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Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak In ... - 1/8/2017 1:26:37 AM   
heavyblinker


Posts: 3623
Status: offline 		A professor used Cliodynamics, which "treats history as just another science.", to predict that political and social instability will be the result of a pronounced gap between the elites and the rest of society, and that Trump's policies will make it much worse.

http://today.uconn.edu/2016/12/using-social-science-to-predict-the-future/

quote:

Increasing inequality leads not only to the growth of top fortunes; it also results in greater numbers of wealth-holders. The ‘1 percent’ becomes ‘2 percent.’ Or even more. … from 1983 to 2010 the number of American households worth at least $10 million grew to 350,000 from 66,000. Rich Americans tend to be more politically active than the rest of the population. … In technical terms, such a situation is known as ‘elite overproduction.’ … Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the political class. This happens because the more contenders there are, the more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite-wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions.
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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/8/2017 1:42:02 AM   
PeonForHer


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Status: offline 		He goes a little weird later in the article, talking about Isaac Asimov's Second Foundation ... but that's an interesting analysis. It doesn't seem immediately counterintuitive to me, anyway. As for those divisions amongst both dems and reps ... it's going to be interesting watching where that turmoil will end up.

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/8/2017 6:52:44 AM   
WhoreMods


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Status: offline 		I like the reference to Asimov: the author's actually got the decency to admit that his own multidisciplinary predictive pseudoscience is akin to one that Asimov made up in the '40s. (Also, if Turchin is casting himself as Hari Seldon, then that makes el presidente the Mule, which is a comparison left-leaningSF fans have been making since the tiny-handed shitweasel first started his campaign.)

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/8/2017 8:48:02 AM   
WickedsDesire


Posts: 9362
Joined: 11/4/2015
Status: offline 		Never read him :). never read much scifi truth be told - was he the space elevator dude or was that ACC - the goodies did they do an episode?

What the hell is Cliodynamics and does it need a shot of penicillin and dont answer "transdisciplinary discipline” or i will thrash you, verily, with the ugly stick.

History is bumf and most of it is missing. So his foundation/some of his papers seem to have no actual foundation so to speak and therefore he is extrapolating malarkey

Pseudoscience gets a bad rap - granted a lot of cobblers in that, just not all. But i dont see a great difference between that and actual science/taught-History. But I have wondered what 10 000 years, not that history goes that far back, of no war would look like - oh wait I forget I say all great civilizations fall - and they do you know. The natives are indeed restless - usual suspects are wealth religion war mongering. And come a meteor strike, a naughty solar flare/storm we are truly fuked. Us "civilized" folks will never recover. Some say this has happened before/cyclic. And most people forget regrading over 2000 flood myths one of the common running themes through it was man became rapscalliion and too naughty for earth and god(s) sent forth the deluge to wipe out humanity inequity....oh ancient aliens is shit well most of it..graham hancocks actually not to bad....a of you lot tried him?

Anyhoos the "deluge" takes us back roughly 12 000 years - which is what recorded history is - granted most of it is missing and I am not going to ramble about 1984 or if some mad biological germ mutates or is let lose etc and if calculators become sentient....etc..or if huwmans have already wrecked the planet

Many of you know I typically refer to society as a pyramid scheme - and in days not long ago that as enough for revelation- oh wait I mean revoloution

As the article mentions the one they called trump-revelations-hes fuking in it you know. Is he elitist class - which is usually the 1% i am not so sure. Does he aspire to be - i think so.

< Message edited by WickedsDesire -- 1/8/2017 8:49:44 AM >

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/8/2017 8:52:15 AM   
WhoreMods


Posts: 10691
Joined: 5/6/2016
Status: offline 		The space elevator was Arthur C Clarke. Asimov was the guy who was big on robots.

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/8/2017 9:06:43 AM   
BoscoX


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Status: offline 		We need a hope and change president

Someone who will mend race relations, calm the tensions in the Mideast, cut our massive deficits and make the world love us again

Fix our broken health insurance nightmare, and give our record 95,102,000 Americans who are not participating the work force a beacon of promise

Perhaps build a massive infrastructure of insane asylums for a generation of lost, riotous snowflakes who cannot live with free and fair elections

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/8/2017 8:14:21 PM   
tamaka


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quote:

ORIGINAL: BoscoX

We need a hope and change president

Someone who will mend race relations, calm the tensions in the Mideast, cut our massive deficits and make the world love us again

Fix our broken health insurance nightmare, and give our record 95,102,000 Americans who are not participating the work force a beacon of promise

Perhaps build a massive infrastructure of insane asylums for a generation of lost, riotous snowflakes who cannot live with free and fair elections


Maybe if the government subsidized the airline industry and gave everyone a round trip airline ticket once a year we could solve some of these problems.

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/9/2017 5:05:44 AM   
BoscoX


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Status: offline 		Or just gave the small minority who continue rioting and bitch-festing a one-way ticket to their dream socialist destination, Venezuela

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/9/2017 5:17:19 AM   
heavyblinker


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quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
Maybe if the government subsidized the airline industry and gave everyone a round trip airline ticket once a year we could solve some of these problems.


On a not-so-completely-unrelated-note, Hitler was big on subsidized vacations.

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/9/2017 5:31:48 AM   
BoscoX


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quote:

ORIGINAL: heavyblinker

quote:

ORIGINAL: tamaka
Maybe if the government subsidized the airline industry and gave everyone a round trip airline ticket once a year we could solve some of these problems.


On a not-so-completely-unrelated-note, Hitler was big on subsidized vacations.


He was also big on torturing and even eliminating special needs kids, especially if they weren't the chosen race

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/9/2017 5:58:55 AM   
servantforuse


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Status: offline 		Lets just expand Gitmo instead. Thanks to Obama there is plenty of room there now.

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RE: Social Instability and Political Violence Will Peak... - 1/9/2017 6:01:26 AM   
Musicmystery


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Status: offline 		...and let's move Congress there.

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