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Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 2:17:11 AM   
tweakabelle


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Status: offline 		As leading Republicans continue to dissociate themselves from their Presidential candidate Trump, the party seems certain to lose the White House for another 4 years. Nate Silver's highly regarded 538 site rates a Clinton victory as 84% probable. At this stage no one knows how damage much the Trump effect will do to the GOP's grip on both houses of Congress but losing control of the Senate, at a minimum, seems likely.

Behind the public facade, the differing elements that make up the GOP old style conservatives, Evangelical Christians, hard right nationalists (inc. a considerable racist xenophobic core), neo cons and so on are at war with each other over the future direction and control of the party. Trump's demise is opening the cracks in that facade and threaten to split it wide open. At this point it seems difficult to believe that the recriminations following the Trump disaster will be resolved without a serious realignment of forces on the Right.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/is-this-what-it-looks-like-when-a-party-falls-apart/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

Can the GOP survive the electoral losses and internal warfare? Is coalition between the various factions no longer tenable? Will the party split between its moderate and radical wings? Is there a future for the GOP as currently constituted or is it time for a radical realignment of political forces on the Right?

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 4:35:32 AM   
WhoreMods


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Status: offline 		As far as Republican control of Congress goes, it's quite possible that a win for the circus peanut will have worse consequences for that than Clinton becoming the President will. Is the spectacle of a Republican President at permanent loggerheads with the bulk of Republican Senators and Congressmen unprecedented, in the event that the tiny-handed shitweasel does manage to win the election next month?

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 5:55:12 AM   
jlf1961


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Status: offline 		The GOP was fractured even before Trump hit the campaign trail, look at how moderates had to cater to the tea party.

Historically speaking, the GOP has been setting itself up for a radical split since the Reagan era, splitting over issues that seemed almost insignificant at the outset and turned into major problems.

The truth is that both parties are in need of a complete revitalization, if not a re evaluation of the core values.

By shifting to cater to the extreme views from the far left or right, each party has strayed so far from their core values and beliefs that they have paralyzed the US government with congressional grid lock and nothing is getting done.

Of course, the present presidential campaign is a clear indication of just how insane US politics has become, and worse, what it says about American society as a whole.

A drunken Hollywood script writer on acid couldn't come up with this shit.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 6:15:11 AM   
Lucylastic


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Status: offline 		Its over for this election, unless.....
They deserve every cringe inducing moment.
They bought it onto themselves, its been coming since bush.
They have ignored the anger and now they are reaping the rewards.
Hair Drumpf makes palin look sane.And lets not forget what a complete moron she is.
Karma has only just started payback.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 7:09:25 AM   
WhoreMods


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Status: offline 		I'm with Lucy on this, jlf: anybody in the GOP who can't recognise that the circus peanut's election campaign is the natural (some might even say inevitable) result of the crap the tea party were slinging around during the previous two elections has to be so breath-takingly stupid that the mere fact that they're allowed to vote is a lot more frightening than anything the tiny-handed shitweasel has come out over the last twelve months.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 7:42:57 AM   
tweakabelle


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Status: offline 		There is an argument that the GOP's gerrymander instead of guaranteeing it power has in fact acted against it obtaining power. The argument goes like this: In gerrymandering the vote the GOP artificially created a large number of seats where its voters were in the majority. In these constituencies, the right had an influence well beyond their numbers, which resulted in the successes of the Tea Party movement, which drove the GOP further to the right.

However this movement to the right meant that the GOP couldn't expand its broader appeal outside of the House of Reps. Control of the Senate flipped back and forth - as Senators were elected in State-wide (and therefore gerrymander-proofed) constituencies. In general elections, the need to pander to the base resulted in more and more extreme Right wingers being nominated, culminating with Trump, who is extremely popular with the GOP base but scorned almost universally outside the GOP base. So the best the gerrymander could deliver the GOP was control of the House of Reps, sometime control of the Senate but forget about the White House. Obama's coalition of women and minorities will always have the numbers.

Now GOP candidates are torn between discarding Trump and making themselves more widely electable but only at the risk of alienating their base (and losing the base votes they need). Personally I cannot see the party surviving the Trump experiment. Trump has amplified this contradiction and made the shortcomings of the current situation so crystal clear that some action must be taken. The autopsies after Clinton's victory will focus on this dilemma, but there is no resolution. The base is immovable and so to be acceptable to the base is to be more or less automatically unacceptable to almost every one else.

The GOP will collapse as the unitary party of the Right, with some defections to the Libetarians, and other defections to the moderate centre seems like the most likely outcome.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 7:49:57 AM   
vincentML


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Status: offline 		History mitigates against it. We have seen this circus before.

In 1964 the Republicans held a bitter and divisive Convention in San Francisco. The contention was between the moderate wing of the party and the radical right wing of the party ~ the moderate Rockefeller and the radical right Goldwater. Goldwater became the candidate and went on to lose in a landslide to President Johnson. But, the Republicans returned and won in 1968 with Nixon.

In 1948 The Democratic Party was split three ways. President Truman proposed a civil rights doctrine and was a fierce cold warrior. The Progressive Party split off from the Democrats and nominated Henry Wallace (formerly Roosevelt's VP) Henry was far to the Left, a Russian sympathizer at least if not a Communist Party puppet (the claim was made) In the South the States Rights Democratic Party (the Dixiecrats) ran Strom Thurmond on a platform of maintaining racial segregation. Truman won the election. Eisenhower gained a Republican victory in 1952 but the Dems were back in 1960 with Kennedy's presidency.

The Federalists never recovered from their loss to Jefferson in 1800(?) That's true. Not sure what the issue was there.

The only party I know of who destroyed itself was the Whigs who had been ascendant through the 1820s and 1850s. They could not resolve themselves over the issue of slavery in the new territories and over Abolition. The dissolution of the Whigs led to a four way race for the presidency in 1860, to Lincoln's victory, to the secession of the eleven southern states, and to the Civil War.

My guess is that the current issues that divide the Reps and the nation are not significantly important enough to cause the Republican Party to become permanently fractured. They will remain the minority Presidential party however.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 8:06:57 AM   
WickedsDesire


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Status: offline 		I have never actually read Alice in Wonderland which you can download free public domain copyright expired etc Is it worth a read I like only 9-10/10 anyone? Tis why I never read and can barely command my crayon - no matter

The GOP is somewhat diverse - hmm your words are too kind wicked - thinks. Ah! skin deep do you remember the cock fighting scene anyone?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ky5u6vm44ak I loved that film :)

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 8:57:12 AM   
WhoreMods


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Status: offline 		Both the Alice books are well worth reading. I'd also recommend The Hunting of the Snark (probably Carroll's masterpiece) and most of Phantasmogoria. Avoid Sylvie and Bruno like the plague though: that one's a heap of shit. I think Carroll only wrote it to prove that he could too compete with mind-numbingly dull Victorian children's writers like Kingsley.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 10:00:19 AM   
Lucylastic


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Status: offline 		I read both as a kid, seven i tink, but read them again in nursing school...much deeper appreciation of him

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 10:34:32 AM   
Termyn8or


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The republicans will never be out of it as long as the democrats are how they are. There are too many people who will not vote democrat no matter what, and there are people who understand that we need someone to stop the more ultraliberal democrats from regulating when we can take a shit.

If they had any brains they could really win. Stop voting to repeal the ACA, vote to amend it. Stop with the religion bullshit. Stop with the abortion bullshit. Cut the military budget and pull back and use that money for infrastructure, like abortomats on every corner. Just stick your feet in the stirrups honey and you'll be out of here in three minutes. And quit taking money from AIPAC. Quit attacking other countries. Not that the democrats are perfect about that but Obama did fight enormous pressure from Israel and their lobby to attack Iran, which is an enormous mistake even if they do pursue nukes. But the ACA is still a fucking mess and he signed it. But most republicans would have had boots on the ground in Iran by now, with Israel pulling their strings.

but that's neither here nor there, there are some people who will vote for senators and congressmen of the other party just to slow government down. It happened to Obama. Democrats had complete control for how long ? Until the election. Some people understand this.

T^T

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 10:37:05 AM   
WhoreMods


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Lucylastic

I read both as a kid, seven i tink, but read them again in nursing school...much deeper appreciation of him

I've heard it suggested that the mark of a truly great children's book is that you can reread it again (possibly finding stuff you missed as a child) years later and enjoy it just as much (or even more) the second time. Carroll owns that one, imo.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 11:27:19 AM   
Lucylastic


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Status: offline 		Cant disagree there, mind you i do re read so many books anyway.
Cs lewis did it too. For me at least,


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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 11:43:48 AM   
ThatDizzyChick


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No, I suspect that the GOP will survive intact, though it may well lose some of it's more right wing elements to the Libertarians. I do think that it will be an increasingly minority party over the next decade or so, at least on the national level, though they seem to be pretty strong at the state level.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 12:10:46 PM   
Awareness


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Status: offline 		No. There's a consistent level of opposition to the SJW nannying of the left and that opposition will always find a home.

The Democratic Party's lack of diversity will always be its undoing.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 6:16:28 PM   
DesideriScuri


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I've been on these boards since January 2012. There have been arguments discussions about the GOP never going to win the Presidency because it wasn't inclusive enough. Now, it's the Democrat party that isn't diverse enough (Post#15), the differing elements of the GOP (Post#1), or the GOP being the unitary party of the right (Post#6)? Good Lord, people! Make up your minds!

Any party should have the planks of it's platform, defined by it's party leadership. Those planks should be, relatively, unchanging. The Party leadership should have the authority to accept or deny anyone's campaigning under the Party name, based on the acceptance of the party planks. If a candidate's beliefs don't align well enough with the party's planks, then that candidate should be barred from running for that party's nomination. If a voter is voting for a person that doesn't line up with a party's platform, isn't that a sign that that voter isn't really a member of that party? You have the moniker, RINO, demonstrating that there are actual elected "Republican" representatives that don't line up with the Republican Party platform all that well.

I also realize that any Party that starts to adhere relatively strictly to core planks is a party that's going to lose a lot of voters. However, that would likely lead to a greater number of parties, which I absolutely am in favor of.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 6:18:20 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

ORIGINAL: Awareness

No. There's a consistent level of opposition to the SJW nannying of the left and that opposition will always find a home.

The Democratic Party's lack of diversity will always be its undoing.

I applaud the diversity of the GOP: tall and short angry white people and young and old angry white people.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 6:23:23 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

I also realize that any Party that starts to adhere relatively strictly to core planks is a party that's going to lose a lot of voters. However, that would likely lead to a greater number of parties, which I absolutely am in favor of.

We have had this discussion before I think.

We are not a parliamentary system where party coalitions are formed after the election.

Consequently, in the US system coalitions are formed within the parties.

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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 6:51:08 PM   
DesideriScuri


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quote:

ORIGINAL: vincentML
quote:

I also realize that any Party that starts to adhere relatively strictly to core planks is a party that's going to lose a lot of voters. However, that would likely lead to a greater number of parties, which I absolutely am in favor of.

We have had this discussion before I think.
We are not a parliamentary system where party coalitions are formed after the election.
Consequently, in the US system coalitions are formed within the parties.


You're right. We aren't a parliamentary system. We are supposed to have representatives in government, though. If the GOP and Democrat Party don't have nominees that represent my beliefs, then what? What happens when the coalition within a party fractures enough that the party gets split? In Toledo, there were a few elections where the two candidates both clung to the Democrat Party moniker, but the difference was that one was an "A Team" Democrat, and the other was a "B Team" Democrat.

Trumps are what you're going to get when you try to build a coalition among groups that are too diverse.


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RE: Is it over for the GOP? - 10/12/2016 7:27:01 PM   
vincentML


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quote:

Trumps are what you're going to get when you try to build a coalition among groups that are too diverse.

The formation of a party's coalitions here are organic I think not formal. It depends on who shows up to vote for your candidate, or doesn't.

I never thought of the GOP as a diverse, big tent party let alone it being too diverse. Maybe you can enlighten me.

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