tweakabelle
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quote:
ORIGINAL: longwayhome
quote:
ORIGINAL: tweakabelle
Not too long ago, in the wake of Trump's victory and Brexit, it seemed that right wing populism was all the go. Now after the dramatic loss in France to Macron, and the UK electorate giving the Right a severe hiding (especially UKIP, which seems to have been all but destroyed) in this election, it seems that the rise of right wing populism has been stemmed and that it is in retreat. The allegedly unelectable leftist Corbyn was a big winner with people, especially young voters, warming to his policies promoting common peoples interests, a strong NHS and more public services - all of which are anathema to the Right.
None of this ought to be a surprise - when people look at the disaster that Trump is inflicting on the US and world and the ongoing failure of 'trickle down' economic policies everywhere, right wing populism doesn't present an attractive or seductive option any longer.
It is nice to see people are turning against and voting against hate and division.
I really like your analysis, tweak, and would like to believe that this is part of a trend against right wind populism across Europe, however a couple of things worry me.
Firstly, and perhaps a bit paradoxically, May's election failure might give more strength to the Conservative right wing. May was partly held back in her more centrist business policies against exploitation and for a softer Brexit by the right wing of her own party who she sought to break free of by gaining a big majority. Rather than seeing that the majority of people in the UK have just voted for soft Brexit and asking the people to approve a Brexit deal will be lost on these zealots who will only see a weakened Prime Minister as an opportunity to rally the party, which is more right wing than most Conservative voters. The political reality is that May cannot go back to the country in another vote so the politics of the Conservative party become more important than public sentiment. Any leadership contest will return a significantly more right wing candidate than May, just because that is reflects the power balance in the party.
Secondly there is a long way to go to refashion new political allegiances despite the appearance of a return to two party politics. The sizeable minority who like nationalistic populism have indeed been excluded from power in the UK for a long time but they have always been very vocal, despite the arrant nonsense that they have been stopped from expressing racist and non-politically correct thoughts. The 20 percent or so who hate foreigners, immigrants and don't mind who knows it were at the heart of the Brexit vote, joined by voters with less extreme views. The problem is that here, as in the US, once this group were united in a single movement, the voices of the moderates who became their bedfellows were soon drowned out. That is why you can't even mention wanting to stay in the EU any more without some offensive bastard telling you that the decision is made, you are behind the times and anti-British, and you need to shut up soon. Almost everyone in UK politics is terrified of this groundswell. As a consequnce, despite 48 percent voting to remain, politicians of every party (except the Liberals and the SNP) are too afraid even to suggest that the people might want to vote on the resulting Brexit deal. (Seems democratic and fair but what do I know?)
Last week's election has indeed shown the quiet fightback of remainers and the minority of people who voted for Brexit who thought we would come out of it with a trade deal and staying friends with Europe. Put together these people forms a large majority for a soft Brexit and that is how they voted last week, helped by the increased turnout by younger voters. I also think that the reaction to the terror attacks was overwhelmingly about community cohesion (if you ignore the usual anti-Muslim internet warriors) and this actually spurred people on to vote against UKIP and right wing politics.
Here's the rub though - Brexit was voted for by oldies. They voted to deny people in their 20s and 30s the future they so clearly wanted. It was only people in their 50s and above who voted by a majority for Brexit. Yet still it is only their voice you can hear, shouting that they want no deal with Brussels and that any concessions or a further vote on any deal is tantamount to treason. There is not a big enough centre-left or centre-right consensus for either of these groups of voters be translated into a viable government majority to hold power.
In the absence of a centre left or centre right majority, the nationalist populists in practice hold the balance of voter power for both major parties. These people include the UKIP vote which has returned to Labour voters in the north and Wales and the Tories elsewhere. Neither party can be elected without the support of these people (and they represent a large proportion of members of the Conservative party as opposed to Conservative voters). To cap it all May also now relies on the DUP, probably the most illiberal party in the UK.
The result is unfortunately is that the populists will probably still be the loudest voice in the UK and May will be forced into an even harder Brexit than she previously feared.
Thank you for a thoughtful and considered response. Such responses are getting rarer here as the dumbing down effect of a strident Right flows through political discourse everywhere.
Political events are moving so rapidly that it takes a brave person to predict future directions with any certainty. Look at France where a new centrist movement is sweeping away the dual right and left wing edifices that have dominated since the end of WWII. It seems both blocs in the UK are divided over Brexit. The election strengthened Corbyn while it appears at the time of writing to have weakened May considerably, perhaps terminally. It is impossible to rule out the emergence of a new centrist movement a la Macron's focusing on remain, on social justice and an end to austerity. The deferment of Trump's visit is one indication of the new breeze sweeping through Westminister. But it seems to me you are correct to suggest this outcome is unlikely at the moment. It may take a lot more heartache before this option becomes a realistic possibility.
From where I sit, it is far from certain that the election result has strengthened the Right in the Tory Party. The revolt against the DUP alliance is one indicator that regression to the old politics is not an option for the Tories. In a tight Parliament the precarious balance offers equal opportunities to both wings of the Tories, and they both seem to be aware that the electorate has no desire to revert to the old ways of picking on minorities. The demise of UKIP seems to me to underline this interpretation of events. However it must be added that everything seems to be in a flux at the moment, that uncertainty prevails everywhere and a lot of outcomes, many of them less than desirable are possible. It's also worth noting that the result certainly strengthened the Left on the other side of politics (some might say rejuvenated!) And all the analyses I have read are suggesting that the possibility of a hard Brexit has almost disappeared - May's election setback taking it off the agenda. Only the old hard Right of the Tories are still holding out for this option - it's clear the electorate has no stomach for it.
A lot will depend on how Corbyn takes advantage of events now that they are falling in his favour after several hard years. He strikes me as a sincere rather than strategic politician and I am not sure he has the tactical or strategic skills to optimise the Left's position. However he has confounded many, and there is no doubt that his persona and policies (and his anti-populism) have struck a deep chord in the electorate, especially among the young. Perhaps he may be the ideal person to usher in a new type of politics - analogous to Macron in France ...
In the long run, I think we will be looking back at current events as the days when right wing populism began to fade as a serious political force in the West. And if that proves to be the case then we can only be thankful.
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RE: UK election Result June 8th 2017– Hung parliament - 
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