out - 9/20/2016 12:54:08 PM   
DesideriScuri


Posts: 12225
Joined: 1/18/2012
Status: offline
quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
Interest rates we essentially agree on but there haven't been a wide swings in them or inflation. So the fed rate is a dull blunt intrument for economic adjustment.

2% (goal) inflation might not be a "wide swing," but compounded yearly, sure does add up, no?

All interest adds up and 2% we have to admit is at or about 50-60 year lows. Yes, before the fed there was almost no inflation but society wasn't subject to such speculation in commodities that society is now as John Adams warned way back...slave to.


So, speculation in commodities is what is causing inflation? I agree it has an effect, but I do think a much larger impact is Fed policy.

Any ideas on how to stop speculation?


_____________________________

What I support:

  • A Conservative interpretation of the US Constitution
  • Personal Responsibility
  • Help for the truly needy
  • Limited Government
  • Consumption Tax (non-profit charities and food exempt)

(in reply to MrRodgers)
Profile   Post #: 44
RE: Tax havens could be on the way out - 9/20/2016 9:50:03 PM   
MrRodgers


Posts: 10542
Joined: 7/30/2005
Status: offline

quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri

quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
quote:

ORIGINAL: DesideriScuri
quote:

ORIGINAL: MrRodgers
Interest rates we essentially agree on but there haven't been a wide swings in them or inflation. So the fed rate is a dull blunt intrument for economic adjustment.

2% (goal) inflation might not be a "wide swing," but compounded yearly, sure does add up, no?

All interest adds up and 2% we have to admit is at or about 50-60 year lows. Yes, before the fed there was almost no inflation but society wasn't subject to such speculation in commodities that society is now as John Adams warned way back...slave to.


So, speculation in commodities is what is causing inflation? I agree it has an effect, but I do think a much larger impact is Fed policy.

Any ideas on how to stop speculation?


Yea, disincentives. Tax it. Tax all paper-trading that serves no economic purpose.

But except as I wrote, such 'paper' as it were, needed for real start-ups. The whole original economic theory being selling stock (a piece of ownership) was to raise debt-free capital. (the real economic benefit of which is again...start-ups, i.e., new jobs)

Now with online and especially speed trading, it is all purely and merely, extremely short term profits. Many economists write now that far too much capital that could be put to better use, is tied up looking for quick financial profits. GE for example and now for years, makes more money in financial transactions, than on actually building something.

Here's yet another example. Recall when oil took off. 1st qtr of that year, futures in oil went from about typically $80 billion to $280 billion and mainly because the oil cos. had to jump in.

APRIL 10, 2012

They should be banned from the world’s commodity exchanges, which could drive down the price of oil by as much as 40 percent and the price of gasoline by as much as $1 a gallon.

According to Congressional testimony by the commodities specialist Michael W. Masters in 2009, the oil futures markets routinely trade more than one billion barrels of oil per day. Given that the entire world produces only around 85 million actual “wet” barrels a day, this means that more than 90 percent of trading involves speculators’ exchanging “paper” barrels with one another.

Pure speculators account for as much as 40 percent of that high price, according to testimony that Rex Tillerson, the chief executive of ExxonMobil, gave to Congress last year. That estimate is bolstered by a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Congress was jolted into action when it learned of the full extent of Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s lax oversight. In the wake of the economic crisis, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform law required greater trading transparency and limited speculators who lacked a legitimate business-hedging purpose to positions of no greater than 25 percent of the futures market.

Still not enough.

HERE

_____________________________

You can be a murderous tyrant and the world will remember you fondly but fuck one horse and you will be a horse fucker for all eternity. Catherine the Great

Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite.
J K Galbraith

(in reply to DesideriScuri)
Profile   Post #: 45
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